I swept last night’s small three game NHL slate going 5-0 to win a huge 5.74 units. Tonight we have the last giant slate of the season with 15 games, most not mattering. Let’s win on it though to keep this fantastic run the last few weeks going!
Capitals vs. Devils (7:00)
The Devils although already having home ice locked up for the first round of the playoffs, still have something to play for, needing a win and a Hurricanes loss to win the Metro Division to lock up home ice in the second round. The Caps have had a pretty disappointing season, missing the playoffs for just the second time since 2008. I broke this game down in depth in my article on StatSalt and as I said in that, I expect the Devils to win on the road here and will take them for half a unit. I’d lean over but not enough to bet it.
Sabres vs. Senators (7:00)
My Sabres were eliminated from playoff contention on Tuesday night with a 6-2 loss in New Jersey. This was such a fun season though and there’s a lot of future for this team. The Senators have had a disappointing season as well but just like the Sabres, they have a young team that will see success in the future. The Sens lead the season series between these teams 2-1, losing 4-1 in Buffalo on October 13th, winning 4-1 at home on November 16th and then 3-1 at home on January 1st. I don’t see either of these teams resting most of their rosters despite there not being any motivation for either of these Atlantic Division teams. I will take my Sabres for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Canadiens vs. Bruins (7:00)
This is a huge mismatch in the Atlantic Division but it has zero meaning. The Bruins have had the best season in NHL history, with the most wins, the most points and clinched the President’s Trophy weeks ago. I’d expect load management tonight going into the playoffs for a bulk of their roster. The Habs are one of the worst teams in the league. I’d expect the Bruins to close out their season on the road, but with no motivation for them, they’re not worth betting at the expensive prices on this game that would be fine if there was any meaning to this matchup. I’ll just stay off it entirely.
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins (7:00)
Last night the Penguins had their 16 year playoff streak end with the Islanders beating the Habs. Disappointing season for Pittsburgh as this era with Sid, Geno, and Letang is likely nearing its end in the next few years. The Blue Jackets are one of the worst teams in the NHL, right in the Bedard sweepstakes and have been awful all season. Even though it doesn’t mean anything I like the Pens to win here. I think the -190 is too expensive due to the motivation factor and I don’t want to limit myself to regulation only, so I’ll just stick with the Penguins team total over 3.5 here for half a unit. I’d lean the over on the game but not enough to bet it.
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
This game doesn’t matter whatsoever with the Rangers having third place in the Metro locked up, awaiting if they’ll play the Devils or the Hurricanes in the first round next week while the Leafs already know they’ll have home ice in the first round against the Lightning. I expect both of these teams to rest half their lineups so this game will have a shell of both teams playing. I’ll stay off this matchup entirely.
Panthers vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
This is an interesting matchup and both teams sort of have something to play for, with their position and matchup in the first round of the playoffs yet to be determined, and this game could potentially be a preview of a first round series in the East. The Hurricanes are a point ahead of the Devils for first place in the Metro Division and could lock up the division title with a win tonight. The Panthers are a point back from the Islanders for the first Wild Card spot in the East. A win tonight would guarantee them to play either the Devils or Hurricanes but a regulation loss would mean they’re facing the Bruins. Both previous games between these teams were shutout wins for the home team, a 3-0 Panthers win on November 9th and a 4-0 Canes win on December 30th. I’d slightly lean Florida and the over in this matchup but not enough to bet on either, so I’ll just lay off this game.
Lightning vs. Red Wings (7:00)
This game is completely meaningless. The Red Wings are out of the playoffs but way too good to be in the Bedard sweepstakes, so this game means nothing to them. The Lightning are preparing to face the Leafs in the first round next week and will likely rest half their roster. I actually see a little value because of that in Detroit tonight, who already lead the season series 2-1, but I’m not betting this game with how poorly the Red Wings have played as of late. I’ll lay off it entirely.
Avalanche vs. Jets (8:00)
Both of these teams are in the playoffs but only the Avs are actually playing for something. The Jets are locked into the second Wild Card spot in the West and can’t move from that position, either playing the Golden Knights or the Oilers in the first round depending on the results of their games tonight, so Winnipeg has nothing to play for and they already have David Rittich confirmed in goal. The Avs on the other hand do have something to play for. As one of the four teams playing tomorrow night (and the only playoff teams), they have a game in hand over the Stars as they’re a point back from the Dallas for the Central Division title (but already have home ice in the first round locked up). In general Colorado’s the much better and more well rounded team in this matchup, but with the difference in motivation with the expectation of a lot of players resting for Winnipeg, I expect an Avalanche win tonight. Evidently the books seem to think so too with the Avs ML all the way up to -275. I’ll take Colorado in regulation for 1.5 units and their team total for a unit.
Stars vs. Blues (8:00)
These Central Division teams just played last night for the first half of a home and home to close out the regular season. The books gave us an absolute gift on that game with the price so cheap at -165, the puck line at +148 and the team total of 3 reasonably priced to give me an easy triple winner as the Stars went on to win 5-2 in St. Louis. They’re a point ahead of the Avs (who have a game in hand) for first place in the Division with a 46-21-14 record and are on a five-game win streak, having played really well recently with a 16-5-2 record in their last 23 games. Dallas has played well on both ends of the ice. The Blues are having a disappointing year with a 37-37-7 on the season and were big sellers before the deadline. They’ve played alright recently, with an 8-4-2 record in last 14 games. The offense for St. Louis has been decent but their defense has been horrendous. The Stars easily won the first game between these teams this season as well, winning 4-1 in St. Louis on November 28th. I expect Dallas to complete the season sweep tonight but at home the prices on this game are way more expensive than they were last night. The -265 moneyline is too expensive but I’ll go with the Stars in regulation for a unit and their team total over 3.5 for 1.5 units.
