Following The Masters last week, which was an awesome tournament, this week the PGA Tour heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, SC for the RBC Heritage, which as an elevated event this year has the best field it’s ever seen.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, Pete Dye designed course, 7099 yards (short for a PGA course), 4 Par 3s are all between 192-200 yds, 3 Par 5s (2 are reachable by most), thick tight tree lined course that really rewards driving accuracy and positioning off the tee (has to target specific parts of the fairway to set up approach shots), plotters course that handcuffs bombers a bit, overhanging trees so accuracy is important everywhere on the course, Bermuda fairways, easier than average fairways to hit (~66% vs. ~62% tour average), less than driver course with shortest drives on tour the last three four season with a lot of forced layups (268 yards vs. tour average 283 yards), driving distance does not matter here, bunkers and water hazards are in play if you miss wildly off the tee, very tough greens to hit (~58% vs. ~66% tour average) which have some of the lowest GIR% on tour, smallest greens on tour, well-guarded Bermuda greens, slower than average green speeds with not many slopes or undulations but with some bowl shaped greens with runoffs, bunkers and overhanging trees guarding most greens and water around a few greens as well, it could get very windy and the swirling wind could play a big factor
Tournament Notes
- Course history seems to be more important than current form here
- SG: Approach here is twice as important as ARG and OTT on T10 finishes and about 3x as important on T5 finishes
- SG: ARG has been more important here than SG: OTT. which is
- Before 2019, the last 6 winners prior have been trailing by at least 3 strokes after 54 holes (CT Pan trailed 2 strokes in 2019 going into the final round, Webb Simpson was in a 4 way tie for first in 2020, in 2021 Stewart Cink set a 54 hole tournament record and was in solo 1st). Last year Spieth continued the trend, 3 strokes back of the 54 hole lead
- Only five 54 hole leaders have won in the last 12 years (Webb in 2020 was in a 4 way tie for T1 after 54 holes, with Ancer, Hatton, Palmer, and Cink)
- In 2019, 11 of the T15 in approach came T16 or better. In 2020, 7 of the T11 in approach came T8 or better. In 2021, 8 of the T10 in approach came T13 or better. Of the nine golfers that finished T3 or better last year, all besides Kuchar gained on approach, including the top 3 approach leaders for the week
Key Stats
Approach, SG: ARG, Proximity 175-200 yards, Proximity 150-175 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yards (24.8%), 150-175 yards (22.9%)
Corollary Courses
Pete Dye courses: TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (CareerBuilder Challenge)
Field
142 golfers – best field strength this event has ever been since this is an elevated event (most of the top 100 golfers on the PGA Tour are in the field). It’s also bigger than usual with the field usually only 132 golfers. The only year similar to this was 2020’s field when this was one of the first events coming back from the COVID break with a completely loaded field.
Defending Champion: Jordan Spieth (-13, in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Patrick Cantlay (-13)
One and Done: Collin Morikawa
One and Done Considerations: Spieth, Cantlay, Scheffler, Rahm, Morikawa
Players
Jordan Spieth: 10400: +2465 – Defending champion after beating Cantlay in a playoff last year, 4th at The Masters last week with 4,3,19,4,MC,6,63,MC,13,52,13,19 finishes in his last twelve stroke play events, 1,68,54,11,12,9 finishes here, 23rd in approach, 62nd in SG: OTT, 88th in good drives, 38th in Par 4 scoring, 22nd in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 12th in Par 5 scoring, 101st in proximity 175-200 yards, 3rd in proximity 150-175 yards, 14th in SG: ARG, 85th in putting, 21st in opportunities gained, 16th in birdie+ gained
Tony Finau: 9400: +2500 – 33,39,MC finishes his three times here in 2020, 2016, 2015, 26,19,24,20,14,9,16,7,1,MC,9,28,5,1,1 finishes in his last 15 events, 4th in approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 5th in good drives, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 91st in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 10th in proximity 175-200 yards, 67th in proximity 150-175 yards, 61st in SG: ARG, 15th in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained
Xander Schauffele: 9300: +2700 – Finished 10th at the Masters last week with 10,19,39,33,10,13,3,9,4,3,57,15,1,1,14 finishes in his last 15 events, 64,63,32 finishes in his three times here, 10th in approach, 50th in SG: OTT, 27th in good drives, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 80th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 13th in Par 5 scoring, 18th in proximity 175-200 yards, 12th in proximity 150-175 yards, 47th in SG: ARG, 30th in putting, 16th in opportunities gained, 21st in birdie+ gained
Max Homa: 9100: +2900 – Finished 41st here in 2020 in his only appearance, won twice in his last ten events with 43,6,14,2,39,1,3,23,20,1,5 finishes in his last eleven events,, 5th in approach, 40th in SG: OTT, 71st in good drives, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 79th in Par 5 scoring, 26th in proximity 175-200 yards, 55th in proximity 150-175 yards, 34th in SG: ARG, 9th in putting, 29th in opportunities gained, 5th in birdie+ gained
Rickie Fowler: 7600: +7000 – Playing his best golf in years, hasn’t missed a cut since October with 10,13,31,20,10,11,54,34,2,MC,6 finishes in his last eleven events, missed cut here all three times he was here, last year, 2020, and 2012 but I’m ignoring that here, 8th in approach, 64th in SG: OTT, 50th in good drives, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 55th in Par 5 scoring, 35th in proximity 175-200 yards, 13th in proximity 150-175 yards, 84th in SG: ARG, 38th in putting, 11th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdie+ gained, solid value at +7000
Si Woo Kim: 7600: +7000 – He’s been way more consistent and has played well and won on Pete Dye courses in the past, 42,33,MC,MC,2,14 finishes his six times here, 29,27,39,MC,23,25,22,1,35,52,45,8 finishes in his last twelve events, 20th in approach, 35th in SG: OTT, 34th in good drives, 24th in Par 4 scoring, 86th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards, 91st in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in proximity 175-200 yards, 7th in proximity 150-175 yards, 52nd in SG: ARG, 82nd in putting, 8th in opportunities gained, 27th in birdie+ gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good drives (5%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 3 scoring 175-200 yards (5%)
Par 5 scoring (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities gained (10%)
Birdie+ gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- My biggest gambling win ever (on any sport) came here in 2017 when Wes Bryan won and I came in 7th in the big $33 GPP on DraftKings on Easter Sunday
- Generally lower 6/6 percentage on DK here
- A lot of winners here move up the leaderboard on Sunday, so look at live betting opportunities
Bets
Outrights
.44u Jordan Spieth (+2465)
.4u Xander Schauffele (+2500)
.4u Tony Finau (+2700)
.36u Max Homa (+2900)
.16u Rickie Fowler (+7000)
.16u Si Woo Kim (+7000)
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