Last week I made a small profit when the PLL was in Minnesota, going 2-2 to win 0.16 units, cashing my bigger bets on each game. This week we head to Fairfield, CT for Week 5. Let’s make it two winning weeks in a row!
Whipsnakes vs. Waterdogs (7/14 6:00)
The defending champion Waterdogs are rolling this season. They’re 3-1 this year, coming off a 10-7 win over the Chrome last week. They’ve averaged 11.5 scores per game this year and have allowed an average of 10.5 scores per game, a big improvement defensively. The Whipsnakes are off to the worst start in their franchise’s history this year, at just 1-3 on the season after losing 15-12 last week to the Archers. Even missing a bunch of their offensive players this season, the Whips offense has actually been pretty good, averaging 13 scores per game, but they’ve struggled a bit defensively, allowing an average of 12.5 scores per game. These teams played three times last year, with each game determined by a goal. In the regular season, the Whipsnakes won the first matchup 12-11 in Week 2 and the Waterdogs answered back with an 11-10 win in Week 5. In the second round playoff matchup after the top seed Whips got a bye for the first week, the Waterdogs knocked them off with an 11-10 win on their way to winning the PLL Championship. I’d expect this to be a close game and would slightly lean the Waterdogs win, but not enough to bet it. Since I think this game ends up being a one goal game and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Whips win, I’ll take the Whipsnakes +1.5 for half a unit. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Archers vs. Redwoods (7/14 8:30)
This should be a fun game. The Archers are rolling, leading the PLL with a 3-1 record and playing solid lacrosse on both ends of the field. They’re coming off a big 15-12 win over the Whipsnakes last week to bounce back after they went into the break off a 15-10 loss to the Chaos. They’ve been great offensively, scoring an average of 13.3 scores per game. The Redwoods are 3-1 as well after a big 13-8 win against the Chaos last week. They’ve averaged 11.8 scores per game. Both of these teams have allowed an average of 11.8 scores per game. These teams played twice last year, with the Archers winning both games. They won 10-9 in a close game in Week 5 and then won easily, 13-8 in Week 12. I like the Archers to win here and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Chrome vs. Cannons (7/15 6:00)
I wouldn’t say this is a great matchup by any means, but it could end up being a pretty fun game to watch. The Cannons, who missed the playoffs last year and lost their best player in Lyle Thompson, who’s taking the season off from the PLL, are shockingly 2-2 on the season. They’re coming off two wins in a row after a huge 19-12 blowout win over the Atlas last week. The Cannons lead the PLL in scoring, averaging an impressive 14.8 scores per game. Defensively they still suck, allowing an average of 13.8 scores per game. The Chrome are just 1-3 after a 10-7 loss last week to the Waterdogs. This team has the worst offense in the PLL, averaging just 9.8 scores per game. They’ve been better defensively though than the Cannons, allowing an average of 11.8 scores per game. These teams just played in Week 3 this season, with the Cannons winning 14-13 in Columbus. Last year they played twice with the Chrome winning both games, winning 12-11 in Week 4, and then 11-9 in Week 10. I’d lean the Cannons win again here but no way am I betting on them. I like the over, even despite the pathetic Chrome offense, and will take the over for half a unit.
Atlas vs. Chaos (7/15 8:30)
I’m pumped for this matchup to close out the weekend. The Chaos are 2-2 after a 13-8 loss last week to the Redwoods. They’ve both scored and allowed an average of 11 scores per game. The Atlas are probably the biggest disappointment of the season so far at just 1-3 after getting blown out 19-12 by the Cannons last week. Their offense has been very good, second in the PLL in scoring, averaging 13.5 scores per game but their defense and goaltending has been god awful, allowing an average of 15.5 scores per game. These teams played just once last year, with the Atlas winning 10-9 in the final week of the regular season. I think the Atlas are the better team and are just underperforming this season, but I’d lean the Chaos win this one. I’m not betting on it though. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet that either, so I’ll just stay off this game completely.
Bets
.5u Whipsnakes +1.5 (-155)
1u Archers ML (-130)
.5u Cannons/Chrome over 24.5 (-105)
Record: 5-9 (-2.96 units)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 