I pretty much broke even last week with the PLL in Charlotte, going 1-1 to lose 0.14 units as the Waterdogs blew a 6-0 lead. This week the league heads to Columbus, Ohio for four good games this weekend.
Waterdogs vs. Atlas (6/16 6:00)
Both of these teams come into Game 3 with 1-1 records and neither have really impressed so far this year. Last week the Waterdogs had a 6-0 first quarter lead over the Redwoods and completely melted down to end up losing 10-9 to the Redwoods. The high powered offense of the Dogs last year have struggled a bit this season through two games, averaging just 8.5 scores per game on an average of 42 shots per game. They’ve been much improved defensively though, allowing an average of just 8.5 scores per game as well. The Atlas are coming off a huge win last week after losing on opening weekend, bouncing back with a 12-11 win over the Whipsnakes as Chris Gray scored the game-winner with just 20 seconds left in regulation. This season the Atlas have averaged 12 scores per game on an average of 45 shots per game, and they’ve allowed an average of 12 scores per game. Both of last season’s games between these teams were pretty high scoring, with the Waterdogs winning both of them, winning 16-15 in Week 9 and then knocking off the Atlas 19-14 in the first week of the playoffs. I’d slightly lean the Atlas get their revenge with a win tonight, but not enough to bet it. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Chrome vs. Cannons (6/16 8:30)
Neither of these teams have been great so far through two games this season. The Chrome are 1-1, coming off a lousy 12-7 loss to the Archers (easy winner for me), struggling on both ends of the field. Through two games this season, they’ve averaged just 9.5 scores per game on an average of 39.5 shots per game. The Chrome have allowed an average of 11.5 scores per game. The Cannons are 0-2, coming off a 14-13 overtime loss last week to the Chaos. Going into the season, coming off being the sole team to miss the playoffs last year, I expected this team to be horrible and even worse without Lyle Thompson playing this year. Despite being 0-2, I am a bit surprised by how well they’ve hung in there in these games and their offense has impressed me. Even without Lyle, the Cannons have averaged 13 scores per game on an average of 42 shots per game. Their defense, which killed them last year, is just as horrible, if not worse than it was a season ago, allowing an average of 15 scores per game, easily the most in the league. The Chrome won both games between these teams last season, winning 12-11 in Week 4 and then 11-9 in Week 10. I like the Chrome to win this one pretty easily and will take them on the goal line for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Archers vs. Chaos (6/17 12:00)
This should be a fun game to kick off the early start on Saturday. The Archers have looked phenomenal through the first two games of the season, a perfect 2-0, winning by multiple goals in both previous matchups, beating the Cannons 16-13 on Opening Weekend and then crushing the Chrome 12-7 last week in Charlotte. This season they’ve averaged 14 scores per game on an average of 49 shots per game. They’ve allowed just 10 scores per game. The Chaos are 1-1, coming off a big 14-13 overtime win last week over the Cannons on Josh Byrne’s game winner, fresh off winning the NLL Championship for the Bandits along with most of the rest of the Chaos offense. Through two games, although the stats there are flawed off opening weekend when they were without their whole offense who were out for the NLL, they’ve averaged 10.5 scores per game on an average of 36 shots per game and have allowed an average of 10.5 scores per game as well. These teams met three times last year with the Archers winning both regular season games, winning 17-12 in Week 2 and then 11-8 in Week 10. The Chaos got the last laugh though, winning 9-7 in the semifinals. I expect a huge win for the Archers and will take them for a unit. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Redwoods vs. Whipsnakes (6/17 7:00)
Going into the season I didn’t expect to see these teams having their records through two weeks of the year. The Whipsnakes, who led the regular season last year with an 11-1 record already have more losses than they had last year, coming into today’s game with an 0-2 record after a 12-11 loss to the Atlas in the final 20 seconds of regulation. They’ve scored an average of 11 scores per game on an average of 43 shots per game. Defensively the Whips have allowed an average of 12 scores per game. The Redwoods are a perfect 2-0 after coming back from a 6-0 deficit in the first quarter to the Waterdogs last week to win 10-9. The Woods have averaged 11.5 scores per game on an average of 42 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 10.5 scores per game. In their Week 4 matchup last year, these teams kept it close with the Whipsnakes winning 12-11. Despite the records and the stats in this matchup lining up to the Redwoods, the Whipsnakes I think are such a better team and I don’t see them going 0-3. I’d lean they win, but I can’t pass up on the value of the Woods +1.5 at only -139, which I’ll take for half a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Bets
.5u Atlas/Waterdogs over 24.5 (-106)
.5u Chrome -1.5 (-113)
1u Archers ML (-152)
.5u Redwoods +1.5 (-139)
Record: 2-4 (-0.84 units)
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