I lost in Game 3 of the Cup Finals on Thursday night with the late loss, going 0-2-1 to lose 2.24 units. Lets bounce back in Game 4 tonight with the Knights up 2-1.
Game 4: Panthers vs. Golden Knights (8:00)
I thought the Golden Knights were gonna sweep this series after dominating games 1 and 2, but after a clutch win for the Panthers, it’s 2-1 now and could become a series. I don’t see that happening though, as now I think it ends up being a gentleman’s sweep with Vegas winning in five, which looks great for my Knights future. Coming into Game 4 tonight, we have a competitive 2-1 series now as the Florida Panthers won 3-2 in overtime, in comeback fashion in Game 3 in a must-win game at home after the Golden Knights dominated both previous games at home in Vegas. The Golden Knights took a 1-0 series lead at home in Game 1 on Saturday night in a good game, with a hot three-goal unanswered third period to win 5-2 in a game that was tied 2-2 after 40 minutes. It was anyone’s game at that point and very evenly matched with Adin Hill making the save of the year when the game was tied 1-1 early in the second period in reminiscent fashion to Holtby’s save against the Golden Knights in the 2016 Cup Finals that seemed to change the game. Vegas took control in the third period, with their defense dominating. They scored three goals unanswered to win 5-2, taking the 1-0 series lead at home. The Panthers outshot the Golden Knights 35-34 in the loss but got beat by an expected goal rate of 4.79-2.59. Vegas dominated Game 2 at home even more, with a huge 7-2 victory that had to be deflating to the Eastern Conference Champs. They started the game with a 4-0 lead just 7:10 into the second period and rode that to the easy win. The Knights chased Bobrovsky, the Conn Smythe favorite going into the Finals out of the net in 24 minutes, replaced by Adin Hill. The Panthers outshot Vegas 31-28 and outplayed the Knights by an expected goal rate of 2.84-2.65, but that clearly did not matter. In Game 3 with their backs against the wall at home, the Panthers found a way to win in desperation as Matthew Tkachuk scored the clutch game-tying goal with just 2:13 left in regulation to force overtime. After killing off a penalty to start overtime, Carter Verhaeghe ended the game 4:27 into OT. Bobrovsky, after getting pulled in Game 2, played great at home, making key saves to keep Florida in the game. The Golden Knights outshot the Panthers 27-23 and Vegas outplayed Florida by an expected goal rate of 3.71-2.9. The Golden Knights are the better team in this series and have played better offensively and defensively than the Panthers in these playoffs. They’ve dominated their victories in both of the first two games of this series to give them the 2-0 lead and although the Panthers came back to win Game 3 at home, Vegas was the better team once again and Florida needed everything to go right with a good bit of luck to get the overtime win. I expect the Golden Knights to win the Cup in five games and think Thursday night was their last loss of the season. The Knights have been resilient in bouncing back from losses these playoffs and are the better team. Vegas should take the 3-1 series lead on the road tonight to get a game away from winning the Stanley Cup, likely at home in Game 5. I love the value on the Golden Knights tonight and I’m stacking up on them. I’m loading up. I’ll take the Knights ML for 2 units, them in regulation for a unit, and half a unit on the alternate -1.5 puck line. I’ll also take their team total over 2.5 for a unit. Going into this series, I thought this series would trend under, but that script has absolutely flipped. With the amount of shots and really good scoring chances in Game 1, and the over hitting in that even with the fantastic play of Adin Hill on the Vegas side of things, and Game 2 flying over with the Golden Knights going over the total by themselves and the over hitting easily, I expect the trend of overs in this series continuing. In Game 3, the sole game that stayed under in this series, both Hill and Bobrovsky were fantastic, making timely saves on a lot of good scoring opportunities. Although I don’t expect to see Bobrovsky giving up five goals or getting pulled again, I like the over to hit easily tonight, especially if Vegas is up and the Panthers have to play desperately to try to stay in the series. I’ll take the alternate over 5.5 for half a unit.
Game Bets
2u Golden Knights ML (-107)
1u Golden Knights in regulation (+150)
.5u Golden Knights -1.5 (+220)
1u Golden Knights TT over 2.5 (-162)
.5u Panthers/Golden Knights over 5.5 (-127)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
Record: 811-681-36 (-94.86 units)
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A Town's Zone 