I crushed last week’s PLL slate in Dallas, going 2-0 to win 2 units. Let’s keep the hot streak rolling as the league goes to Baltimore with a slate at Homewood Field.
Archers vs. Atlas (7/5 3:00)
This is a pretty huge mismatch where going into the season you would’ve thought this would be a fantastic game. The Archers are the best team in the PLL this season, with a 5-1 record, coming off a huge 19-18 victory over the Waterdogs last week. They have the second best offense in the league, averaging 13.7 scores per game and the best defense in the PLL, allowing only 11.3 scores per game. The Atlas are just 2-4, coming off their second win of the season and first in almost two months after beating the Chrome 11-9 last week in Dallas. They’ve struggled on both ends of the field, scoring an average of 12.7 scores per game and allowing an average of 14.3 scores per game, the worst defensive team in the league. Last year these teams played each other twice, with the Atlas winning both games, 10-9 in Week 4 and then 14-9 in Week 8. I love the Archers to get their revenge and win this week as the much better team here and I’ll lay the juice on them for 1.5 units. I’ll also take the over for half a unit. I wish the books offered team totals on PLL, cause I’d hammer the over on the Archers.
Whipsnakes vs. Chrome (7/5 5:30)
This is a home game for the Whips, with most of the team being alumni of Maryland. The Whipsnakes finally picked up a much needed win last week in Dallas, beating the Chaos 17-16 (still cashing my Chaos +1.5 bet). They’re now 2-4 on the season and desperately need wins. The Whips have been good offensively, but have struggled defensively, both scoring and allowing an average of 13.7 scores per game. The Chrome, who turned it around last season, have looked terrible this year. They’re in last place with a 1-5 record after a 11-9 loss to the Atlas last week, in real danger of being the only team to miss the playoffs this season. They have easily the worst offense in the PLL, averaging just 9 scores per game but they haven’t been too bad defensively, allowing an average of 11.7 scores per game. These teams already played a tight game this season, with the Chrome getting their only win of the year against the Whipsnakes in Week 1 with a 12-11 final. I like the Whips to get their revenge with a win at home today (I’d be so shocked if when these teams get assigned cities they don’t end up in Baltimore) and will take them for a unit. I’ll also take half a unit stab at the under.
Redwoods vs. Chaos (7/6 1:00)
This should be a fun matchup with the two 3-3 teams facing off to start off Sunday’s slate on ABC, both coming off of losses last week in Dallas. The Redwoods are on a downward trajectory, desperate for a win as they’ve lost three of their last four games by at least six goals, coming off a 16-10 loss to the Cannons last week. They’ve struggled offensively this season, scoring an average of just 10 scores per game. I picked up a win last week on the Chaos +1.5, as they lost a close, high scoring 17-16 matchup to the Whipsnakes to drop to 3-3 on the year. Their offense has been decent, averaging 12.5 scores per game. Both teams have been pretty even defensively, with the Redwoods allowing an average of 12.2 scores per game and the Chaos allowing an average of 12. These teams played already this season, with the Redwoods winning 13-8 in Minneapolis in Week 4. With the offensive edge, I think the Chaos pick up a win here and get even on the season with the Woods, and I will take them for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Waterdogs vs. Cannons (7/6 3:30)
We have easily the game of the weekend to close out the week in Baltimore with the 4-2 Waterdogs taking on the shockingly 4-2 Cannons, the league’s two expansion teams. The defending champion Waterdogs took just their second loss of the season last week, losing a close one, 19-18 in easily the best game of the year against the Archers in what was a battle for first place and the ability to control their own destiny. That game ended their three game win streak, but the Dogs are still having a great year. They’ve scored an average of 13.3 scores per game and have allowed an average of 12.3 scores per game. After starting the season 0-2 and everyone expecting them to be terrible without Lyle, the Cannons have been on fire, on a four game win streak to improve to 4-2 on the year. They kept rolling last week in Dallas, beating the the Redwoods 16-10. Led by Asher Nolting in his second season, the Bomb Squad has the best offense in the PLL, averaging 14.5 scores per game. Their defense has been much better than expected as well, allowing an average of 11.8 scores per game. These teams played twice last season and split those games, with the Cannons winning 16-10 in Week 1 and then the Waterdogs answering back with a 15-14 win in Week 8. I’d lean the Waterdogs get the win here to close out the weekend, but not enough to bet on them and keep underestimating the Cannons. Expecting this to be a high scoring game, I’ll take the over for a unit.
Bets
1.5u Archers ML (-166)
.5u Archers/Atlas over 25.5 (-105)
1u Whipsnakes ML (-160)
.5u Whipsnakes/Chrome under 23.5 (-105)
.5u Chaos ML (-125)
1u Waterdogs/Cannons over 25.5 (-105)
Record: 8-11 (-1.26 units)
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