We’re finally here. The Stanley Cup Finals. Just two remaining teams, the #1 seed in the Western Conference, the Vegas Golden Knights and the #8 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Florida Panthers. A new champion will be crowned this season as neither of these teams have ever lifted Lord Stanley. It will be the second appearance in the finals for both teams after the Panthers lost to the Avalanche in 1996, making their first finals appearance this season in 27 years, and the Golden Knights lost to the Capitals in their inaugural 2016 season. The Golden Knights got past the Jets in five games, the Oilers in six games, and then the Stars in six games in the Western Conference Finals. The Panthers shocked the world, going down 3-1 to the Bruins in the first round and going 11-1 since then, coming back from that deficit to win it in seven games in overtime, then knocking off the Leafs in five games and sweeping the Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Finals, defeating the #1, #2, and #3 seeds in the East with legendary goaltending and clutch scoring.
These cross-conference teams split their two regular season games this season, each won by the home team. In the first game on January 12th, the Golden Knights won 4-2 in the fortress on a three-goal unanswered third period in a game where the Panthers outshot Vegas 39-33. Jack Eichel tied the game up 8:37 into the third and William Carrier scored the late game-winner with just 2:36 remaining in regulation before Wild Bill Karlsson iced the game off with an empty net goal with 1:07 left. The Panthers answered back with a 2-1 win on March 7th in Florida, a low scoring battle where Florida once again outshot the Knights, 34-23. Even with the goalie carousels for both teams during the regular season this year, the goaltending matchup in both of those games were Adin Hill vs Sergei Bobrovsky.
After missing the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last season, the Golden Knights bounced back this year, quietly finishing the regular season as the top seed in the West with a 51-22-9 record, a point ahead of the Oilers. They closed out the regular season hot, on an eight game point streak with a great 24-4-5 record in their last 33 games. They finished first in the West despite not being top ten in goals for, goals against, power play, penalty kill, shots for, or shots against and that was without one of their best players, Mark Stone in the lineup for more than half of the regular season. This team just knows how to win. Playoff hockey in Vegas is electric and T-Mobile Arena is going to be rocking.
Vegas has had success on both ends of the ice. They’ve scored an average of 3.26 goals per game, the 14th-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.5 shots per game. They’ve generated the 16th-most expected goals (3.18 per game) and the tenth-most high-danger shots in the league. The Knights have scored on 20.3% of their power play opportunities. They’re led in scoring by Jack Eichel (66 points), Jonathan Marchessault (28 goals), and Chandler Stephenson (48 assists). Eichel has played in 476 regular season games in the NHL and tonight he will finally start in the first playoff game of his career. Vegas also announced a huge addition to their lineup this week, activating captain Mark Stone from the long-term IR, with the salary cap no longer existing in the playoffs.
The Golden Knights have allowed just the eleventh-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.74 goals per game on an average of 30.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fifth-fewest expected goals (2.85 per game) and the sixth-fewest high-danger shots. Vegas has killed off 77.6% of their penalties. That didn’t come into play a whole lot though, as they were the least penalized team in the NHL in the regular season. The starter these playoffs for the Knights has been Laurent Brossoit, who in his return from injury late in the season started seven of the last ten games for Vegas. In his limited starts this year he hasn’t lost in regulation, with a 7-0-3 record, a 2.17 GAA, and a .927 save percentage. Brossoit is 2-2 in his six appearances against the Oilers, with a .922 save percentage and a 2.14 GAA in those games. Backing him up is veteran Jonathan Quick, acquired at the trade deadline from LA by way of Columbus. This season he has a 16-15–6 record, a 3.41 GAA, a .882 save percentage, and two shutouts during his time with both the Kings and the Knights.
