This week the PGA Tour goes to one of the easier courses on tour, Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic in it’s new spot on the schedule.
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7370 yards, flattest course on tour so this should play shorter than the yardage of the course, 7 of the Par 4s range from 395-455 yards (4 of the Par 4s under 400 yards, 4 of the Par 4s over 450 yards), 2 of the Par 3s over 200 yards, 2 of the Par 5s are reachable by most of the field with another one reachable by some, Donald Ross designed course, birdiefest, tree lined fairways, fairway bunkers in the landing zones but not much trouble, undulating fairways and greens, less than driver on some holes but most guys still bomb it and average drives here were 13 yards longer than average, one of the longest average driving distance on tour (~296 yards vs. 283 yards tour average) since there is a ton of roll after it gets burned out with 50% of drives here going longer than 300 yards, mainly straight holes (not many doglegs on Donald Ross designs), slightly below average fairway widths, easier to hit fairways than tour average (65% vs. 62% tour average), 3.5-4 inch rough which hasn’t really been penal at all, missing wildly off the tee could lead to approach shots over trees from nice lies on other fairways and should be easy for these guys to hit in most spots, barely less than average sized greens, easy to hit greens (72% GIR vs. tour average 66%), bunkers surrounding the greens, greens slope heavily from back to front with heavy undulation, Bluegrass greens (mix of mostly POA with around 20% bentgrass), some of the most birdies and eagles here of any courses on tour
Tournament Notes
- 2019 was the first year that this tournament was held, replacing the Quicken Loans National and was the first PGA event at Detroit Golf Club
- This event is a month earlier than it used to be with the schedule realignment for this year
- Everyone in the T20 in 2019 here gained strokes putting. Putting matters here but its the one stat thats so variable that its not worth even looking at on a week to week basis. This is pretty much a putting contest since its a very easy course
- In 2020, of the top 16 guys in SG: OTT they all made the cut besides Bubba and the rest of them besides Kevin Chappell (T62) finished in the T30
- Even with very high winds in 2021, the winning score was still -18 and more than half the golfers that made the cut still finished -10 or better
- The gap here between approach and driving is
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (21.4%), 125-150 yards (18.7%), 150-175 yards. (18.2%)
Corollary Courses
East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – both similar Donald Ross design courses
Field
156 golfers – a bit stronger of a field than this event has had the last several years
Defending Champion: Tony Finau (-26)
Runner Up Last Year: Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Penrith, Cameron Young (-21)
One and Done: Justin Thomas
One and Done Considerations: Rickie, Hideki, Finau, Homa, JT, Keegan
Players
Rickie Fowler: 10400: +1700 – I’m going to keep riding Rickie till he wins and I really think it happens this week, playing his best golf in years consistently this season, has T10s in both of his non-major/non-elevated events starts this season, MC,32,12,46 finishes here, 13,5,9,6,MC,14,15,10,13,31,20,10,11 finishes in his last 13 events, 8th in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 16th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 23rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 73rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 4th in Par 3 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 32nd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 7th in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, boosted up on DK Sportsbook I think he’s worth a full unit bet for me even though with these odds I’d usually bet less than that
Justin Thomas: 10000: +2000 – Seemed to get out of his slump last week at the Travelers after playing pretty poorly with 9,MC,MC,65,14,25,MC,10,60,21,20,4,25,25 finishes in his last 14 events, has never played this event, third in SG:Total on easy courses, 10th in SG on Donald Ross courses, 16th in Approach, 56th in SG: OTT, 30th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 27th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 90th in Proximity 200+ yards, 35th in Par 3 Scoring, 46th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 24th in Par 5 Scoring, 12th in SG: ARG, 99th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Birdie+ Gained, Fanduel Sportsbook has a prop on him to win at +1600 without Rickie, Hideki, Finau, and Morikawa, giving up the extra +400 I think makes that bet the better move to give me the ability to possibly cash two outrights in the same week
Hideki Matsuyama: 9600: +1800 – Pops as second in my model this week, plays fantastic at Donald Ross courses with eleven T15s in his 16 appearances since 2005 (this could be a bit skewed with the smaller field at East Lake), 4th in SG: Total on easy courses, 21 and 13 finishes here, 13,32,16,29,23,16,15,5,MC,MC,29,9 finishes in his last twelve events, 2nd in Approach, 33rd in SG: OTT, 14th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 22nd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 9th in Proximity 200+ yards, 25th in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 13th in Par 5 Scoring, 13th in SG: ARG, 91st in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdie+ Gained
Keegan Bradley: 9200: +3000 – Going back to him coming off his win at Travelers last week with 1,MC,30,28,35,48,23,MC,10,MC,20,2 finishes in his last twelve events, 44,14,45 finishes here, 45th in Approach, 31st in SG: OTT, 2nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 89th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 17th in Proximity 200+ yards, 89th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 21st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 27th in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained
Austin Eckroat: 8000: +5500 – Pops in my model this week and the course maps out great for him, MC here in his only appearance in 2021, 24,10,30,16,2,64,49,MC,5 finishes in his last nine events, 52nd in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 102nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 53rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 25th in Proximity 200+ yards, 58th in Par 3 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 26th in Par 5 Scoring, 37th in SG: ARG, 35th in Putting, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Birdie+ Gained
Chez Reavie: 7200: +15000 – Usually good on easy courses, MC both of his times here in 2021 and 2019, 4,25,58,40,40,MC,49,11,6 finishes in his last nine events, 10th in Approach, 96th in SG: OTT, 34th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 37th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 57th in Par 5 Scoring, 117th in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 23rd in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (15%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
1u Rickie Fowler (+1700)
0.6u Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
0.4u Keegan Bradley (+3000)
0.2u Austin Eckroat (+5500)
0.1u Chez Reavie (+15000)
Specials
Outright winner without Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, and Collin Morikawa:
.7u Justin Thomas (+1600)
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