Lost again as the Knights came up just a goal short once again in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals of hitting their team total. Tonight we have a crucial Game 6 as the Golden Knights try to advance to the Cup Finals and the Stars look to force Game 7.
Game 6: Stars vs. Golden Knights (8:00)
I expected a fantastic Western Conference Finals series between the top seed in the West, the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Dallas Stars. It didn’t look like it would be that close though early as Vegas was up 3-0 in the series, but the Stars having won the last two games have extended it to Game 6. They will try to force Game 7 as the Golden Knights come into Game 6 tonight up 3-2 in the series with the chance to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals for the second time in their short franchise history and face the Florida Panthers. In Game 1, the Golden Knights opened the series with a 4-3 overtime win after a high-scoring four-goal third period. The Stars forced overtime on Jamie Benn’s goal with 1:59 remaining in regulation but Brett Howden was the overtime hero just 1:35 into OT to get the Knights the win at home in the Fortress to take a 1-0 series lead. Vegas outshot the Stars 37-36 and outplayed Dallas by an expected goal rate of 2.9-2.22. Game 2 was just as fun. It started quicker, with the teams trading goals in the first period. This time it was Vegas that tied up the game late as Jonathan Marchessault forced overtime with his goal with just 2:22 left in regulation and then Chandler Stephenson gave Vegas the 2-0 series lead at home heading on the road to Dallas tonight for Game 3. The Stars outshot Vegas 28-24 and outplayed the Knights by an expected goal rate of 3.24-2.88 but couldn’t get the win. Game 3 played out quite differently. Very early in the game, Jamie Benn took an extremely stupid cross-checking penalty as he ran over Mark Stone, getting a five-minute major and a game misconduct. Vegas scored on that power play, giving them an early 2-0 lead just 5:57 into the game. They scored again just 1:13 later to go up 3-0 and with how sound the Knights are defensively, cruised to a 4-0 shutout win. Adin Hill made 34 saves in his shutout to put the Stars on the brink of elimination at home. Dallas outshot Vegas significantly, 34-16, and outplayed the Knights by an expected goal rate of 2.35-0.81, but the score was obviously much more lopsided. The Stars picked up their first win of the series with a 3-2 overtime win at home in Game 4 with Joe Pavelski being the hero, scoring his game-winner on the power play, 3:18 into OT. It was a tight and close game, with the teams trading goals in the first and second periods, as Dallas outshot the Knights 42-39 and outplayed Vegas by an expected goal rate of 3.33-2.45. The Golden Knights scored in the first 4:17 of the first period and then just scored once more in the next 59:01 of the game. Dallas extended the series on Saturday night in Game 5 with a huge 4-2 win on the road in Vegas, scoring three unanswered goals to win, including two form Ty Dellandrea less than two minutes apart in the third period. The Stars outshot the Knights 34-29 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.58-2.68. After choking away two chances to close out this series and advance for Vegas, I think momentum has shifted in the Stars favor and I’d slightly lean that they force Game 7 here. I can cash my Game 7 bet to win a unit if they do so, but as a partial hedge, I’ll take the Golden Knights team total over 2.5 again here for a unit. Although this series has trended under, with Games 2, 3, and 4 staying under the total and Game 1 needing a four-goal third period to hit the over, I’d lean the over a bit tonight in Game 6 and expect it to hit for the second game in a row. Elimination games always trend to the over since chaos occurs in the third period when the series-leading team has a lead. We see goalies getting pulled much earlier and in multi-goal deficits with plenty of empty net goals. I don’t see the Stars going down without a fight, and they should both trade goals in this game earlier on. That being said, I expect the Golden Knights to be leading late in this game to finally end this series after two failed attempts to in Games 5 and 6, as they have through two of the five previous games in this series, and Oettinger to be on the bench early. With a few empty net goals, that should put the game over the low 5.5 total. Since I’m on the Vegas team total though, I’ll stay off the over.
Game Bets
1u Golden Knights TT over 2.5 (-124)
Series Bets
.5u Golden Knights/Stars over 6.5 games (+200)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
2u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+815)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
Record: 807-674-35 (-91.92 units)
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