The Stanley Cup’s in the building for Game 5 in Vegas tonight of the Finals! I crushed Game 4, going 3-2 to win 3.36 units. Let’s crush it again in what’s hopefully the final game of the season tonight!
Game 5: Golden Knights vs. Panthers (8:00)
The Vegas Golden Knights are one win away from winning their first Stanley Cup in their short franchise history, coming into tonight’s Game 5 with a 3-1 series lead over the Panthers, bouncing back from their Game 3 overtime loss in Florida with a 3-2 win in Game 4 on the road. The Golden Knights took a 1-0 series lead at home in Game 1 in a good game, with a hot three-goal unanswered third period to win 5-2 in a game that was tied 2-2 after 40 minutes. It was anyone’s game at that point and very evenly matched with Adin Hill making the save of the year when the game was tied 1-1 early in the second period in reminiscent fashion to Holtby’s save against the Golden Knights in the 2016 Cup Finals that seemed to change the game. Vegas took control in the third period, with their defense dominating. They scored three goals unanswered to win 5-2, taking the 1-0 series lead at home. The Panthers outshot the Golden Knights 35-34 in the loss but got beat by an expected goal rate of 4.79-2.59. Vegas dominated Game 2 at home even more, with a huge 7-2 victory that had to be deflating to the Eastern Conference Champs. They started the game with a 4-0 lead just 7:10 into the second period and rode that to the easy win. The Knights chased Bobrovsky, the Conn Smythe favorite going into the Finals out of the net in 24 minutes, replaced by Adin Hill. The Panthers outshot Vegas 31-28 and outplayed the Knights by an expected goal rate of 2.84-2.65, but that clearly did not matter. In Game 3 with their backs against the wall at home, the Panthers found a way to win in desperation as Matthew Tkachuk scored the clutch game-tying goal with just 2:13 left in regulation to force overtime. After killing off a penalty to start overtime, Carter Verhaeghe ended the game 4:27 into OT. Bobrovsky, after getting pulled in Game 2, played great at home, making key saves to keep Florida in the game. The Golden Knights outshot the Panthers 27-23 and Vegas outplayed Florida by an expected goal rate of 3.71-2.9. Vegas came out hot in Game 4 on Saturday night, getting out to a 3-0 lead a little over halfway through the game and although the Panthers made it a sweat late in the game, the Knights went on to take their commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a 3-2 win. The Golden Knights outplayed Florida by an expected goal rate of 3.7-2.49 with both teams generating 31 shots on goal. Vegas has been the far better team in this series. I expect the Golden Knights to end this series and lift Lord Stanley tonight. They’ve been the better team in every game of this series and I don’t see them not finishing off the Cats at home in the fortress. Especially with Matthew Tkachuk injured, this series is over. I have my +1200 future on the Golden Knights to win the cup that’ll win me 24 units when they end it. I’m going to double down on the Knights for 2 units in regulation, and since I expect Vegas to be hot early and have a lead to cruise to the win, I’ll also throw in a unit on the puck line and a unit on the team total over 3. Elimination games always go over with the net empty early, so I’m jumping on the over 5.5 as well for 1.5 units. Plus the games in this series should have all hit the over anyway. The last thing for tonight, the Conn Smythe. I expect the Knights to win the Stanley Cup tonight. I think the original misfit, Jonathan Marchessault, who’s been scoring goals like crazy all playoffs, especially in this series, wins it. The line on that though at an astonishing -670 i think is insane. Although I still think the original misfit deservingly gets it tonight, he isn’t worth that (really wish I hammered him at -118 before Game 4). Jack Eichel (23 points, 6 goals, 17 assists), the best player on this team, only has one less point than Marchessault (24 points (13 goals, 11 assists) and I think if he has a huge game tonight could steal it away as the American face of the NHL. There’s tremendous value on him at +2000, so even though it might be throwing money away, I’ll take a small half unit stab on Eichel to win the Conn Smythe.
LET’S GO KNIGHTS!!!
Game Bets
2u Golden Knights in regulation (-104)
1u Golden Knights -1.5 (+143)
1u Golden Knights TT over 3 (-155)
1.5u Golden Knights/Panthers over 5.5 (-127)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1200)
.5u Sergei Bobrovsky – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+4000)
.5u Jack Eichel – Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+2000)
Record: 814-683-36 (-91.5 units)
PS: If this is HOPEFULLY my last NHL gambling blog of the season, I’d like to thank everyone (I know there’s some of you out there) that read these things every day. I love doing them and I know this year was tough. This was my first losing season in the years since I started this blog, even after I end up winning hopefully around $1500 tonight with the Knights, my second favorite team, lifting Lord Stanley. I truly appreciate every single person that stuck around, read these blogs every day and watched the IG Reels and TikTok, sticking with the every day ups and downs to gambling on the greatest sports league in the world. As always, its been fun. Next year is going to be even better, and I’ll be back with a vengeance, once again breaking down every single game and finding ways to win as my Sabres make their return to the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
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A Town's Zone 