“Jack’s Place”
This week the PGA Tour goes to Columbus, Ohio for The Memorial Tournament, an elevated event with a great invitational field at Jack’s Place, Muirfield Village Golf Club.
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7550 yards, Jack Nicklaus designed, the Par 5s are reachable in 2 but have the second lowest going for the green percentage on tour besides Colonial, 6 of the 7 most difficult holes are Par 4s between 450-500 yards, bent grass fairways and greens, tree lined easy to hit fairways (~69%) with deep fairway bunkers that are penal (only about 40% of golfers that hit fairway bunkers make par), the fairways get more narrow around the 300 yard mark, 73 bunkers, 13 water hazards that are in play on 11 holes, water is placed in tricky spots with creeks running through the course with some on entire holes, less than driver course that favors placement for approach shots and this course ranks in bottom 10 courses on tour in driving distance but high driving accuracy vs. tour average (~69% vs. 62%), difficult to hit out of thick 3-4.5 inch rough, longest proximity inside 100 yards from the rough of any course on tour, harder than average greens to hit (~61% vs. tour average 66%), scrambling is very difficult at this course and top five most difficult on tour (~52% vs. tour average 58%), second lowest birdie+ % from the rough on tour, extremely fast small greens with heavy undulation, despite those greens they have the lowest three putt rate of any course on tour and its in the top 5 of 5-10 feet and 10-15 feet, many of the greens slope back to front, water and greenside bunkers in play (this course has the longest proximity on tour from shots out of green side bunkers and they’re the hardest on tour), rain softening the course can make it play much easier, in 2016 at -1 was the only year since 2003 that the cut line was under par
Lots of renovation to the course before the 2021 season with all of the grass on the fairways and greens redone, adjusted bunkers, changed contours to the greens, added a bunch of new trees and new tee boxes that when maxed out can lengthen the course around 100 yards. The only significant changes to these is the greens and the resodding of the greens will make them very firm for the first few years. The new contours of the greens makes course history slightly less of a factor since reading the greens is newer for everyone.
Tournament Notes
- In 2021, Jon Rahm was forced to withdraw with a six stroke lead after Saturday’s round with a bullshit positive COVID test even though he was completely healthy. He would have easily won this tournament by a touchdown if that wasn’t the case and went on to win the US Open two weeks later
- Approach here is 3.5x more important here than SG: OTT (most courses it is around 2.5x) and SG: ARG is actually more significant than SG:OTT here
- Prior to Billy Horschel last year, the last 14 winners here has ranked in the top 10 for the season in SG: Approach
- Last year 5 of the T6 finishes finished in the T10 in Approach, in 2021 5 of the T5 and 6 of the T10 finished in the T10 in Approach
- The 2020 Workday Championship was also held here the week prior to the Memorial with a slightly easier setup, which Morikawa won
Key Stats
Approach, GIR, Par 4 scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (22.8%), 175-200 yards (22.2%)
Note: 175-200 yards range might be more important with the lengthening of the course and the more difficult holes on the course being longer Par 4s that leave a longer approach shot
Field
120 golfers – invitational field as an elevated event with all eligible players besides Finau and Homa in the field
Defending Champion: Billy Horschel (-13)
Runner Up Last Year: Aaron Wise (-9)
One and Done: Hideki Matsuyama
One and Done Considerations: Rahm, Scheffler, Xander, Hovland, Cantlay, Hideki
Players
Jon Rahm: 11000: +1000 – The best player in the world, should’ve won here in 2021 defending his 2020 title when the win was stolen from him due to the covid bullshit as he had to WD with a seven stroke lead after his Saturday round, 10,WD,1,MC finishes here and finished 27th at the Workday here in 2020, 50,2,15,1,39,1,3,7,1,1,4,15,8,5 finishes in his last 14 events, 4th in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 31st in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 19th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 5th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 59th in Sand Saves, 43rd in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 2nd in GIRs Gained, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Bogie Avoidance, I wouldn’t bet him at +750 but I think it’s worth it at the +1000 boosted on DraftKings Sportsbook
Viktor Hovland: 9700: +2000 – 5147,48 finishes his three times here and finished 3rd here at the Workday in 2020, 16,2,43,59,7,3,10,20,42,13,18,10,21,5 finishes in his last 14 events, 8th in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 2nd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 10th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 34th in Sand Saves, 100th in SG: ARG, 71st in Putting, 21st in GIRs Gained, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Bogie Avoidance
Hideki Matsuyama: 8700: +4000 – Has played well recently after returning from injury with 29,23,16,15,5 finishes in his last five events, former winner here in 2014 with 62,MC,6,13,5,MC,5,1 finishes here and finished 22nd here in the 2020 Workday, 19th in Approach, 53rd in SG: OTT, 41st in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 6th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 37th in Proximity 200+ yards, 33rd in Sand Saves, 11th in SG: ARG, 65th in Putting, 36th in GIRs Gained, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Bogie Avoidance
Rickie Fowler: 8500: +4000 – Has to break through and get a win eventually with the way he’s played this season, 64,11,MC,14,8,2,MC,MC,MC,37,52,22,2 finishes here and finished 22nd here at the Workday in 2020, 6,MC,14,15,10,13,31,20,10,11,54,34,2,MC,6 finish in his last 15 events, 6th in Approach, 63rd in SG: OTT, 21st in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 17th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 20th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 103rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 41st in Sand Saves, 23rd in SG: ARG, 16th in Putting, 28th in GIRs Gained, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Bogie Avoidance
Wyndham Clark: 8200: +7000 – Really pops in my model this week, 37,MC,MC finishes here the last three years, MC,1,24,29,6,5,27,34,33,10,37,50,19,16,29,16 finishes in his last 16 events, 3rd in Approach, 74th in SG: OTT, 18th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 29th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 18th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 54th in Proximity 200+ yards, 26th in Sand Saves, 38th in SG: ARG, 31st in Putting, 14th in GIRs Gained, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
SG: ARG (15%)
Putting (5%)
GIRs Gained (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I’ll be looking at SG: Approach leaders live after Round 1 and 2 for Live Betting opportunities with how important that stat is on this course.
Bets
Outrights
1u Jon Rahm (+1000)
.5u Viktor Hovland (+2000)
.3u Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)
.3u Rickie Fowler (+4000)
.2u Wyndham Clark (+7000)
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