Last week I wasn’t great on Opening Weekend of the PLL season in Albany, going 1-3 to lose 0.7 units. This week the league heads to Charlotte, NC. Let’s bounce back!
Archers vs. Chrome (6/9 6:00)
Both of these teams started the season last week with victories in Albany. The Archers were the only team that won by multiple goals last weekend (hence me going 1-3) defeating the Cannons 16-13 with 54 shots and rookie Mike Sisselberger winning 80% of his faceoffs. The Archers had a decent season last year, but were disappointing as they went into the season as the favorites to win the championship but came up short. They finished the regular season going 6-4 then after beating the Redwoods 13-8 in the first round of the playoffs, lost 9-7 in a grind to the Chaos in the second round. The Archers averaged 13 scores per game on an average of 38.6 shots per game and allowed an average of 11 scores per game. The Chrome took down the Whipsnakes 12-11, generating 38 shots. The Chrome went from being the sole team to miss the playoffs two years ago to being pretty good last year with an entirely new look offense. After going 7-3 in the regular season, they got dominated 11-3 by the Chaos in the first round. Last year the Chrome averaged 12 scores per game on average of 37.1 shots per game while allowing an average of 10.2 scores per game. Last season in the sole game between these teams on Week 1, the Chrome beat the Archers 11-10. I think the Archers are the deeper and better team in this matchup and will take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Redwoods vs. Waterdogs (6/9 8:30)
These teams both opened the season with one goal wins last week in Albany. The Redwoods pulled off the 13-12 upset over the Atlas, a loss for me after I laid the 2.5 goal line on the Atlas. The Woods generated 38 shots on goal. The veteran-led Redwoods had a 4-6 record last year and lost 13-8 in the first round of the playoffs to the Archers. They scored an average of 11.4 scores per game and an average of 37.5 shots per game. Defensively they allowed an average of 12.4 scores per game. The defending champion Waterdogs started the year with a 8-7 win, generating 42 shots in a rematch of last year’s championship against a shell of the Chaos roster. I expected it to be a bigger win for the Dogs, even without their superstar goalie Dillon Ward, who was playing in the NLL Championship. They’ll have him back again this week. Last year the Waterdogs had a great season, winning the Championship after a 5-5 regular season. They opened the playoffs with a 19-14 win over the Atlas, grinded out an 11-10 win to beat the #1 seed Whipsnakes and then won 11-9 against the defending champion Chaos to win the title. Their offense was spectacular, averaging 13 scores per game on an average of 44 shots per game while they allowed an average of 13.3 scores per game. In the one game these teams played last season, the Redwoods won 14-12 in Week 10 against the eventual champs. I’m expecting a Waterdogs win to start the year 2-0 and will take them for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the under, but not enough to even consider betting it.
Atlas vs. Whipsnakes (6/10 3:00)
I thought both of these teams would be coming into this week’s game 1-0 but both lost on opening weekend. The Whipsnakes opened the season taking a 12-11 loss to the Chrome and although I wasn’t completely shocked by the result, I thought they’d win. They generated 47 shots in the loss and this week they’ll get their former MVP, Zed Williams back in the lineup after his NLL season came to an end last week for his Colorado Mammoth. Last year the Whips led the PLL last year with incredible defensive play, finishing first overall with a 9-1 regular season record but after a first round bye lost 11-10 to the Waterdogs in their second round playoff game. They averaged 11.8 scores per game on an average of 41.9 shots while allowing a league fewest average of 9.8 scores per game. Last week the Atlas opened the season with a 13-12 loss to the Redwoods in a very competitive game to start the weekend, but again, that was a surprise to me. They generated 46 shots in the loss. Last year the Atlas were pretty good during the regular season as their young offensive core led the way to their 6-4 regular season, making the playoffs but losing 19-14 in the first round of the playoffs to the eventual champion Waterdogs. They averaged 12.8 scores per game on an average of 39.5 shots per game. Defensively they allowed an average of 11.9 shots. Former MVP Trevor Baptiste led the league at the face-off stripe, as his Atlas won 63% of their draws, but he struggled a bit last week against TD Ierlan. These teams played twice last season with the Whipsnakes winning both games, winning 12-9 in Week 3 and then dominating in a 16-8 win in Week 10. I’d lean the Whips win this week and would lean the under but not enough to bet on either, so I’ll just stay off this game entirely.
Cannons vs. Chaos (6/10 5:30)
I’m expecting the Cannons to be horrible this season, just as they were last year. Last season the Cannons were the only team to miss the playoffs, going 1-9 in the regular season and they got worse this year as their leading scorer and the best lacrosse player in the world, Lyle Thompson is taking the season off from the PLL, choosing to spend time with him family and play Sr. A box lacrosse up in Six Nations instead. Last year with Lyle, they averaged 11.1 scores per game on an average of 39.4 shots per game. They allowed an average of 14 scores per game, the worst in the league. They lost 16-13 to the Archers on opening weekend, with the Archers -2.5 being my only win of the weekend, but they surprisingly hung in the game a little better than I expected. Despite their horrible defense giving up the most goals of the weekend, their offense, without Lyle this season, actually scored what was tied for the second most scores of the weekend. The Chaos were without almost their entire offense last week since they were out winning the NLL Championship in Buffalo for their Bandits. Last year the Chaos did the same thing as the year prior, having a horrible 2-8 regular season but sneaking into the playoffs as the last seed and then making noise. They defeated the Chrome 11-3 in the first round, beat the Archers 9-7 in the second round, but eventually fell to the Waterdogs 11-9 in the PLL Championship. Last season the Chaos averaged just 10.1 scores per game on an average of 31.6 shots per game, while allowing an average of 12.6 scores per game with the best goalie in the world in Blaze Riorden between the pipes. Their depleted lineup last week lost 8-7 in a pretty close game in a rematch of last year’s championship to the Waterdogs. They generated just 39 shots, but kept the game close on the back of Blaze Riorden’s 72% save percentage. The one game between these teams last year was a 13-11 win for the Chaos. With the (likely hungover) bulk of the Bandits making their Chaos season debuts for the season, I expect them to get a win here but not enough to lay the -139 on them. I’d also lean the over with the lousy defense of the Cannons and the Chaos getting more firepower back on their offense, but not enough to bet that either.
Bets
.5u Archers ML (-108)
.5u Waterdogs ML (-129)
Record: 1-3 (-0.7 units)
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