The PGA Tour heads overseas this week to the Renaissance Club for the Genesis Scottish Open, a co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour with a loaded field.
Course Breakdown
Par 70 (used to be a Par 71), 7237 yards, the scoring in this event is highly dependent on weather with wind being the biggest defense on the course with the winning scores ranging from -7 to -22, links style course, different setup than a typical Par 70 course with ten Par 4s (seven ranging from 448-505 yards), five Par 3s and three Par 5s, only four holes play alongside the ocean but the course has all of the other elements of a links course, average to above average sized rolling fairways with a good amount of undulation and mounds, fairways usually play firm and fast, deep fairway pot bunkers that are pretty hard to get out of, first cut of rough isn’t too penal if you just miss the fairway but gets much thicker as you go farther out, a few trees and some high fescue in areas if you miss wildly off the tee, pretty slow fescue greens that can see big inconsistencies in speed from hole to hole, large massively undulating upside bowl shaped greens that should play firm but slow, lots of pot bunkers guarding greens and large runoff areas
Tournament Notes
- This is a co-sanctioned event by the DP World Tour and PGA Tour, the second year this has been the case
- This will be the fifth year this course has hosted this event for the DP World Tour
- Final event to qualify for The Open
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, SG: ARG
Field
149 golfers – solid top end of the field along with the best DP World Tour players
Defending Champion: Xander Schauffele (-7)
Runner Up Last Year: Kurt Kitayama (-6)
One and Done: Wyndham Clark
One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, Rory, Cantlay, Hatton, Clark, Fleetwood
Players
Patrick Cantlay: 10200: +1400 – Hasn’t won yet this season and I feel like it could happen this week, 2nd in my model this week and really pops behind Scheffler who is typically always first in my model any week he plays, T4 finish here last year, 4,14,30,9,21,3,14,19,4,3 finishes in his last ten events, 12th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 2nd in Good Drives, 50th in Sand Saves, 53rd in Par 3 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 37th in SG: ARG, 20th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 9th in Bogie Avoidance
Viktor Hovland: 9700: +1800 – Just won a month ago in a loaded field at the Memorial, MC here last year, 29,19,1,16,2,43,59,7,3,10 finishes in his last ten events and he hasn’t missed a cut since this event last year, 10th in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 5th in Good Drives, 24th in Sand Saves, 14th in Par 3 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 37th in Par 5 Scoring, 77th in SG: ARG, 48th in Putting, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained, 10th in Bogie Avoidance
Tyrrell Hatton: 9600: +2200 – Has been fantastic all season, former DP World Tour player, T24,T18,T14 finishes his three times here, 27,3,12,15,5,3,19,34,MC,2,4,40,6 finishes in his last 13 events, 19th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 24th in Good Drives, 35th in Sand Saves, 24th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 48th in Par 5 Scoring, 31st in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 24th in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogie Avoidance
Tommy Fleetwood: 9400: +2200 – Playing the best golf of his career this season, former DP World Tour player, has won overseas on the DP World Tour in the past, lost here twice in a playoff in 2021 and 2020 with T4,T2,2 finishes in his three times here, MC,5,2,MC,18,5,15,33,3,27 finishes in his last ten events, 18th in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 18th in Good Drives, 4th in Sand Saves, 18th in Par 3 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 66th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 9th in SG: ARG, 28th in Putting, 64th in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogie Avoidance
Wyndham Clark: 9000: +5500 – Really pops in my model (3rd) this week, can obviously win in a loaded field as the reigning US Open champion which was his second win of the year after winning the Wells Fargo, T16 finish here last year, 29,1,12,MC,1,24,29,6,5 finishes in his last nine events, 15th in Approach, 46th in SG: OTT, 33rd in Good Drives, 9th in Sand Saves, 4th in Par 3 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 15th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Slightly smaller card for me this week since I’m on more favorites than I am on a typical week
- Wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if Scheffler or Rory win this week, but I’m fading both of them at their around +700 prices
Bets
Outrights
.8u Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
.6u Viktor Hovland (+1800)
.5u Tyrrell Hatton (+2200)
.5u Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
.2u Wyndham Clark (+5500)
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