All of the best golfers in the world meet for the final major of the year, The Open Championship, otherwise known as the British Open, this year at Royal Liverpool Golf Club at Hoylake in England.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7383 yards, three of the four Par 3s range from 195-220 with the 17th being a short 136 yard hole, the Par 5 on the front is reachable in two by all (520 yards) and the two on the back are very long ranging from 600-620 yards, seven of the Par 4s range from 445-505 yards, the course is very flat and the wind plays a massive defense to the course, driving the ball straight is huge here, distance doesn’t matter as much as accuracy but gives an advantage, average sized fairways that are mostly flat besides some mounds, there are large pot bunkers in the landing zones that jut out into the fairways to make the landing areas much smaller, around 15 feet off the fairway of playable rough but knee high fescue past that with six holes that have OB stakes which aren’t too far from the fairway (more in play to the right but on both sides), very slow average sized greens are a mix of bentgrass, fescue, and poa and are relatively flat, green side pot bunkers and knee high fescue if golfers miss the greens, the 10th hole here in 2014 was a 532 yard Par 5 and that has now been changed to an over 500 yard Par 4, the 15th hole has a new tee box that makes it 620 vs. 570 as it played in 2014, the Par 3 17th is a completely new hole that was rebuilt since 2014
Tournament Notes
- Final major of the year
- Top 70 and ties make the cut, more than the usual T65 and ties
- This is the only event of the year with no split tees, so everyone starts on 1 and no one starts on 10. This means there’s going to be some long days of golf and stacking tee times for weather splits has to be done so in shorter pockets than in just AM/PM waves
- This is the 13th time this course has hosted The Open Championship, but only the third time since 1967 with Tiger Woods winning in 2006 and Rory McIlroy winning in 2014
- Since Henrik Stenson winning in 2015, every winner of The Open Championship have finished at least T11 in one of their three previous majors
- In the last ten years, only Ernie Els and Shane Lowry were winners outside of the Top 30 in the world in the year that they won
- Since 2011, outside of Ernie Els in 2012 and Cam Smith last year (who had 3 T13s in that span and a win earlier in the year), each Champion Golfer either had a win or three Top 10’s in their six starts prior to winning the Open.
- Since 2008, only Collin Morikawa had fewer than four previous Open appearances before winning the Open
- Since 2008, no one since Paddy Harrington (who won for the second straight year) had finished better than T30 in their previous Open start and 7 of the past 13 winners had missed the cut in their Open before becoming champion, so history the prior year doesn’t matter as much but experience on links style courses is important
- 7 of the last 11 winners were 32 years old or older
- 9 of the last 10 winners had a T20 in one of the other majors that season
- 14 of the last 17 winners finished T9 or better in a previous year
- 2 of the last 9 winners won their last start prior to winning the Open and 4 of the last 9 have a win in one of their two lead in events.
- 5 of the last 9 winners have a win in one of the previous five starts and the only outliers were Zach Johnson in 2015 who had 3 T10s in the 5 starts prior to winning at St. Andrews, Shane Lowry in 2019 who had 3 T10s in his 4 prior starts, Collin Morikawa in 2020 who 2 T5s in his previous two starts and 4 T10s in his prior five starts, and Cam Smith last year who had 3 T13s in his previous six starts and a win at The Players earlier in the season
- 7 of the last 9 winners had a T10 at the Open in the five years prior to their win, Morikawa in 2020 who won in his first Open Championship and Cam Smith last year, who’s best finish was 20th prior are the two outliers
Key Stats
Approach, Good Drives Gained, Par 4 Scoring
Field
156 golfers – major field with the best players in the world including PGA Tour, LIV Golf and DP World Tour
Defending Champion (St. Andrews): Cameron Smith (-20)
Runner Up Last Year (St. Andrews): Cameron Young (-19)
2014 Winner Here: Rory McIlroy (-17)
2014 Runner Up Here: Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia (-15)
One and Done: Dustin Johnson
One and Done Considerations: Rory, Scheffler, Brooks, Cam Smith, Hovland, Fleetwood, Hatton, DJ
