SWEEP! Great day on the NHL for me yesterday, sweeping the board, going 9-0 to win 6.24 units, capping off a 16-1 weekend for me. Let’s continue this great run tonight with this six game slate!
Sabres vs. Canadiens (7:00)
My Sabres might just fuck around and make the playoffs. They’ve won their last two games in a row to get back to improve to 35-31-6 on the season, just six points back from Pittsburgh with a game in hand for the final Wild Card spot in the East, coming off an impressive 2-0 shutout win on Long Island in what was actually a more entertaining game that the 0-0 score till less than 6:30 left in regulation would seem like. Buffalo’s young offense has been incredible this season but the defense and goaltending has really been a struggle. They have a pretty favorable matchup at home tonight with the Habs coming to town. Montreal has struggled this season heavily on both ends of the ice and are in last place in the Atlantic Division with a 29-38-6 record. They’re coming off a huge 8-2 win against the Blue Jackets on Saturday (easy winner on my over), just their third win in their last 13 games. These teams split their two previous games this season both winning on the road, with a 3-2 Canadiens win in Buffalo on October 27th and the Sabres answering back with a 7-2 win in Montreal on November 22nd. I like the Sabres to win at home tonight and will lay the juice on them for half a unit. I like the over even better though and will take the alternate over 6.5 for a unit.
Senators vs. Panthers (7:00)
Although this isn’t the best matchup, I think this should be a really fun game. The Panthers have surged up the standing, sitting three points behind Pittsburgh for the second Wild Card spot in the East with a 36-30-7 record but they’re on a three game losing streak after a 4-3 loss at home to the Rangers (winner on my over) on Saturday. Florida has once again been fantastic offensively this season but they’ve had plenty of struggles on the back end. The Senators have only won two of their last nine games, falling to 35-33-5 on the season, coming off a 5-3 loss in New Jersey on Saturday evening. Ottawa’s been decent offensively this year, but they’ve struggled on the back end. The Panthers won the first game between these teams 5-3 at home on October 29th. I like them to win once again on the road tonight and will take them for half a unit. I’m also right back on the over here, laying the pretty heavy -165 juice on the alternate over 6.5 for a unit.
Islanders vs. Devils (7:30)
This should be a great defensive matchup between two Metro Division teams currently in playoff spots. I broke this game down in depth in my article on StatSalt and as I said in that article, I give a huge offensive edge to the Devils and expect them to win on the road, which I’ll take for half a unit. I also like the under, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Wild vs. Kraken (8:00)
I’d expect another fun matchup here between these two Western Conference playoff teams, both having great seasons. I broke it down in depth in my article on StatSalt. Like I said in that article, I expect the Wild to continue their impressive streak, having picked up at least a point in 18 of their last 19 games and will take them for half a unit. They’re coming off a huge winner for me on the puck line on Saturday where Ryan Hartman scored the game winner in a tied 1-1 game with just 1:11 left in regulation and Freddy Gaudreau iced the game off and hit the puck line on the empty net. I’d slightly lean the under in this game but not enough to bet it.
Ducks vs. Avalanche (10:00)
This is a pretty terrible matchup with a huge mismatch. The Avalanche are having a great season in defending their Stanley Cup, currently in second place in the Central Division, a point behind the Wild. Yesterday the Avs needed a shootout to get a 4-3 win on the road in Arizona against the Coyotes (easy win for me on the Yotes +2.5) and they’ve won eight of their last nine games. Colorado’s offense, which was struggling mightily earlier this season has coming to life and has been very good lately while their defense and goaltending has been great all year. The Ducks are one of the worst teams in the NHL, firmly in the Bedard sweepstakes with a 23-40-10 record. Coming off a 6-3 loss at home to the Blues on Saturday night, they’re on a four game losing streak with just two wins in their last ten games. Anaheim is statistically one of the worst team sin the NHL on both ends of the ice. Earlier this season in the first game between these teams in Colorado on January 26th, the Ducks pulled off a big upset on the road winning 5-3. Even in the second half of a back to back, I like the Avalanche to answer back with a win tonight on the road. The moneyline at -265 is a bit too expensive for me but I’ll take the Avs in regulation and the Avs team total over 3.5 for half a unit each. I’d lean the over on the game but not enough to bet it.
Coyotes vs. Oilers (10:00)
This isn’t a great Western Conference matchup tonight between two teams on opposite ends of the standings, but it could be a fun game. The Coyotes gave me a nice win yesterday to start off the Sunday slate, easily covering my +2.5 puck line in a 4-3 shootout loss at home to the Avs. Arizona’s now on a four game losing streak but they’re playing themselves a bit farther away from the Bedard sweepstakes, having picked up at least a point in ten of their last twelve games. They have a 27-34-13 record now and have played surprisingly well at home with a 20-11-4 at the Mullett Arena. The Yotes have statistically been horrible on both ends of the ice. The Oilers are having a fantastic season, currently in third place in the Pacific Division with a 41-23-9 record. They had a five game win streak come to an end on Saturday with a 4-3 overtime loss at home to the Golden Knights (winner for me on the over to cap off a hell of a day), but they’re still on a six game point streak and have a 9-2-1 record in their last eleven games. Led by the best player in the world in Connor McDavid, who’s running away with the Hart Trophy and likely the Rocket Richard, Edmonton has easily the best offense in the NHL, firing at an unreal level. Their defense and goaltending has been pretty inconsistent though. The Oilers won both previous games between these teams at home this season, winning in an 8-2 blowout on December 7th and then needing overtime for a 4-3 win on March 22nd. Especially with the Yotes in second half of a back to back, I expect a win for the Oilers on the road tonight to bounce back from their home loss in OT to Vegas on Saturday. The problem is the prices on this game. The moneyline at -355 is too expensive for me, even regulation at -195 is a bit much considering how closely the Coyotes play teams at home. If this game was in Edmonton I’d be on that for sure. I don’t love the price on it at -175, but I’ll take the Oilers team total over 4 for a unit (don’t love the 4.5 as much). I’d lean the over on the game as well but don’t think it’s worth betting on at 7 and the alternate 6.5 line is juiced all the way up to -175, which I’m not touching.
Game Bets
.5u Sabres ML (-185)
1u Sabres/Canadiens over 6.5 (-155)
.5u Panthers ML (-150)
1u Panthers/Senators over 6.5 (-165)
.5u Devils ML (-130)
.5u Devils/Islanders under 6 (-110)
.5u Wild ML (-120)
.5u Avalanche in regulation (-159)
.5u Avalanche TT over 3.5 (-177)
1u Oilers TT over 4 (-175)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
Record: 629-515-24 (-52.95 units)
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