Predators vs. Wild (8:00)
This Central Division game is completely meaningless. The Predators got eliminated from playoff contention with the Jets win over the Wild on Tuesday night. The Wild already have third place in the Central locked up and can’t catch the Avs, so they’re resting most of their players, with nine of their regulars out of the lineup tonight. They do not give a fuck about this game. With that, I like the Preds to win at home in Smashville and will take them for half a unit.
Blackhawks vs. Flyers (8:30)
Going into today this was a completely boring cross-conference matchup between two terrible teams that are both out of the playoffs, with the Blackhawks right in the Bedard sweepstakes as one of the worst teams in the NHL and the Flyers just slightly too good to be in the running for Bedard. Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson put a huge wrench in that this morning, announcing that they will not be re-signing captain Jonathan Toews in the offseason so tonight will be the end of an era as he Toews plays his final game as a Chicago Blackhawk. With Kane already gone and Toews gone after tonight, that marks the end of the franchise that saw Chicago winning three Stanley Cups in the last decade. Before the Toews announcement, which even as someone that isn’t a Blackhawks fan made me a bit sad to see, I liked the Flyers to win on the road tonight, but with it that makes me rethink the game. I’m still not betting Chicago since they’re still an awful team but to cap off the history of his time on this team, I like Toews to record a point at home in Chicago and will take him over half a point for half a unit.
Oilers vs. Sharks (9:00)
Huge mismatch here and this game actually matters for the Oilers. Edmonton doesn’t control their own destiny but with a win tonight and a Golden Knights loss to the Kraken, the Oilers will have the first overall seed in the Western Conference. They’re on fire recently, coming off a 2-1 overtime win in Colorado on Tuesday they extended their win streak to eight games and their point streak to 14 games with an 13-0-1 record in that span. Led by the best hockey player in the world in Connor McDavid, who’s running away with every offensive award the league has, Edmonton’s offense is easily the best in the NHL, but their defense and goaltending has been inconsistent at best. That has improved a ton as of late though. The Sharks on the other hand are right in the Bedard sweepstakes as one of the worst teams in the NHL this season, playing horrendous hockey on both ends of the ice and to make matters worse for them, they’re in the second half of a back to back after a 3-1 loss in Calgary last night. The Oilers have won all three previous games between these teams this season, winning 7-1 in San Jose on January 13th, 5-4 in overtime at home on March 20th, and 6-1 on the road just a few days ago on April 8th. I expect a blowout win here for the Oilers but the prices on this game are so fucking expensive with the moneyline unbettable at -530, regulation line insane at -305 and even the puck line too expensive at -195. I’ll take the Oilers team total over 4.5 here for a unit.
Ducks vs. Kings (10:00)
The Kings have had a good season with their spot in the playoffs clinched, in third place in the Pacific Division with a 46-25-10 record. They can lock up that position with a win tonight, currently holding a two-point lead over the Kraken, who are in the first Wild Card spot in the West. The Ducks are one of the worst teams in the league, right in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes with a 23-46-12 record, coming into tonight’s game on an almost impressive twelve-game losing streak. I broke this game down in depth in my article on StatSalt and like I said in that article I expect the Kings to win here and will take them in regulation for half a unit. I’d slightly lean under but not enough to even consider betting it.
Coyotes vs. Canucks (10:00)
This game doesn’t matter in the slightest. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention and just a bit outside of but outside of the Bedard sweepstakes. That being said, I like the Canucks to win tonight on the road in Arizona and will take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over on this game but not enough to bet it.
Kraken vs. Golden Knights (10:30)
To close out tonight’s slate we have a solid matchup in the Pacific Division with these two teams both playing for seeding in the playoffs in the second half of a home and home after the Knights beat the Kraken 4-1 at home on Tuesday night. The Golden Knights lead the Western Conference and can lock up the first seed in the West tonight regardless of the results of the Oilers game if they pick up at least a point tonight, coming into tonight’s game with a two point lead over Edmonton. The Kraken are in the first Wild Card spot in the West but can move up to the third seed in the Pacific with a win and a Kings loss. I’d slightly lean the Knights win again here but realistically this is a coin flip game to me and I’ll stay off betting it entirely.
Game Bets
.5u Devils ML (-180)
.5u Sabres ML (-145)
.5u Penguins TT over 3.5 (-129)
1.5u Avalanche in regulation (-157)
1u Avalanche TT over 3.5 (-143)
1u Stars in regulation (-152)
1.5u Stars TT over 3.5 (-148)
.5u Predators ML (-155)
.5u Jonathan Toews over .5 point (-124)
1u Oilers TT over 4.5 (-122)
.5u Kings in regulation (-139)
.5u Canucks ML (-150)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
.5u Minnesota Wild – Stanley Cup Champions (+2000)
1u Minnesota Wild – Western Conference Champions (+800)
Record: 719-565-29 (-32.1 units)
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