The first round series for Vegas was the only one of the first round to not go at least six games, as they eliminated the Jets in five games. Vegas was pretty terrible in Game 1 at home in the Fortress on Tuesday night, shocking me with a 5-1 blowout loss at home to the Jets. They generated their fewest shots on goal all season (thankfully Eichel hit his 2.5 prop though), getting outshot 31-17 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 3.7-2.02. Just a terrible game for the Knights, especially offensively. They bounced back in a huge way though to win the next four games in a row to win the series. In Game 2, Vegas answered back in a big way winning 5-2 at home, and outshooting the Jets 39-33. Although Winnipeg outplayed the Knights by an expected goal rate of 3.26-3.14, Mark Stone’s two third-period goals led to a Vegas win and a tied series. In Game 3, the Golden Knights took their first lead of this series, going up 2-1 with their second win in a row, beating the Jets 5-4 in overtime on the road. After blowing a 4-1 lead heading into the third period, and giving up the game-tying goal with just 22 seconds left in regulation, Vegas won 3:40 into the second overtime period on a goal from Michael Amadio. The Knights outshot Winnipeg 48-34 and outplayed the Jets by an expected goal rate of 4.32-3.04. The Golden Knights got this series back on track in Game 2, bouncing back from their Game 1 loss and then took the series lead on Saturday night in Game 3 in Winnipeg with a win on the road. That should not have been as close as the score indicated as they were the much better team and blew a 4-1 lead in the third period, but still managed to get the win. Vegas won Game 4, 4-2 in Winnipeg outshooting the Jets 30-26 and slightly outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 2.21-2.11. They closed out the series with a 4-1 win in Game 5 at home, outplaying the Jets by an expected goal rate of 4.7-3.36.
In the second round, the Golden Knights took down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the two best hockey players in the world and the Edmonton Oilers in six games, dominating 5-on-5 play. In Game 1 in the fortress, Vegas got a huge 6-4 win to start off the series. The Knights outshot the Oilers 34-27 but for the game Edmonton slightly outplayed Vegas by an expected goal rate of 3.22-3.1. Vegas absolutely dominated 5-on-5, and although by the advanced statistics it was only by an expected goal rate of 2.11-1.64, they were the way better team. The Knights took all the momentum out of the Oilers offense, answering back from two of Edmonton’s goals within a minute. The Oilers got held without a shot for 12 minutes at one point, but they still scored four goals, despite their bottom 9 forwards only having just 12 combined shots all game with Leon Draisaitl scoring all four of Edmonton’s goals. In Game 2, the Oilers answered back in a huge way on Saturday night, winning 5-1 on the road in Vegas. They of course, were lead by none other than Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who each scored twice (along with an assist for McJesus). Edmonton outshot the Knights 36-31 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 4.38-3.07. In Game 3 as the series shifted to Edmonton, the Golden Knights took back home ice advantage, dominating with a 5-1 victory on the road. Led by Jack Eichel (1 goal, 2 assists) and Jonathan Marchessault (2 goals), they were the far better team, outshooting the Oilers 33-28 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 3.61-2.29. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, the two best players in the world right now were completely held off the score sheet. The Oilers scored 2:45 into the game to open the scoring and were shut out the remainder of the game. After losing starting goalie Laurent Brossoit to injury 11:44 into the game, Adin Hill came in and had a 24 save performance without giving up even a goal. The Oilers answered right back in Game 4 at home, with a big 4-1 win in a chippy, physical game that saw some dirtbag plays that caused a lot of controversy in the hockey world. That was the first regulation loss on the road for Vegas since early March. They were outshot 33-26 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 2.99-1.2. In Game 5, the Knights bounced back with a 4-3 win at home to take a 3-2 series lead in the best game of the series. Prior to Game 5, every game was pretty much a blowout. The Knights were outshot 35-31 but outplayed Edmonton by an expected goal rate of 4.2-3.65. It was a game of power play scoring, as five of the seven goals in the game were scored on the power play, and the Oilers were held off the score sheet entirely in 5-on-5 play. Vegas finished off the series with a big 5-2 win in Edmonton in Game 6 to advance to the Western Conference Finals, with all five of their goals scored by original misfits. The Knights were outshot 40-22 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 4.45-2.93, but found a way to win.
