After the US Open last week, this week the PGA Tour heads to Hartford, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship, an elevated event at TPC River Highlands.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 6852 yards, second shortest course on tour (behind Pebble Beach), Pete Dye designed course, eight of the Par 4s are between 400-450 yards, both Par 5s are reachable, guys could club down and hit their spots where they want, lot of birdie opportunities here, doesn’t favor any particular ball flight, wide and easy fairways to hit here (~69% vs. ~62% tour average), trees in play if you miss the fairways, the fairways get narrower the farther from the tee you go and around the landing area at about 300 yards, first cut of rough isn’t very penal but gets tougher with bigger misses, top ten hardest courses on tour to scramble from the rough, soft and receptive predominately POA greens with a mix of bentgrass, greens are smaller but easier than average to hit (~67% vs. ~65% tour average), fast greens have a bit of slope and not much undulation, lot of the greens are elevated, pins could be located in tough spots, greens are guarded by collection areas, water, thick rough and bunkers, water in play in about 1/3 of holes but isn’t a big factor
Tournament Notes
- 4 of the last 13 winners got their first career win here
- 4 of the last 10 winners were coming into the week off a missed cut in their previous event
- 7 of the last 9 winners have posted at least a T30 here before winning
- Since 2001, only 2 golfers (Phil in 2001, Spieth in 2017) won on their first time here
- SG: OTT is much more important here than ATG, but both are outweighed by approach, as usual
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.8%)
Corollary Courses
- Pete Dye tracks. Slightly different than other Pete Dye tracks but still has a lot of similar elements
- Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – lot of crossover success
- Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship) – lot of crossover success
Field
156 golfers – designated event with the best field this event has ever had (the field was loaded coming out of the covid break as well) with all eligible golfers besides Spieth, Hatton, Burns, and Rose
Defending Champion: Xander Schauffele (-19)
Runner Up Last Year: J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala (-17)
One and Done: Rickie Fowler
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Rahm, Schauffele, Hovland, Cantlay, Fleetwood, Rickie
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 11300: +1080 – Best ballstriking in the world and just can’t putt but his T2G game is absolutely elite and its shocking how far ahead of every other golfer in the world his ballstriking is, if he could marginally putt he would be on the Tiger in the early 2000s level, 13,47,MC finishes here, 3,3,3,2,5,11,10,1,4,12,1,11,7,9,3,45,2,3 finishes in his last 18 events with two wins this season, 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 30th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in SG: ARG, 116th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, shockingly this is the first time I’m betting him this year but I think the +950 boosted up on DraftKings Sportsbook is worth it and used a free bet on my account to bump it to +1080
Collin Morikawa: 9500: +2500 – MC and 36 finishes his two times here, 14 finish last week at the US Open after having to withdraw when he was in contention at the Memorial with back spasms with 14,MC,29,26,MC,31,10,13,MC,6,MC,3,2,15 finishes in his 14 events, 3rd in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 17th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 37th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 84th in SG: ARG, 94th in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Birdie+ Gained
Tommy Fleetwood: 9300: +3500 – He has to finally win in the US eventually, 46 and 13 finishes his two times here, finished 5th at the US Open last year with 5,2,MC,1,5,33,3,26,61,20,MC,4,53,4,4 in his last 16 events, 14th in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 38th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 11th in SG: ARG, 35th in Putting, 62nd in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained
Rickie Fowler: 9100: +4500 – Lead the first three rounds of the US Open last week after setting a record for the lowest round in US Open history with his -8 on Thursday and then faltered on Sunday, playing his best golf in years consistently this season, MC,MC,13,13,MC finishes here, 5,9,6,MC,14,15,10,13,31,20,10,11 finishes in his last twelve events, 8th in Approach, 54th in SG: OTT, 27th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 18th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 7th in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained
Hideki Matsuyama: 8600: +4500 – I like his odds this week for how he pops in my model, first time playing this event, 32,16,29,23,16,15,5,MC,MC,29,9 finishes in his last eleven events, 15th in Approach, 53rd in SG: OTT, 8th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 33rd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 25th in Par 5 Scoring, 8th in SG: ARG, 89th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 44th in Birdie+ Gained
Si Woo Kim: 8000: +5000 – Plays fantastic on Pete Dye courses and has already won this season, has been much more consistent this year, MC,MC,11,MC,26,25 finishes here, 39,4,29,MC,2,43,MC,29,39,27,39,MC,23,25,22,1 finishes in his last 16 events, 25th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 30th in Par 4 Scoring, 50th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 54th in Par 5 Scoring, 49th in SG: ARG, 99th in Putting, 31st in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- There’s a slight advantage on Showdown slates for birdie streaks if golfers start on the back nine due to the wraparound
Bets
Outrights
1u Scottie Scheffler (+1080)
.4u Collin Morikawa (+2500)
.3u Tommy Fleetwood (+3500)
.3u Rickie Fowler (+4500)
.3u Hideki Matsuyama (+4500)
.2u Si Woo Kim (+5000)
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