Another brutal night on the NHL yesterday to keep this second round slump going for me, getting swept, going 0-5 to lose 4.96 units. I did win 2 of those units back though, cashing my prop for Vegas/Edmonton to go over 5.5 games. Tonight we have two big Game 5s with the Canes looking to be the first team to advance to the Conference Finals.
Game 5: Hurricanes vs. Devils (7:00)
The Devils turned this series around in Game 3 after getting dominated in Games 1 and 2 on the road, but that success from their 8-4 win in Game 3 at home was short lived, as they got crushed 6-1 on Tuesday in Game 4 and they’re now on the brink of elimination back in Raleigh for Game 5. The Hurricanes dominated Game 1 at home on Wednesday night, getting a 5-1 win in a game that New Jersey never stood a chance in. Carolina outshot the Devils 23-18 and outplayed Jersey by an expected goal rate of 3.97-2.11. Game 2 wasn’t any better for the Devils on Friday night, as they lost 6-1 to go down 2-0 in the series. They did play significantly better than in Game 1, but still got outshot 35-29 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 4.02-2.16. The Devils made it a series with a dominant 8-4 win on Sunday afternoon as the series shifted to New Jersey with a four point game for Jack Hughes (2 goals, 2 assists). They outshot the Canes 34-30 and dominated by an expected goal rate of 4.16-2.66. In Game 4, Carolina bounced right back on the road, winning 6-1 with a huge five goal second period to take a 3-1 series lead and put themselves a game away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. They outshot the Devils 29-22 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 2.64-1.52. I think this ends up being a closer game than the first four boring blowouts of this series have been, but I expect the Canes to finish off the job and end this series tonight. I have a big three unit bet on the Devils to win this series which to me is already a loss. I’m hedging out of that with two units on the Hurricanes tonight with another half a unit on the puck line. The over has hit in every game of this series and the books are still giving it to us at 5.5, so I’m hitting that for 2 units as well.
Game 5: Stars vs. Kraken (9:30)
This series has been a ton of fun. We started the series with a wild Game 1, as the Kraken got up 4-2 early, with Jake Oettinger having his worst period of the playoffs, giving up four goals. After that period, Oettinger didn’t let another goal in, and with an incredible four-goal performance from Joe Pavelski, the Stars tied it up to force overtime. Yanni Gourde ruined the comeback though 12:17 into OT for the 5-4 Seattle win on the road to take a 1-0 series lead. The Kraken outshot Dallas 44-35 but the Stars outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.26-2.78. The Stars bounced right back though in Game 2, coming up with a big win for me as they took down Seattle 4-2. They were the far better team, outshooting the Kraken 37-27 and absolutely dominating them by an expected goal rate of 5.76-1.87. In Game 3 of the series, as it shifted to Seattle, after a scoreless first period, the Kraken took over, scoring five times to ride out the game to a dominant 7-2 win. They were outshot 26-25 but outplayed Dallas by an expected goal rate of 2.42-1.79, with seven different goal scorers for their seven goals. The Stars answered back on the road in Game 4 to tie up the series with a big 6-3 win in Seattle. With a four goal third period, they rode a 5-1 lead to the victory, outshooting the Kraken 25-19 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 4.98-2.56. I have the Stars to win the series both straight up and in six games. I’m letting those both ride tonight, expecting Dallas to get a win on home ice. I don’t like the ML odds enough to double down on all that risk though at -200. If I wasn’t already on the series bets, I’d be all over the Stars in regulation. I like the over in this game, with all four games of the series hitting it. I’m gonna ladder up the overs here with 2 units on the 5.5, a unit on the 7, and half a unit on the 7.5.
Game Bets
2u Hurricanes ML (-132)
.5u Hurricanes -1.5 (+190)
2u Hurricanes/Devils over 5.5 (-130)
2u Stars/Kraken over 5.5 (-120)
1u Stars/Kraken over 7 (+240)
.5u Stars/Kraken over 7.5 (+320)
Series Bets
2u Stars to win series in six games or less (+105)
3u Devils to win series (-124)
2u Stars to win series (-120)
.5u Oilers/Golden Knights over 6.5 games (+200)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
1u New Jersey Devils – Stanley Cup Champions (+1600)
2u Edmonton Oilers – Stanley Cup Champions (+800)
2u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+815)
1u Seattle Kraken – Stanley Cup Champions (+1360)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
Record: 786-649-35 (-68.54 units)
…you should probably be fading me
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A Town's Zone 