I had another profitable night in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals on Monday night, going 2-2 to win .44 units as the Golden Knights dominated the Panthers in a 7-2 victory to take a 2-0 series lead and hit the over. Tonight we have a pivotal Game 3 as the series shifts to Florida.
Game 3: Panthers vs. Golden Knights (8:00)
Coming into Game 3 tonight, the Golden Knights are up 2-0 in the series after dominating both previous games at home in Vegas. The Golden Knights took a 1-0 series lead at home in Game 1 on Saturday night in a good game, with a hot three-goal unanswered third period to win 5-2 in a game that was tied 2-2 after 40 minutes. It was anyone’s game at that point and very evenly matched with Adin Hill making the save of the year when the game was tied 1-1 early in the second period in reminiscent fashion to Holtby’s save against the Golden Knights in the 2016 Cup Finals that seemed to change the game. Vegas took control in the third period, with their defense dominating. They scored three goals unanswered to win 5-2, taking the 1-0 series lead at home. The Panthers outshot the Golden Knights 35-34 in the loss but got beat by an expected goal rate of 4.79-2.59. Vegas dominated Game 2 at home even more, with a huge 7-2 victory that had to be deflating to the Eastern Conference Champs. They started the game with a 4-0 lead just 7:10 into the second period and rode that to the easy win. The Knights chased Bobrovsky, the Conn Smythe favorite going into the Finals out of the net in 24 minutes, replaced by Adin Hill. The Panthers outshot Vegas 31-28 and outplayed the Knights by an expected goal rate of 2.84-2.65, but that clearly did not matter. The Golden Knights have now scored more goals on Sergei Bobrovsky in 84 minutes than the Hurricanes did in the entire Eastern Conference Finals series. This long run that the Panthers have gone on, going 11-1 since being down 3-1 to the Bruins in the first round to knock off the #1 seed Bruins, the #3 seed Leafs, and the #2 seed Hurricanes has been incredible. What a run it’s been and it reminds me of the 2012 LA Kings, that were a team of destiny that won on the back of incredible goaltending of Jonathan Quick. Sergei Bobrovsky has played at an insane level these playoffs and if it weren’t for his performance in goal and a good amount of luck on their side, the Panthers wouldn’t be here in the Cup Finals. That run is over now. The Golden Knights are the better team in this series and have played better offensively and defensively than the Panthers in these playoffs. They’ve dominated their victories in both games of this series to give them the 2-0 lead and although a series doesn’t start till you lose at home, I don’t see the Panthers bouncing back here and I expect the Golden Knights to win the Cup. This is a must win game for them or the series is over. Florida’s got to be completely deflated with the way they lost both games in Vegas and the Knights should take the 3-0 series lead to get a game away from winning the Stanley Cup. To help that even more, the Golden Knights have won the first road game of every series. Although I could see Florida winning tonight to extend this series, I think the Knights win the Cup in probably five games. I love my Knights to win the Cup future at +1200, which looks perfect now after the first two games. I think my hedge on Bobrovsky’s dead now (although that’s still such phenomenal value), which is fine since Vegas is just two games away from lifting Lord Stanley. I’m expect Jonathan Marchassault, the original misfit and now the favorite to win the Conn Smythe to win it and considered betting it, but I just don’t think there’s enough value to it at -118. Jack Eichel (6 goals, 16 assists) actually has one more point than Marchessault (12 goals, 9 assists), so it makes me think there’s a little bit more value to Eichel winning it, but since I think the original misfit wins it anyway, I think the best move is to just stay off any Conn Smythe bets. I’m going to keep doubling down on the Golden Knights who I see some great value on tonight. I’ll take the Vegas team total over 2.5 for a unit along with Vegas +1 for a unit at a reasonable -165 price (great value on the moneyline at +104, but I’d rather give myself the push if they lose by a goal). Going into this series, I thought this series would trend under, but that script has absolutely flipped. With the amount of shots and really good scoring chances in Game 1, and the over hitting in that even with the fantastic play of Adin Hill on the Vegas side of things, and Game 2 flying over with the Golden Knights going over the total by themselves and the over hitting easily, I expect the trend of overs in this series continuing. Although I don’t expect to see Bobrovsky giving up five goals or getting pulled again, I like the over to hit tonight, especially if Vegas is up and the Panthers have to play desperately to try to stay in the series, and I’ll take the alternate over 5.5 for half a unit.
Game Bets
1u Golden Knights TT over 2.5 (-157)
1u Golden Knights +1 (-165)
.5u Panthers/Golden Knights over 5.5 (-134)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
Record: 811-679-35 (-92.62 units)
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A Town's Zone 