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 12500: +1182 – Best golfer in the world, has to just make some putts which should come easier with flat and slow greens, the wind shouldn’t really effect him, 21 and 8 finishes the last two years at The Open, has already won a major winning The Masters last year, has been extremely consistent with 19 straight T12 finishes and T5s in his last straight seven events, has two wins this season (but none since THE PLAYERS), 3,4,3,3,3,2,5,11,10,1,4,12,1,11,7,9,3,45,2,3 finishes in his last 20 events, 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 5th in Good Drives Gained, 41st in Fairways Gained, 118th in Sand Saves (he’s elite on approach and driving the ball, so he should be able to completely avoid the pot bunkers), 10th in Par 3 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in SG: ARG, 111th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance, I got two boosts on DraftKings Sportsbook to get in on him at this fantastic price
Rickie Fowler: 9800: +2800 – My second favorite pick in the field this week, playing his best golf in years, has been very good this season including having gotten his win a few weeks ago to end the drought, had the 18,36, and 54 hole lead at the US Open this year, T2 here in 2014, has only one missed cut at The Open in eleven attempts, 53,6,28,2246,30,2,MC,31,5,14 finishes at The Open, 42,1,13,5,9,6,MC,14,15,10,13,31,20,10,11 finishes in his last 15 events, 6th in Approach, 35th in SG: OTT, 20th in Good Drives Gained, 56th in Fairways Gained, 50th in Sand Saves, 12th in Par 3 Scoring, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 30th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in SG: ARG, 20th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, 21st in Bogie Avoidance
Tyrrell Hatton: 9400: +2800 – European play who has DP World Tour experience, has played great this season without picking up a win, MC here in 2014 early in his career, 11,MC,6,51,MC,5,MC,MC,MC,MC finishes at The Open so he’s gotten a lot better after missing the cut in five of his first six British Opens, 6,27,3,12,15,5,3,19,34,MC,2,4,40,6 finishes in his last 14 events, 24th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 33rd in Good Drives Gained, 72nd in Fairways Gained, 30th in Sand Saves, 26th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 46th in Par 5 Scoring, 34th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 42nd in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Birdie+ Gained, 6th in Bogie Avoidance
Tommy Fleetwood: 9300: +3000 – European play who has DP World Tour experience, has played great this season without picking up a win, has won in Europe, was in contention last week going into Sunday at the Scottish Open, MC here in 2014 early in his career, two T5 finishes in the last three years with 4,33,2,12,27,MC,MC,MC finishes at The Open, 6,MC,5,2,MC,18,5,15,33,3,27 finishes in his last eleven events, 23rd in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 18th in Good Drives Gained, 26th in Fairways Gained, 2nd in Sand Saves, 13th in Par 3 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 63rd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 8th in SG: ARG, 34th in Putting, 61th in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogie Avoidance
Dustin Johnson: 9200: +3300 – Leads LIV Golf in birdies this season, one of the best golfers on the LIV, T12 here in 2014, tons of great finishes at The Open with a ton of T10s with 6,8,51,MC,54,9,49,12,32,9,2,14,MC finishes, T48 at The Masters, T55 at the PGA Championship and T10 at the US Open, won on LIV this year with T35,T13,7,10,23,1,T23,T8,5 finishes this season, all his stats are flawed since they only include majors since he left the PGA Tour for LIV but 36th in Approach, 36th in SG: OTT, 51st in Good Drives Gained, 102nd in Fairways Gained, 125th in Sand Saves, 54th in Par 3 Scoring, 49th in Par 4 Scoring, 44th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 15th in Par 5 Scoring, 76th in SG: ARG, 58th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Birdie+ Gained, 52nd in Bogie Avoidance, taking the EW on him as well to the T7 and I think he’s priced awesome
Corey Conners: 7700: +8000 – Hammers the ball perfectly straight and long off the tee which I think will play a huge factor this year, he’s won already this season (which I hit), 28,15,MC finishes at The Open, 19,9,MC,20,MC,12,8,31,MC,1,MC,21,61,50,12 finishes in his last 15 events, 11th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 9th in Good Drives Gained, 15th in Fairways Gained, 81st in Sand Saves, 63rd in Par 3 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 36th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 60th in Par 5 Scoring, 72nd in SG: ARG, 82nd in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 19th in Birdie+ Gained, 8th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives Gained (10%)
Fairways Gained (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- DraftKings added back a sub-6000 range in DFS for this week for the first time in years and priced up Scottie to the 12000 range
Bets
Outrights
1.1u Scottie Scheffler (+1182)
.4u Rickie Fowler (+2800)
.4u Tyrrell Hatton (+2800)
.4u Tommy Fleetwood (+3000)
.4u Dustin Johnson (+3300)
.2u Corey Conners (+8000)
T7s
.4u Dustin Johnson (+660)
.2u Corey Conners (+1600)
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