Fun Game 6 last night between the Knights and Oilers, with Vegas advancing to the Western Conference Finals. I went 2-0 on my daily bets to win 2 units, offsetting my 2 unit loss on my Oilers future, but that makes my +1200 Golden Knights future look even sweeter. I finished the night losing just half a unit on my series bet for that series to go seven games (+200) after I had already cashed my bigger series future on them to go over 5.5 games, which won easily after Game 4. Tonight we have Game 7 between the Stars and the Kraken to advance to the Western Conference Finals and take on the Golden Knights.
Game 7: Stars vs. Kraken (8:00)
This second-round series has been a lot of fun in this Western Conference matchup between the Seattle Kraken and the Dallas Stars and fittingly so, we’ve reach Game 7 for these teams to advance to the Western Conference Finals. The Stars finished second in the Central Division and then knocked off the Minnesota Wild in the first round in six games. The Kraken finished in the first Wild Card spot in the West and knocked off the defending Stanley Cup Champions, upsetting the Avalanche in Game 7. We started the series with a wild Game 1, as the Kraken got up 4-2 early, with Jake Oettinger having his worst period of the playoffs, giving up four goals. After that period, Oettinger didn’t let another goal in, and with an incredible four-goal performance from Joe Pavelski, the Stars tied it up to force overtime. Yanni Gourde ruined the comeback though 12:17 into OT for the 5-4 Seattle win on the road to take a 1-0 series lead. The Kraken outshot Dallas 44-35 but the Stars outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.26-2.78. The Stars bounced right back though in Game 2, coming up with a big win for me as they took down Seattle 4-2. They were the far better team, outshooting the Kraken 37-27 and absolutely dominating them by an expected goal rate of 5.76-1.87. In Game 3 of the series, as it shifted to Seattle, after a scoreless first period, the Kraken took over, scoring five times to ride out the game to a dominant 7-2 win. They were outshot 26-25 but outplayed Dallas by an expected goal rate of 2.42-1.79, with seven different goal scorers for their seven goals. The Stars answered back on the road in Game 4 to tie up the series with a big 6-3 win in Seattle. With a four goal third period, they rode a 5-1 lead to the victory, outshooting the Kraken 25-19 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 4.98-2.56. Dallas put the Kraken a game away from elimination with another dominant win at home in Game 5 on Thursday night, winning 5-2. Despite getting outshot 31-21, the Stars outplayed Seattle by an expected goal rate of 3.03-1.21. The Kraken, with their backs against the wall avoided elimination on Saturday night with a big 6-3 win at home. They got out to a 4-1 lead and rode that lead to the win, outshooting the Stars 29-23 and getting the win despite getting slightly outplayed by an expected goal rate of 3.56-3.32. The Stars went 2-1 in the regular season games between these teams, with the Stars winning 4-3 in overtime in Seattle on March 11th, winning 5-2 in Seattle on March 13th, and the Kraken answering back with a 5-4 overtime win in Dallas on March 21st. Dallas has been the better team in this series and just as I expected going into this series, the Stars should win tonight at home to advance to the Western Conference Finals.They should bounce back from their Game 6 loss in Seattle, with a multi-goal win tonight. Although in the regular season, the Kraken scored more than Dallas did, the Stars did a much better job of generating offense, generating the twelfth-most expected goals and the eighth-most high-danger shots in the league while Seattle generated just the tenth-fewest expected goals and the ninth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. In the first round, the Kraken scored just the fifth-fewest goals of teams that made the playoffs while the Stars scored the sixth-most. Defensively in the regular season, the Stars were elite, having allowed just the third-fewest goals in the NHL, and they gave up just the second-fewest expected goals and the second-fewest high-danger shots. Defensively, Seattle’s been inconsistent and they’ve struggled at times in the regular season, having allowed the 14th-fewest goals in the NHL. They allowed the seventh-fewest goals of the first round. I have my series bet on the Stars at an awesome price at -120 which I locked in after their loss in Game 1 at home. Considering that the moneyline on the Stars tonight is all the way up to -220, I got incredible value on them, getting 100 points in juice. Huge, so I’m letting that ride tonight, expecting them to win at home. The over has hit in all six previous games in this series and I expect that trend to continue tonight in Game 7 as both teams have been able to score at ease all series. Especially with this being an elimination game for both teams, I expect the net to be empty late in the game. That extra chaos may help us get a few empty net goals to hit the over, but it should come earlier with how high-scoring this entire series has been. Somehow the books kept giving us a gift of the totals in this series set low every game, and tonight for Game 7 is nothing different with it set to 5.5. Even though Game 7s usually trend under, I love the over tonight and I’m going right back to laddering them up, just as I did in Game 6, which hitting all three ways I took it. I’ll do the same thing I did in Game 6 with 3 units on the 5.5, a unit on the 7, and half a unit on the 7.5.
Game Bets
3u Stars/Kraken over 5.5 (-127)
1u Stars/Kraken over 7 (+230)
.5u Stars/Kraken over 7.5 (+300)
Series Bets
2u Stars to win series (-120)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
1.5u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+1300)
2u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+815)
1u Seattle Kraken – Stanley Cup Champions (+1360)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
Record: 797-659-35 (-68.78 units)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 