Yesterday with a big Oilers comeback, I finished my daily NHL plays going 4-2 to lose 0.3 units, but cashed my big 2.5 unit play on the Wild/Stars series to go at least six games, so solid winning day. Tonight we have four more pivotal Game 4s.
Game 4: Rangers vs. Devils (7:00)
After two horrendous games at home, the Devils avoided the possibility of a sweep in this series with a 2-1 overtime win in MSG on Saturday night. They played really well after getting dominated 5-1 in both Game 1 and Game 2. Lindy made a goaltending change with Akira Schmid getting the start over Vitek Vanacek and Schmid was fantastic in goal, with 35 saves on 36 shots and a .972 save percentage. The Rangers still had a good chance at winning that game, outshooting Jersey 36-28 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 3.35-2.82. I hedged on my series bet of this series to go at least six games and lost on it, but I’m going right back to it tonight. That bet cashed with a Devils win tonight, but I don’t see it happening. The Rangers are the way better team in this series as we’ve seen and I think they likely get it done in five or at most six games, and I think they bounce back from Saturday’s loss with a win at home tonight. I’ll go right back to the Rags here with 1.5 units on the moneyline along with half a unit on the puck line.
Game 4: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs (7:30)
This series has been heated and so much fun to watch so far and we even saw two 60+ goal scorers have dropped the gloves for the first time in NHL history on Saturday. The Leafs took a 2-1 lead on the road in Tampa on Saturday night with a 4-3 overtime win with Ryan O’Reilly scoring the game tying goal with just a minute left in the game and then Morgan Reilly scoring in overtime. This series has seen some horrendous officiating and Tampa was screwed in that game, as they played better hockey, outshooting the Leafs 39-27 and outplayed Toronto by an expected goal rate of 4.17-2.96. That was just the third time since 2020 that Andrei Vasilevskiy has lost consecutive playoff games. I’d lean the Lightning tie this series tonight at home and cash my over 5.5 games prop on the series, so I’ll just let that ride tonight. I’m jumping right back on the alternate over 6 here for 2 units.
Game 4: Jets vs. Golden Knights (9:30)
On Saturday night in Winnipeg, the Golden Knights took their first lead of this series, going up 2-1 with their second win in a row, beating the Jets 5-4 in overtime on the road. After blowing a 4-1 lead heading into the third period, and giving up the game-tying goal with just 22 seconds left in regulation, Vegas won 3:40 into the second overtime period on a goal from Michael Amadio. The Knights outshot Winnipeg 48-34 and outplayed the Jets by an expected goal rate of 4.32-3.04. The Golden Knights got this series back on track in Game 2, bouncing back from their Game 1 loss and then took the series lead on Saturday night in Game 3 in Winnipeg with a win on the road. That should not have been as close as the score indicated as they were the much better team and blew a 4-1 lead in the third period, but still managed to get the win. To make matters much worse for the Jets, Josh Morrissey, their best defenseman, is now out the rest of the series with a knee injury. Vegas is the better team in this matchup and I give them a huge edge offensively. I expect that to shine through the rest of this series, after they had their dud of a game in Game 1 and continue to win. I’ll take Vegas to win tonight to take a 3-1 series lead on the road for half a unit. I’d once again lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Game 4: Kraken vs. Avalanche (10:00)
The defending Cup champs took their first lead of this series on Saturday night with a dominant 6-4 win in Seattle to spoil the first ever playoff game at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle. After blowing a 3-1 lead, the Avs then scored the next three to go on to get their 6-4 win on the road to take a 2-1 series lead. They outshot the Kraken 34-29 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 4.32-2.78. I expect the Avs to win this series in five or six games even if the games end up being closer than a lot of people thought going into this series. They should win tonight on the road to take a commanding 3-1 series lead going back to Colorado for Game 5. I’ll take the Avs ML for 1.5 units and the puck line for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
1.5u Rangers ML (-155)
.5u Rangers -1.5 (+160)
2u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 6 (-134)
.5u Golden Knights ML (-110)
1.5u Avalanche ML (-155)
.5u Avalanche -1.5 (+160)
Series Bets
1u Bruins to win series in six games or less (-177)
1.5u Bruins to win series in five games or less (-125)
1.5u Hurricanes/Islanders over 5.5 games (-162)
1.5u Stars to win series (-150)
.5u Stars/Wild over 6.5 games (+220)
1.5u Oilers to win series in six games or less (-112)
2u Devils/Rangers over 5.5 games (-167)
1u Devils to win series (-125)
2u Maple Leafs to win series (-177)
1u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 5.5 games (-162)
1.5u Golden Knights to win series (-175)
2u Oilers to win series (-130)
2u Avalanche to win series (-148)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
.5u Minnesota Wild – Stanley Cup Champions (+2000)
1u Minnesota Wild – Western Conference Champions (+800)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
Record: 757-591-31 (-26.08 units)
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