This week the PGA Tour regular season concludes with the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, NC as players take their last shot at qualifying for the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7127 yds, Donald Ross design, one of the easiest courses on tour, birdiefest, Bermuda grass throughout, both Par 5s are easily reachable by the entire field (over 70 eagles on the 2 Par 5s in 2019), 8 of the 12 Par 4s are in 400-450 yards range, 2 Par 4s play over 500 yards, average sized tree lined fairways, just a few fairway bunkers, light rough but there could be weird lies out of the Bermuda grass making distance control tough, lot of less than driver off the tee, placement off the tee is more important than length similar to a Pete Dye design, GIR % is way higher than tour average (~73% vs. 65%), GIR from the fairway is over 80% and GIR from the rough is around 50% so that’s a huge gap, small to average sized undulated and sloped multi-tiered greens (back to front), very fast green speeds, there are a lot of shallow bunkers and water guarding the greens on a few holes, edges of the greens are crowned with large collection areas, one of the toughest putting courses on tour which is a staple of Donald Ross designs, high three putt percentage (~68% vs. 55% tour average) with the greens being the biggest defense of the course
Tournament Notes
- The Wyndham Championship has been played here since 2008, but the greens were changed to Bermuda from bentgrass in 2012
- Final event of the regular PGA Tour season before the FedEx Cup playoffs (Top 70 make the FedEx St. Jude Championship next week), so it makes this event matter a lot more but when this was to make the top 125 doesn’t seem to shake out to any actual results for the players on the bubble.
- Any skill set can win here
- Course history plays a big factor here
- 7 of the last 11 winners have ranked T15 for the week in driving accuracy
Key Stats
Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s 400-450 yds
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (26.9%)
Corollary Courses
- Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
- Waialae Country Club (Sony Open)
Crossover success at both courses and similar setups with short Par 70s and Bermuda grass
Field
156 golfers – weaker field strength but better than previous years because there’s more guys trying to make the playoffs with the Top 70 qualifying instead of Top 125
Last Year Champion: Tom Kim (-20) – not defending due to injury
Runner Up Last Year: Sungjae Im, John Huh (-15)
One and Done: Russell Henley
One and Done Considerations: Russell Henley
Players
Russell Henley: 10200: +2000 – best player in the field this week, 5,7,9,31,MC,46 finishes here, MC,35,19,14,16,16,MC,19,4,19 finishes in his last ten events, 6th in Approach, 46th in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 5th in Fairways Gained, 59th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 49th in Birdie+ Gained, 17th in SG: ARG, 85th in Putting, 17th in 3 Putt Avoidance
Denny McCarthy: 8700: +2800 – MC,15,9,22,36 finishes here, MC,6,7,20,2,MC,29,8,25,19,13 finishes in his last eleven events, 32nd in Approach, 58th in SG: OTT, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 25th in Fairways Gained, 26th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 35th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, 28th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 32nd in 3 Putt Avoidance
Aaron Rai: 8600: +4000 – Finished 71st here last year, 20,MC,9,24,3,MC,12 finishes in his last seven events, 9th in Approach, 31st in SG: OTT, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 4th in Fairways Gained, 1st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 57th in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Birdie+ Gained, 46th in SG: ARG, 84th in Putting, 66th in 3 Putt Avoidance
Alex Smalley: 8100: +4500 – 13 and 29 finishes here the last two years, MC,2,47,9,25,MC,40,23,18 finishes in his last nine events, 3rd in Approach, 39th in SG: OTT, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 33rd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 37th in Fairways Gained, 8th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 41st in Birdie+ Gained, 85th in SG: ARG, 112th in Putting, 127th in 3 Putt Avoidance
Eric Cole: 7700: +7000 – 30,60,42,24,39,6,24,MC,15,23,MC,5,39 finishes in his last 13 events, first time playing this event, 17th in Approach, 116th in SG: OTT, 27th in Par 4 Scoring, 21st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 106th in Fairways Gained, 60th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 6th in SG: ARG, 20th in Putting, 8th in 3 Putt Avoidance
Adam Schenk: 7400: +8000 – MC,MC,51,MC,MC finishes here, MC,4,7,MC,MC,7,2 finishes in his last seven events with two second place finishes this season, 7th in Approach, 40th in SG: OTT, 49th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 88th in Fairways Gained, 3rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 88th in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained, 77th in SG: ARG, 15th in Putting, 27th in 3 Putt Avoidance
Doug Ghim: 7200: +7500 – MC,MC,MC,8 finishes here, 27,MC,26,33,15,12,19,27 finishes in his last eight events, 27th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 7th in Fairways Gained, 10th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 29th in Birdie+ Gained, 39th in SG: ARG, 68th in Putting, 108th in 3 Putt Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (15%)
Fairways Gained (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
3 Putt Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.5u Russell Henley (+2000)
.4u Denny McCarthy (+2800)
.3u Aaron Rai (+4000)
.3u Alex Smalley (+4500)
.2u Eric Cole (+7000)
.2u Doug Ghim (+7500)
.2u Adam Schenk (+8000)
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