I got my biggest win of the year last week, cashing my sixth outright of the season with Rickie Fowler’s win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. This week the PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run with the worst field of the year for the John Deere Classic.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7289 yards, bentgrass, 5 Par 4s between 400-450 yards, top ten easiest course on tour on a yearly basis, the 3 Par 5s should be reachable in two by most of the field along with the driveable Par 4 14th, wide tree lined fairways guarded by large bunkers in the landing zones, rough is fairly penal but doesn’t come in play that often since driving accuracy is ~71% (tour average ~62%), fairways usually play firm with a good amount of roll with lot of uneven lies and undulations in the fairway, three water hazards in play on three holes, large greens guarded by bunkers and collection areas, greens are very easy to hit and very receptive with ~70% GIR (tour average ~66%) and slow with a bit of undulation and slope, 76 bunkers on the course that were all completely rebuilt and slightly changed after the 2021 event, this place is a birdiefest
Tournament Notes
- There have been 23 first time winners here since 1971, the most of any PGA Tour event
- Since 2008, 7 of the 14 winners were in the T50 of the OWGR (6 of the 13 were in the T20) and two of the ones outside of that were Spieth and Bryson when they won, who went on to become superstars. This stat doesn’t mean much though this week with how weak the field is though
- In 2018, every golfer that finished in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yards and all besides Varner gained from 175-200 yards. In 2019, all but Frittelli (who was putting lights out on the way to his win) and Chris Stroud, everyone in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yards.
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Proximity 150-175 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (20.4%), 125-150 yards (20%), 150-175 yards (19%)
Corollary Courses
Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions) – Lots of winners of this had success at Kapalua, but barely any are in the field this week
Field
161 golfers – easily the weakest strength field of the year
Defending Champion: J.T. Poston (-21)
Runner Up Last Year: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Emiliano Grillo (-18)
One and Done: Chez Reavie
One and Done Considerations: Chez Reavie, Eric Cole, Russell Henley
Players
Russell Henley: 10400: +1614 – One of the best players in the field, 11,27,27 finishes here, 19,14,16,16,MC,19,4,19,53,MC,MC,32,30,MC,1 finishes in his last 15 events, 6th in Approach, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 2nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 36th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 12th in Proximity 200+ yards, 18th in SG: ARG, 66th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained, 38th in Birdie+ Gained
Eric Cole: 9700: +3500 – Finally took a week off not having played the Rocket Mortgage last week, 24,39,6,24,MC,15,23,MC,5,39,MC,27,MC,2,15 finishes in his last 15 events, MC in his only time here last year, 13th in Approach, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 14th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 74th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 79th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 7th in SG: ARG, 12th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Adam Schenk: 9500: +3300 – Has been very close to winning twice this season including losing in a playoff to Grillo at the Charles Schwab and hasn’t been able to get it done, 4,6,MC finishes his three times here, 7,MC,MC,7,2,MC,MC,MC,21,MC,2 finishes in his last eleven events, 9th in Approach, 14th in Par 4 scoring, 16th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 62nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 8th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 38th in Proximity 200+ yards, 58th in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 80th in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdie+ Gained
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 8500: +5500 – Finished 2nd here last year his first time here, 56,MC,38,21,MC,23,19,28,13,MC,42,58,MC,11 finishes in his last 14 events, 5th in Approach, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 45th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 7th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 29th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 19th in Proximity 200+ yards, 88th in SG: ARG, 16th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained, 85th in Birdie+ Gained
Nick Taylor: 8200: +4500 – First in my model this week, has already won this season just a few weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open, MC,28,33,34,MC,MC,MC finishes here, MC,1,MC,MC,41,15,10,MC,MC,33,2,20,MC,7 finishes in his last 14 events, 17th in Approach, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 16th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 33rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 16th in Proximity 200+ yards, 36th in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained
Chez Reavie: 7700: +6000 – Second in my model, lead the field in approach last week at the Rocket Mortgage by over a stroke better than Rickie (8.7 SG), MC,18,MC,39,65,15,68,5,MC,41 finishes here, 29,4,25,58,40,40,MC,49,11,6 finishes in his last ten events, 4th in Approach, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 13th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 46th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 15th in Proximity 200+ yards, 104th in SG: ARG, 5th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained
Michael Kim: 7600: +8000 – Former winner here with a dominant performance in 2018 winning by eight strokes, MC,MC,1,71,47 finishes here, 38,MC,43,6,MC,7,30,46,26,45,5,MC,11 finishes in his last 13 events, 30th in Approach, 26th in Par 4 scoring, 25th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 24th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 17th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 21st in Proximity 200+ yards, 63rd in SG: ARG, 20th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 23rd in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Ownership percentage could play more of a factor due to the ridiculously weak field
- This could be a good week to catch great numbers live, especially on Thursday and Friday
Bets
Outrights
.7u Russell Henley (+1614)
.4u Adam Schenk (+3300)
.3u Eric Cole (+3500)
.3u Nick Taylor (+4500)
.2u Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5500)
.2u Chez Reavie (+6000)
.2u Michael Kim (+8000)
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