I made a profit on the NHL last night, going 5-3 on my daily bets, but 1-2 on my series bets and losing both of my Wild futures, finishing the night winning 1.88 units. Not bad. Tonight we have three more huge Game 6s!
Game 6: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
The Leafs completely fucked me on Thursday night, a goal short of hitting the over when I laddered it up heavily. That was the first game of the series for the over not to hit, as the Lightning won 4-2 on the road in Toronto. The Bolts held off elimination and Toronto has to be sweating this series out now. After Game 4 with a 3-1 lead in the series, it was looking good for Toronto but now they’re a game away from Game 7, in which case we could see yet another choke and collapse by this team. I’d slightly lean the Maple Leafs get it done on the road tonight to finally end their drought and get out of the first round for the first time since 2004, but not nearly enough to bet on it in what’s essentially a coin flip. I’ll let my series bet for them to win ride tonight which hopefully cashes on the road tonight but if this gets to Game 7, I’ll absolutely hedge out of it. I love the over again here and I’ll go right back to my laddered up plays. I’ll take the over 6 for 2.5 units, over 7 for 1.5 units, over 7.5 for a unit, and over 8 for half a unit.
Game 6: Devils vs. Rangers (8:00)
The first two games of this series didn’t live up to the hype in Jersey, as the Rangers dominated both of those games on the road with 5-1 wins. I thought the series was pretty much over at that point heading back to MSG but after getting a 2-1 overtime win in a grind of a Game 3 in New York and a huge 3-1 win in Game 4 on the road, to tie the series and then winning in a dominant 4-0 shutout at home in Game 5, the Devils have now flipped the script and put the Rangers on the brink of elimination at home tonight in Game 6. In Game 5, the Devils outshot the Rangers 43-22 and dominated New York by an expected goal rate of 5.38-2.12. The Devils outshot the Rangers 20-2 in the third period and the goaltending change the Lindy made to Arika Schmid has been huge. He was fantastic in all three games he played, making 35 saves on 36 shots with a .972 save percentage in Game 3 and allowing just a goal in Game 4 as the Devils evened the series and then got his first playoff shutout in Game 5. I’d lean the Devils end the series tonight at home with so much momentum on their side but not enough to bet it, and will just let my series bet on them ride. This game is such a complete coin flip that could easily go in either direction. I do like the under though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Game 6: Kings vs. Oilers (10:00)
After four days off we finally have Game 6 for this series in LA. After getting their comeback win to tie up the series in Game 4 on Sunday night in overtime, the Oilers came out with a big 6-3 win at home on Tuesday night to take their first lead of the series and put the Kings on the brink of elimination tonight. I expected this to be an easier series for the Oilers but it obviously has been so competitive and entertaining. I have my series bet on Edmonton to win it in six games, which is nice value at -112 when the moneyline tonight is -170. Since I essentially already have tonight’s moneyline with that bet, there’s no need for me to re-bet it. I do like the over though, especially with elimination at play for the Kings. I’ll take the over for two units. I thought about laddering it up, but I just don’t think its worth it at the prices.
Game Bets
2.5u Lightning/Maple Leafs over 6 (-136)
1.5u Lightning/Maple Leafs over 7 (+165)
1u Lightning/Maple Leafs over 7.5 (+225)
.5u Lightning/Maple Leafs over 8 (+290)
.5u Rangers/Devils under 5.5 (-125)
2u Oilers/Kings over 6.5 (-130)
Series Bets
1.5u Oilers to win series in six games or less (-112)
1u Devils to win series (-125)
2u Maple Leafs to win series (-177)
2u Oilers to win series (-130)
2u Avalanche to win series (-148)
Futures
1u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
1.5u Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Champions (+1100)
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New York Rangers – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
Record: 776-616-34 (-33.02 units)
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A Town's Zone 