The Golden Knights started off the Western Conference Finals extremely hot, getting out to a 3-0 lead but after an overtime loss in Game 4 and a loss in the third period of Game 5, it took six games for them to knock off the Dallas Stars and advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. In Game 1, the Golden Knights opened the series with a 4-3 overtime win after a high-scoring four-goal third period. The Stars forced overtime on Jamie Benn’s goal with 1:59 remaining in regulation but Brett Howden was the overtime hero just 1:35 into OT to get the Knights the win at home in the Fortress to take a 1-0 series lead. Vegas outshot the Stars 37-36 and outplayed Dallas by an expected goal rate of 2.9-2.22. Game 2 was just as fun. It started quicker, with the teams trading goals in the first period. This time it was Vegas that tied up the game late as Jonathan Marchessault forced overtime with his goal with just 2:22 left in regulation and then Chandler Stephenson gave Vegas the 2-0 series lead at home heading on the road to Dallas tonight for Game 3. The Stars outshot Vegas 28-24 and outplayed the Knights by an expected goal rate of 3.24-2.88 but couldn’t get the win. Game 3 played out quite differently. Very early in the game, Jamie Benn took an extremely stupid cross-checking penalty as he ran over Mark Stone, getting a five-minute major and a game misconduct. Vegas scored on that power play, giving them an early 2-0 lead just 5:57 into the game. They scored again just 1:13 later to go up 3-0 and with how sound the Knights are defensively, cruised to a 4-0 shutout win. Adin Hill made 34 saves in his shutout to put the Stars on the brink of elimination at home. Dallas outshot Vegas significantly, 34-16, and outplayed the Knights by an expected goal rate of 2.35-0.81, but the score was obviously much more lopsided. The Stars picked up their first win of the series with a 3-2 overtime win at home in Game 4 with Joe Pavelski being the hero, scoring his game-winner on the power play, 3:18 into OT. It was a tight and close game, with the teams trading goals in the first and second periods, as Dallas outshot the Knights 42-39 and outplayed Vegas by an expected goal rate of 3.33-2.45. The Golden Knights scored in the first 4:17 of the first period and then just scored once more in the next 59:01 of the game. Dallas extended the series on Saturday night in Game 5 with a huge 4-2 win on the road in Vegas, scoring three unanswered goals to win, including two form Ty Dellandrea less than two minutes apart in the third period. The Stars outshot the Knights 34-29 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.58-2.68. After choking away two chances to close out the series, the Golden Knights left no doubt in Game 6, as they completed the Western Conference Final with a 6-0 victory. Original misfit William Carrier scored 3:41 into the game, which turned out to be the game-winner, as Adin Hill picked up a 29-23 shutout with four of the six goals in the game scored by the original misfits, Carrier, Karlsson, and Marchessault. Vegas outshot the Stars 29-23 and the Knights dominated Dallas by an expected goal rate of 3.34-1.1.
Vegas has been spectacular on both ends of the ice in these playoffs. They’ve scored the third-most goals of the teams that made the playoffs, averaging 3.65 goals per game on an average of 30 shots per game. Their power play has scored on 18.5% of their chances. Defensively they’ve allowed an average of just 2.65 goals per game, the fourth-fewest goals of the 16 teams that made the playoffs, on an average of 32.4 shots allowed. The Knights’ penalty kill has struggled, killing off only 63% of their penalties, the third-worst of the teams that made the playoffs. Adin Hill’s been very good in goal, with a 2.07 GAA, a .937 save percentage, and two shutouts these playoffs.
After a slow start to the year after winning the President’s Trophy last year and getting bounced from the playoffs in the second round in the Battle of Florida against their rival Lightning, the Florida Panthers really rallied in the second half of the season. They finished the regular season in the second and final Wild Card spot in the East, with a 42-32-8 record, a point ahead of the Penguins and the Sabres. Florida got lucky to get in, with Pittsburgh losing to the Blackhawks on the second-last day of the season to give the Panthers their spot in the playoffs. Despite closing out the regular season with two losses, they ended the regular season hot with a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games.
Florida has been very good offensively this season. They’re averaging 3.51 goals per game, the sixth-most in the NHL, on an average of 36.8 shots per game. They’ve generated the most expected goals (3.8 per game) and the most high-danger shots in the league. The Panthers’ power play has scored on 22.8% of their chances, the tenth-best in the NHL. Matthew Tkachuk (109 points, 69 assists), who was acquired in the offseason from the Calgary Flames and became an excellent addition to the Cats, and Carter Verhaeghe (42 goals) led Florida in scoring this season.
The Panthers have struggled on the back end, allowing an average of 3.68 goals per game this season, the twelfth-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.7 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the eighth-most expected goals (3.42 per game) and the third-most high-danger shots. Their penalty kill has struggled at just 75.9%, the tenth-worst in the NHL. Alex Lyon, the third-string goalie to start the season for Florida became their #1 to start their series against the Bruins with Sergei Bobrovsky having his struggles this year in goal (24-20-3 record, 3.07 GAA, .901 save percentage) and Spencer Knight away from the team for a bulk of the season with personal issues. Lyon caught some lightning in a bottle late in the year, starting the last eight games for Florida this season and going 6-1-1 in those games in their playoff push. He ended the regular season with a 9-4-2 record, a 2.89 GAA, a .914 save percentage, and a shutout on the year. Bobrovsky took over in that series though and dominated games down the stretch of the series to keep the Panthers alive and help them advance through the Bruins to the second round.
