Before the PGA Championship next week at Oak Hill, this week the PGA Tour is at TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7468 yards, 6 of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, 3 of the Par 3s are over 216 yards, all four Par 5s are driveable as well as the 330 yard Par 4 14th, Zoysia grass (most prevalent in Asia and Australia) fairways, trees and bunkers in play off the tee and water is in play on 13 holes with a creek running through a majority of the course, higher than tour average driving accuracy (~64% vs. ~62%) and much longer driving distance than tour average (288 yds vs. 283 yards), higher than tour average GIR % (~71% vs. ~66%), above average sized bentgrass greens with bunkers in play, fourth easiest scrambling course on tour so it’s easy to make up for missing greens, easy birdiefest course that’s easy to score on with the most birdies of any course on tour, one of the easiest courses on tour
Tournament Notes
- 2021 was the first season this event was held here at TPC Craig Ranch, used to be held at Trinity Forest Golf Club and TPC Four Seasons prior to that
- KH Lee has been the only winner at this course, defending his 2021 victory last year
- This course previously hosted the Nationwide Tour Championship (now Korn Ferry Tour) in 2012 (James Hahn and Adam Hadwin came 2nd and 3rd that week) and 2008 (Leishman came T7)
- 6 of the top 7 finishers last year gained strokes on the Par 3s, which are the hardest holes on the course
- Some of the holes on this course are so easy that if you don’t make birdie, you’re actually losing strokes on the field
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Birdie+ Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (34.7%)
Field
152 golfers – not great, but not as bad of field strength as expected with the PGA Championship next week
Defending Champion: KH Lee (-26)
Runner Up Last Year: Jordan Spieth (-25)
One and Done: Jason Day
One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Tom Kim, Jason Day, Tyrrell Hatton
Players
Tyrrell Hatton: 10100: +1300 – First time playing here, 3,19,34,MC,2,4,40,6,13 finishes in his last nine events, 3rd in Approach, 102nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 11th in Par 5 scoring, 98th in Proximity 200+ yards, 6th in SG: OTT, 71st in SG: ARG, 10th in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained
Tom Kim: 9600: +1600 – T17 here last year, 23,MC,16,51,34,45,50,6,MC,5,11,25,1 finishes in his last 13 events, 4th in Approach, 2nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 32nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 43rd in Par 5 scoring, 9th in Proximity 200+ yards, 22nd in SG: OTT, 18th in SG: ARG, 113th in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained, 70th in Birdie+ Gained
Jason Day: 9400: +1750 – Could see him finally getting his win in this field, T51 and MC finishes here, MC,39,19,10,9,5,7,18,MC,16,21,11,8 finishes in his last 13 events, 16th in Approach, 6th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 90th in Par 5 scoring, 74th in Proximity 200+ yards, 7th in SG: OTT, 16th in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 120th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained
Si Woo Kim: 9100: +4000 – Has been way more consistent this season, MC and T55 finishes here, 43,MC,29,39,27,39,MC,23,25,22,1 finishes in his last eleven events, 22nd in Approach, 14th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 14th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 112th in Par 5 scoring, 58th in Proximity 200+ yards, 9th in SG: OTT, 66th in SG: ARG, 71st in Putting, 17th in Opportunities Gained, 25th in Birdie+ Gained
Tom Hoge: 8500: +4500 – Really like the value on him on the betting board, T17 and MC finishes here, hasn’t played great lately with MC,MC,3,MC,14,MC,48,32,41,3 finishes in his last ten events yet still pops on the stat model, 1st in Approach, 32nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 45th in Par 4 scoring, 32nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 20th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 84th in SG: OTT, 143rd in SG: ARG, 22nd in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained
Stephan Jaeger: 8200: +5000 – T38 finish here last year, 27,18,MC,27,44,14,40 finishes in his last seven events, 12th in Approach, 2nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 13th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 141st in Par 5 scoring, 16th in Proximity 200+ yards, 21st in SG: OTT, 13th in SG: ARG, 137th in Putting, 65th in Opportunities Gained, 75th in Birdie+ Gained
Joseph Bramlett: 7900: +6000 – T51 and T7 finishes here, 40,10,MC,36,MC,MC,55,7,13 finishes in his last nine events, 8th in Approach, 63rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 21st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 21st in Par 5 scoring, 42nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 42nd in SG: OTT, 47th in SG: ARG, 134th in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained, 39th in Birdie+ Gained
Nate Lashley: 7200: +10000 – T17 and MC finishes here, 27,39,31,MC,MC,60,3,20 finishes in his last eight events, 23rd in Approach, 14th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 78th in Par 4 scoring, 29th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 91st in SG: OTT, 75th in SG: ARG, 61st in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 34th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards (10%)
Par 4 scoring (5%)
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
SG: OTT (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I could see Scheffler easily winning this week but not a shot in hell I’m betting him at +275
- I have a bit bigger of a card this week, no real reason why but five of my eight guys are longer than 40:1
Bets
Outrights
.8u Tyrrell Hatton (+1300)
.64u Tom Kim (+1600)
.6u Jason Day (+1750)
.23u Si Woo Kim (+4000)
.22u Tom Hoge (+4500)
.2u Stephan Jaeger (+5000)
.18u Joseph Bramlett (+6000)
.1u Nate Lashley (+10000)
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