Last week I cashed my 5th outright of the season on Viktor Hovland, my third in the last four weeks. After the most dramatic week in PGA Tour history with the merger this week (blog coming soon with my thoughts), this week the tour heads to Oakdale Country Club in Toronto for the first time for the RBC Canadian Open before the US Open next week.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7079 yards, 12 Par 4s, 3 Par 3s and 3 Par 5s, the course is set up using different holes combined from three 9 hole courses on the property, they can pretty easily move tee boxes around to lengthen the course from round to round, two of the Par 5s should be reachable by the entire field with the third one being reachable by some, two of the Par 3s are around 200 yards and the other one is 180 but severely downhill to shorten it, 5 of the Par 4s are between 350-400 yards, 3 of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, 4 of the Par 4s are between 450-500 yards, average sized tree lined fairways with a few fairway bunkers and water on 2-3 holes with the landing areas getting pretty thin, lot of elevation changes, lot of golfers will likely leave driver in the bag on a lot of the shorter holes, the rough is going to be very thick and tall (around 4-5 inches tall), not really any runoff areas around the greens so if you miss the green you’ll end up in the thicker rough and with false fronts and a few bunkers guarding the greens, a lot of elevated greens, average sized bent grass and poa blended greens, this event is usually a birdiefest and this course maps out to be one as well
Tournament Notes
- This is the first time that this course is hosting this event
- This event changes courses pretty regularly
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Good Drives Gained
Field
155 golfers – Not bad field strength with 10 of the Top 30 PGA players in the field
Defending Champion (St. George’s): Rory McIlroy (-19)
Runner Up Last Year (St. George’s): Tony Finau (-17)
One and Done: Tyrrell Hatton
One and Done Considerations: Hatton, Rory, Rose
Players
Tyrrell Hatton: 10200: +1100 – My favorite pick this week, fantastic on approach and OTT, has gained strokes putting in his last six events, has finished T6 in five of his last ten starts with 12,15,5,3,19,34,MC,2,4,40,6,13 in his last twelve events, 4th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Good Drives Gained, 20th in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 18th in Par 5 Scoring, 30th in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained
Corey Conners: 9800: +2200 – The best Canadian in the field, MC,12,8,31,MC,1 finishes in his last six events, 8th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 4th in Good Drives Gained, 64th in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, 78th in SG: ARG, 88th in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained
Justin Rose: 9700: +1800 – Playing great with a win already this season, 12,9,25,16,36,6,MC,MC,1,18,26,29,9 finishes in his last 13 events, 2nd in Approach, 55th in SG: OTT, 9th in Good Drives Gained, 13th in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 24th in SG: ARG, 34th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained
Michael Kim: 8000: +7000 – 6,MC,7,30,46,26,45,5,MC,11 finishes in his last ten events, 26th in Approach, 51st in SG: OTT, 6th in Good Drives Gained, 7th in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 48th in Par 5 Scoring, 61st in SG: ARG, 32nd in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 22nd in Birdie+ Gained
Eric Cole: 7900: +5500 – 24,MC,15,23,MC,5,39,MC,27,MC,2,15 finishes in his last twelve events, 13th in Approach, 49th in SG: OTT, 104th in Good Drives Gained, 101st in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in Par 5 Scoring, 14th in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdie+ Gained
Ben Martin: 7300: +13000 – His lack of distance shouldn’t hurt him here, his approach game has been great this season, three T10s in his last eight starts with 57,MC,46,41,10,8,45,54,5,13 finishes in his last ten events, 12th in Approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 7th in Good Drives Gained, 79th in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 63rd in Par 5 Scoring, 130th in SG: ARG, 36th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained
Mark Hubbard: 7300: +9500 – Was in contention and led the Memorial at one point last week, 30,9,75,27,18,11 finishes in his last six events, 6th in Approach, 74th in SG: OTT, 16th in Good Drives Gained, 15th in Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 62nd in Par 5 Scoring, 45th in SG: ARG, 77th in Putting, 26th in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives Gained (15%)
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (15%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Rory is the back-to-back defending champ and obviously the favorite for this event and he can wax the field but with the extra media and bullshit around the PGA Tour and LIV Tour merger, there isn’t a chance I’m betting him at +500
- I have a slightly bigger card this week but with more cheaper long shots
Bets
Outrights
1u Tyrrell Hatton +1100
.6u Justin Rose +1800
.5u Corey Conners +2200
.2u Eric Cole +5500
.16u Michael Kim +7000
.12u Mark Hubbard +9500
.1u Ben Martin +13000
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 