Once again last night I had a losing day on my daily NHL plays, going 1-2-1 to lose 2.14 units, but won back 1.5 units on my bet for the Canes/Isles series to go over 5.5 games (3-0 in series bets, but I’ve hedged against two of those), mitigating my loss to just 0.64 units. Tonight we have just two big Game 5s, with an elimination scenario once again, let’s crush it!
Game 5: Bruins vs. Panthers (7:00)
We have another elimination scenario in play tonight as the Bruins, the greatest team in NHL regular season history, can end the Panthers season with a win tonight on home ice. After the first two games of this series in Boston where Florida played well and the series was tied. Boston took over in Florida though and dominated with a 4-2 win in Game 3 and then an even more dominant 6-2 win in Game 4. To make the B’s even better, Bergeron is back in the lineup tonight. I’m fucking hammering this game. Not only am I letting my two series bets of the Bruins to win in 5 to cash tonight along with them to win in 6 or less, I’m doubling down with a unit on the Bruins in regulation. Elimination games always get chaos at the end when the team at the brink of elimination is down in the third period, which I expect the Panthers to be in Boston. I like overs in that series anyway and have bet it every game. I’m going with 2 units on the over 6, 1.5 units on the alternate over 7, a unit on the alternate over 7.5 and half a unit on the alternate over 8. I’m peppering props on here with half a unit each on Pasta, Bergeron, and Marchand to score. And I got a goalie prop here, with a unit on Ullmark over 30.5 saves. LETS. FUCKING. GO.
Game 5: Avalanche vs. Kraken (9:30)
I expected this series to be way closer than the opening line of -315 was and I’ve been right on that, with the series tied at 2-2 going back to Colorado for Game 5 tonight. After getting dominated in Game 3 at home on Saturday night in the first ever playoff game in Seattle, the Kraken answered back at home in Game 4 with a 3-2 overtime victory. They were the much better team in that game, outshooting Colorado 43-22 and dominating the Cup champs by an expected goal rate of 5.6-2.57. The Avs came back from a 2-0 deficit to force overtime but ultimately lost on Jordan Eberle’s power play goal in OT. Like I said after Game 1 though when I jumped on the much better price for the Avs to win this series, they’re the better team here. I expect the experience and depth of Colorado to shine through for them to win this series and they should bounce back well from their lousy loss on Monday night with a win on home ice tonight to put the Kraken a game away from elimination. The Avalanche will be without Cale Maker though tonight, the best defenseman in the NHL, who’s suspended for his hit in Game 4 on Jared McCann. Even without one of their best players, I still like them to win and I’ll take the Avs for a unit tonight. I also like the under here. Three of the four previous games in this series have hit the under and I expect that trend to continue tonight in Game 5, which I’ll take for half a unit. All three regular season games between these teams stayed under and both teams trended under in the regular season. The under went 43-34-5 in Avs games and 40-38-4 in Kraken games. Colorado has allowed just the ninth-fewest goals in the NHL, having given up the tenth-fewest expected goals and the 13th-fewest high-danger shots in the league. The Kraken, despite allowing the 14th-fewest goals in the league, have given up just the eighth-fewest expected goals and the tenth-fewest high-danger shots in the NHL.
Game Bets
1u Bruins in regulation (-141)
2u Bruins/Panthers over 6 (-129)
1.5u Bruins/Panthers over 7 (+170)
1u Bruins/Panthers over 7.5 (+230)
.5u Bruins/Panthers over 8 (+330)
.5u David Pastrnak over .5 goals (-136)
.5u Patrice Bergeron over .5 goals (+180)
.5u Brad Marchand over .5 goals (+180)
1u Linus Ullmark over 30.5 saves (-105)
1u Avalanche ML (-182)
.5u Avalanche/Kraken under 6 (-121)
Series Bets
1u Bruins to win series in six games or less (-177)
1.5u Bruins to win series in five games or less (-125)
1.5u Stars to win series (-150)
.5u Stars/Wild over 6.5 games (+220)
1.5u Oilers to win series in six games or less (-112)
1u Devils to win series (-125)
2u Maple Leafs to win series (-177)
1u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 5.5 games (-162)
1.5u Golden Knights to win series (-175)
2u Oilers to win series (-130)
2u Avalanche to win series (-148)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
.5u Minnesota Wild – Stanley Cup Champions (+2000)
1u Minnesota Wild – Western Conference Champions (+800)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
Record: 762-597-33 (-27.86 units)
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A Town's Zone 