After the final major of the year, which was pretty boring as Brian Harman ran away with The Open Championship, the PGA this week heads to Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7431 yards, designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman, altitude above sea level so shots will go farther than normal, lot of tee boxes so the length of the course could be adjusted easily from round to round, very easy course, was a birdiefest on the Sr. Tour (average winning score of -21) which continued on the PGA but has played a bit tougher the last two years, three of the four Par 3’s are over 200 yards, the Par 4s range quite a bit in distance, the Par 5s are long but can be reachable by some of the field, ton of water here with 27 water hazards (in play on 15 holes), 72 bunkers on the course, wide tree lined fairways around an average of 36 yards, weird fescue if you miss wildly off the tee and miss the water, only 2.5 inch regular rough that isn’t penal, bunkers in the landing zones and water in play on a lot of holes, trees aren’t bunched up with a lot of room between the trees and fairway, above average size greens, run off area only on the front of most greens, bunkers, water and some rough surrounding the greens, pure bentgrass greens (only Colonial and Augusta have that), better than tour average driving accuracy (~64% vs. 62%), better than tour average GIR % (~71% vs. 66%), longer than tour average driving distance (~290 vs. 283 yards), wind could make the course a bit tougher but its still pretty easy to score on
Tournament Notes
- Only the fifth year that this tournament has existed
- Formerly this course hosted the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour
- SG: ARG has barely any impact whatsoever on finishes here
- Every golfer with a T10 finish here the last four years has gained on both approach and SG: T2G (last year Danny Willett lost 0.1 strokes on approach)
- In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 gained at least 2.2 SG: OTT (all but one gained in SG: OTT). In 2020, 9 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT. In 2021, 10 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT (Brian Stuard lost 0.3 strokes)
- In 2019 and 2020, everyone that finished T10 had at least 19 birdies or better for the tournament. In 2021, the 11 golfers that finished T10, had at least 15 (6 of those 11 had at least 19) and played a bit more difficult with windier conditions.
- In 2019, the 12 golfers that finished T10 averaged 23 birdies or better and all were -16 or better and there were only 3 double bogies or worse
- In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 shot -7 or better on the Par 4s and only Sam Burns and Troy Merritt shot worse than -5
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (22.1%), 175-200 yds (21.1%)
Corollary Courses
PGA National (The Honda Classic) – Crossover success, has a ton of water and along with PGA National, this course has the most approach shots on Tour between 175-200 yds
Field
156 golfers – pretty weak field strength with a few more big names in this tournament this week with the new FedEx Cup playoffs rules and guys (Justin Thomas) needing to qualify
Defending Champion: Tony Finau (-17)
Runner Up Last Year: Emiliano Grillo, Sungjae Im (-14)
One and Done: Emiliano Grillo
One and Done Considerations: Hideki, Finau, Grillo, Straka, Glover, Cole
Players
Hideki Matsuyama: 10000: +1900 – Easily one of the best players in the field and first in my model this week, WD here last year (which I don’t care about) and finished T7 here in 2019, 13,MC,13,32,16,29,23,16,15,5 finishes in his last ten events, 2nd in Approach, 36th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Good Drives, 4th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 35th in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 9th in Proximity 200+ yards, 13th in SG: ARG, 103rd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Birdie+ Gained, I used a boost on DK for him so I’m risking more than I typically would at these odds (lets hit it like when I did the same thing on Rickie a month ago)
Emiliano Grillo: 9700: +2800 – Has already won this season at Charles Schwab, T2,MC,T3 here the last three years, 6,MC,15,MC,48,1,MC,23,5,7 finishes in his last ten events, 13th in Approach, 41st in SG: OTT, 5th in Good Drives, 8th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 30th in Par 5 Scoring, 4th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 124th in Proximity 200+ yards, 122nd in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 44th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
Stephan Jaeger: 9100: +4000 – Second in my model this week, MC and T66 finishes here last year and in 2019, 13,9,64,24,68,50,11,27,18,MC,27,44,14 finishes in his last 13 events, 20th in Approach, 27th in SG: OTT, 38th in Good Drives, 42nd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 22nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 20th in Proximity 200+ yards, 12th in SG: ARG, 82nd in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie+ Gained
Lucas Glover: 8200: +5500 – Has finished T6 in his last three (mid-to-weak) field events with 5,6,4,MC,20 finishes in his last five events, has gained +1.4 strokes on approach and +2 strokes OTT per round in his last 12 and his putting has been way better lately, MC,MC,T7 finishes his three times here, 3rd in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 1st in Good Drives, 16th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 25th in Par 4 Scoring, 82nd in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 110th in SG: ARG, 142nd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 37th in Birdie+ Gained
Aaron Rai: 7900: +5000 – First time playing this event, MC,9,24,3,MC,12 finishes in his last six events, 6th in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 9th in Good Drives, 127th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 96th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 34th in Proximity 200+ yards, 52nd in SG: ARG, 87th in Putting, 34th in Opportunities Gained, 18th in Birdie+ Gained
Eric Cole: 7800: +6000 – Has consistently played really well this season, third in my model this week, first time playing this event, 60,42,24,39,6,24,MC,15,23,MC,5,39 finishes in his last 12 events, 14th in Approach, 94th in SG: OTT, 87th in Good Drives, 34th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 13th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 4th in SG: ARG, 10th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained
Chez Reavie: 7300: +11000 – Plays well in low strength fields, T49 and T11 finishes here the last two years, 35,29,4,25,58,40,40,MC,49,11,6 finishes in his last eleven events, 4th in Approach, 113th in SG: OTT, 12th in Good Drives, 39th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 44th in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity 175-200 yards, 18th in Proximity 200+ yards, 105th in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 31st in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- For showdown slates, it’s a slight advantage to stack guys that start on the back nine since 9 is one of the toughest holes on the course but 18 and 1 are two of the easiest
- I’m actually playing DFS this week!
Bets
Outrights
1u Hideki Matsuyama (+1900)
.4u Emiliano Grillo (+2800)
.3u Stephan Jaeger (+4000)
.2u Aaron Rai (+5000)
.2u Lucas Glover (+5500)
.2u Eric Cole (+6000)
.1u Chez Reavie (+11000)
DraftKings Lineups
Lineup: Grillo, Jaeger, Glover, Rai, Cole, Reavie
Contests:
$25 $1M GPP ($200K to 1st)
$12 $40K Single Entry GPP ($4000 to 1st)
$5 $350K GPP ($50K to 1st)
$3 $75K 20 Max GPP ($7500 to 1st)
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A Town's Zone 