The Panthers pulled off the biggest upset in NHL history in the first round, knocking off the greatest regular season team in NHL history in seven games, defeating the President’s Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. It was an insane win and they had luck on their side to come back and win the series. The Bruins broke the record for the best regular season in history with the most points and most wins in league history. They dominated the regular season and even had a 3-1 series lead with several opportunities to end it, but the Panthers came back (with a little…or a lot of luck on their side) to knock off Boston in overtime of Game 7. After splitting the first two games in Boston to open the series where the Bruins played pretty lousy hockey at home, the Bs won the next two games in Florida pretty easily, putting the Panthers on the brink of elimination. In Game 5 at home in Boston, the Bruins were by far the dominant team, outshooting Florida 47-25 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 4.52-3.86, but the Panthers still got extended the series with a fantastic performance in goal from Sergei Bobrovsky in a 4-3 overtime win for the Panthers on Matthew Tkachuk’s game-winner. After the first two games of this series, the Bruins were the far better team in the series, dominating Games 3, 4, and 5, despite losing Game 5 which they likely should have finished this series in as they put 47 shots on the Panthers. Game 6 in Florida was highly entertaining, with the Panthers winning 7-5 at home in a game that saw seven third-period goals. Boston outshot the Panthers 34-33 and led twice in the third period, but couldn’t get it done and Florida outplayed the Bruins by an expected goal rate of 4.85-4.02. In Game 7, the Panthers ended the series in overtime, with Brandon Montour scoring the game-tying goal with just a minute left in regulation to force overtime and then Carter Verhaeghe scoring the game-winner 8:35 into overtime. Boston outshot Florida 36-31 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 2.98-2.59.
Against the Leafs in round two, another series that Florida was a big underdog in, in Game 1 of the series, the Panthers surprised a lot of people, continuing the momentum of beating the Bruins, as they picked up a huge 4-2 win on the road. The Leafs outshot Florida 36-28 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 5.8-2.8, but with a huge performance in goal from Sergei Bobrovsky, they couldn’t get the win. Toronto didn’t adjust in Game 2, still trying to be too fancy, and lost 3-2 in Game 2 at home to get into a 2-0 hole going back to Florida. In Game 2, they scored twice in the first 5:10 of the game, blew that lead to go down 3-2 in the game just 1:06 into the second period and after not seeing any more goals from either team for the remainder of the game, it’s looking like Toronto’s going to need a miracle to find a way to win this series. They outshot the Panthers 37-29 and outplayed Florida by an expected goal rate of 4.12-2.89, yet still couldn’t win again. They were bad on the defensive blue line and just tried too much rather than simplifying their offensive play. In Game 3 as the series shifted to Florida, the Panthers put the Leafs on the brink of elimination with a 3-2 win on Sam Reinhart’s game-winner 3:02 into overtime. They outshot Toronto 29-24 and outplayed the Leafs by an expected goal rate of 3.57-2.33. The core four for Toronto, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares had not scored even one goal in this series. In Game 4, they turned that around though, and avoided the sweep, picking up a 2-1 win in a tight game in Florida on the road. Off a lucky bounce off the official, Nylander scored his first goal of the series in the second period and Marner scored the eventual game-winner with less than ten minutes left in the game, on the way to a 2-1 win for Toronto. Although both teams had 25 shots on goal, the Panthers outplayed the Leafs by an expected goal rate of 3.02-2.66 in the losing effort. After being unable to complete the sweep at home in a close game, the Panthers ended the series with a 3-2 overtime win in Game 5 in Toronto. The Maple Leafs were the better team in that game, outshooting Florida 52-43 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 4.67-3.2, but with yet another great night from Bobrovsky in goal, the Panthers got the series win on the road.
