This week, all of the best golfers in the world head to LA Country Club for the third major of the year, the US Open.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7530 yards, five Par 3s and three Par 5s, all three of the Par 5s should be reachable by most of the field as long as they place themselves in the right spots off the tee on the fairway for their approach shots, three of the Par 3s are very long ranging from 230-290 yards with the other two being pretty short, the Par 4s vary drastically in length, very wide Bermuda fairways with bunkers in the landing zones, the fairways are drastically sloped and undulated and very fast so golfers will have to hit specific spots on the fairways (mostly on the left side) with specific shaping of their shots to avoid the ball running off a ton to the rough and to give good angles on approach shots, barrancas with native areas of sand and vegetation around the fairways, array of different bentgrass green sizes with tons of slope and undulation that play very fast, greens surrounded by extremely thick rough and large bunkers, shaved runoff areas on the front of most greens and behind many greens
Tournament Notes
- The third major of the year
- This course has never hosted a major
- The course maps is very unique and maps out quite differently than other courses including others in the California area
- Only Top 60 and ties make the cut, not the usual Top 65
- This course previously hosted the 2017 Walker Cup, the best amateur “Ryder Cup” match play style competition and 2013 Pac-12 Championship, both of which had some players in the field this week
- Each of the last eleven US Open winners had already posted at least a T25 in the US Open
- Nine of the last eleven US Open winners had a T10 in at least one of the last two majors prior to their win
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Good Drives Gained
Field
156 golfers – major with all of the best players in the world on both the PGA Tour and LIV Golf in the field
Defending Champion (The Country Club): Matt Fitzpatrick
Runner Up Last Year (The Country Club): Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris
One and Done: Cam Smith
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Rahm, Koepka, Hovland, DJ, Cam Smith
Players
Brooks Koepka: 10800: +1500 – The best major golfer of this generation since Tiger, pretty much an auto-bet at majors, reigning PGA Champion and 2nd in The Masters after melting down on Sunday, T27,T24,1,T11,3,T5,T12 finishes on LIV this season, has won this event twice both while he went in with lousy form, two time US Open winner in 2017 and 2018 with 55,4,2,1,1,13,18,4,MC finishes, stats are flawed since besides the PGA Championship none of these stats line up with his LIV events and are mainly derived from years ago when he was on the PGA Tour, 53rd in Approach, 60th in SG: OTT, 74th in Good Drives, 105th in Fairways Gained, 17th in Driving Distance, 106th in Par 3 Scoring, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 5 Scoring, 69th in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 70th in Opportunities Gained, 49th in Bogey Avoidance, Blake. of. the. Year.
Viktor Hovland: 10000: +1800 – In fantastic form right now and plays great in majors, 2nd at the PGA and 7th at The Masters this year, coming off a win (cashing my ticket) at the Memorial with 1,16,2,43,59,7,3,10,20,42,13,18,10,21,5 finishes in his last 15 events, MC,13,12 finishes in the US Open, 9th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 20th in Good Drives, 29th in Fairways Gained, 31st in Driving Distance, 13th in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 58th in Par 5 Scoring, 100th in SG: ARG, 53rd in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Bogey Avoidance
Xander Schauffele: 9600: +1900 – Plays great in majors and I think he can crack through and finally get a win, 10th at the Masters and 18th at the PGA, fantastic at US Opens with 14,7,5,3,6,5 finishes, 24,18,2,4,10,19,39,33,10,13,3,9,4,3 finishes in his last 14 events, 5th in Approach, 36th in SG: OTT, 9th in Good Drives, 53rd in Fairways Gained, 51st in Driving Distance, 34th in Par 3 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 36th in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Bogey Avoidance
Collin Morikawa: 9300: +3000 – I don’t care about the back spasms, I’m pretty sure he’s fine after having to withdraw when he was in contention at the Memorial, 29,26,MC,31,10,13,MC,6,MC,3,2,15 finishes in his twelve events prior to the Memorial, former two time major champion, 5,4,MC,35 finishes at the US Open, 3rd in Approach, 31st in SG: OTT, 2nd in Good Drives, 8th in Fairways Gained, 96th in Driving Distance, 16th in Par 3 Scoring, 45th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 5 Scoring, 59th in SG: ARG, 103rd in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 48th in Bogey Avoidance
Tony Finau: 8800: +4000 – I can’t believe he’s +4000 and think there’s fantastic value here, has the talent to win a major, MC,MC,8,MC,5,MC,14 finishes at the US Open, MC,72,23,1,31,26,19,24,20,14,9,16,7,1 finishes in his last 14 events, 7th in Approach, 35th in SG: OTT, 63rd in Good Drives, 48th in Fairways Gained, 43rd in Driving Distance, 70th in Par 3 Scoring, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 18th in SG: ARG, 84th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 24th in Bogey Avoidance
Rickie Fowler: 7500: +5500 – Playing his best golf in years, has been great T2G this season, 49,43,20,5,MC,MC,2,10,41,MC,60 finishes at US Opens, 9,6,MC,14,15,10,13,31,20,10,11 finishes in his last eleven events, 8th in Approach, 82nd in SG: OTT, 53rd in Good Drives, 82nd in Fairways Gained, 36th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 24th in Par 5 Scoring, 7th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 20th in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Bogey Avoidance, worth a shot at the price and I think he’s a great DFS play at 7500
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives (10%)
Fairways Gained (5%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- 6/6 percentage is much lower than usual since only the T60 make the cut
- With how difficult US Opens map out, placement points are far more valuable this week than they are on a typical week that the field is racking up points on birdies
- As with the PGA Championship and The Masters, any LIV Golf guys that I play this week will be much more based off feel and current form rather than stats since LIV events do not have strokes gained data
- I really considered Scottie Scheffler this week and it wouldn’t shock me if he won. If he wasn’t so awful putting lately I would even probably bet him at the pathetic +650 price, but instead I’m fading him.
- Also considered DJ and Cam Smith to add from the LIV guys, but I’m just rolling with Brooks here
- Good Drives gained is a combined stat of Fairways Gained and GIR, with the player either hitting the fairway off the tee OR missing the fairway but still hitting the green or fringe in regulation
Bets
Outrights
1u Brooks Koepka (+1500)
.6u Viktor Hovland (+1800)
.6u Xander Schauffele (+1900)
.4u Collin Morikawa (+3000)
.3u Tony Finau (+4000)
.2u Rickie Fowler (+5500)
Live Outrights
.3u Dustin Johnson (+4000)
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