In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Panthers completed the most evenly matched sweep in hockey history, eliminating the Carolina Hurricanes in four games, all in one-goal victories. We started the series with an excellent and competitive Game 1 on Thursday night with 3-2 Panthers win on the road in quadruple overtime. Matthew Tkachuk ended the sixth-longest game in NHL history 19:47 into the fourth overtime period to give Florida a 1-0 series lead, after a controversial no-goal call very early in the first overtime on goaltender interference. The Hurricanes outshot the Panthers 65-60 and outplayed Florida by an expected goal rate of 6.5-4.41 in the loss. The game was a defensive grind with 120 saves. Game 2 on Saturday night went to overtime in a low-scoring matchup as well, with the same result as none other than Matthew Tkachuk scored the game-winner once again, winning 2-1 just 1:51 into OT, once again on the power play from some picture perfect passing, but this time much quicker than the 4OTs it took in Game 1. If they win the cup, that Tkachuk trade might go down as one of the best trades in NHL history. The Hurricanes outshot Florida 38-26 in Game 2 and dominated play, especially early, outplaying the Panthers by an expected goal rate of 4.49-2.85, but just couldn’t figure out Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky was incredible once again in Game 3 as the series shifted to Lauderdale, shutting out the Canes to give his Panthers a commanding 3-0 series lead with Sam Reinhart’s power play goal in the second period being the only goal scored all game. Carolina outshot the Panthers 32-17 and outplayed Florida by an expected goal rate of 2.14-1.91, but the Canes couldn’t solve Bobrovsky again. We got an electric finish to the series with none other than Matthew Tkachuk scoring the game winner with 4.3 seconds left in regulation to sweep the Hurricanes with a 4-3 win at home in Game 4. In that Game 4 loss for the Canes, they outshot Florida 39-24 but were outplayed by the Panthers by an expected goal rate of 3.49-3.19.
Florida’s played well these playoffs on both sides of the ice, with Sergei Bobrovsky being the x-factor for them in goal. Offensively, they’ve scored an average of 3.13 goals per game, the seventh-most of the teams that made the playoffs, on an average of 31.7 shots per game. On the power play, the Panthers have capitalized on 27.9% of their chances. Defensively, the Cats have allowed the sixth-fewest goals in these playoffs, an average of just 2.69 goals per game on the incredible play of Bob in goal, allowing an average of 37.3 shots per game. Bobrovsky’s been playing to an insane level, with a 2.21 GAA, a .935 save percentage, and a shutout these playoffs, making the most timely saves to get the Panthers to where they are today. Their penalty kill hasn’t been great, killing off just 71.2% of their penalties, the fourth-fewest of the teams that made the playoffs.
I have futures on both of these teams still alive, with a two unit future from November on the Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup with fantastic value at +1200 and half a unit at an insane value of +4000 on Sergei Bobrovsky to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as the MVP of the playoffs. Both of those look beautiful now, as the Knights are -130 favorites to win the Cup and Bob is the favorite to win the Conn Smythe at +215. The ideal scenario for me is a Golden Knights win in seven games that are all low-scoring with a player from the losing team winning the Conn Smythe for the first time since Jean-Sebastien Giguere won it in 2003 as the Mighty Ducks lost the Cup to the Devils.
This long run that the Panthers have gone on, going 11-1 since being down 3-1 to the Bruins in the first round to knock off the #1 seed Bruins, the #3 seed Leafs, and the #2 seed Hurricanes has been incredible. What a run it’s been and it reminds me of the 2012 LA Kings, that were a team of destiny that won on the back of incredible goaltending of Jonathan Quick. Sergei Bobrovsky has played at an insane level these playoffs and if it weren’t for his performance in goal and a good amount of luck on their side, the Panthers wouldn’t be here just four games away from lifting the Stanley Cup. That being said, after the second longest layoff in NHL history between a series with ten days off in Lauderdale, I think that run is over. The Golden Knights are the better team in this series and have played better both offensively and defensively than the Panthers have in these playoffs. The only way I see the Panthers winning this series is if Bobrovsky steals it, but with the much better defense and much deeper team in general, I think this year’s Stanley Cup Champions are the Vegas Golden Knights. Expecting the Golden Knights to win the Cup, I’ll double down on them in Game 1 with a unit on the moneyline at home in the fortress.
I expect the games in this series to trend under on the incredible play by Bobrovsky in goal for the Panthers and the fantastic defense of the Golden Knights. Both of these teams trended under in the conference finals. I think every game will be a defensive battle and I’ll start the Cup Finals with the alternate under 6 in Game 1 for half a unit.
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
Series Bets
None
Game 1 Bets
1u Golden Knights ML (-132)
.5u Golden Knights/Panthers under 6 (-129)
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