Last week in Baltimore I had another great week on the PLL, going 5-1 to win 2.94 units, extending my run for the last two weeks to 7-1. This week the league goes to Denver with just a few weeks left in the regular season.
Chaos vs. Whipsnakes (8/11 8:00)
Fun game to start off the weekend. After a brutal 1-4 start for the Whips, they’ve won their last two games in a row, dominating the Chrome last week in a 12-5 victory in Baltimore to improve to 4-3 on the year. The Whipsnake have been good offensively, averaging 13.4 scores per game. They’ve struggled a bit defensively though, allowing an average of 12.4 scores per game. The Chaos are 4-3, coming off a 14-12 comeback win against the Redwoods. They’ve been pretty much league average on both ends of the field, scoring an average of 12.7 scores per game and allowing an average of 12 scores per game. These teams just played two weeks ago in Dallas with the Whipsnakes winning 17-16 in a very close game. I’m going right back to the same bet I had in that game with half a unit on the Chaos +1.5. I’d lean the Whips win it, but its a pretty close matchup to me and I think either team could win, so getting the 1.5 goals at -150, I’ll take it. I would slightly lean the under, but not enough to bet it, especially with how high scoring their game two weeks ago.
Chrome vs. Archers (8/11 10:30)
This is going to be a complete stinker of a game with the best team in the PLL facing off against the worst, and the moneyline on this game shows it with the Archers coming in as astounding -270 favorites. The Archers lead the league with a 6-1, coming off a close 14-13 win against the Atlas last week. They have the second best offense in the league, averaging 13.7 scores per game. The Chrome on the other hand are in dead last with a 1-6, in real trouble of missing the playoffs. They got dominated again last week, losing 12-5 to the Chrome. Their offense has been horrible this season, scoring easily the fewest goals in the PLL, scoring an average of just 8.4 scores per game. Both of these teams have had similar performances by their defenses, pretty much making this an offensive battle that the Archers should absolutely dominate. That’s exactly what happened when these teams played in Week 2 this season, with the Archers winning 12-7. Even though I don’t love laying 2.5 goals and the moneyline is way too expensive to bet, I’ll take the Archers -2.5 here for a unit. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Atlas vs. Waterdogs (8/12 7:00)
I wouldn’t call this the best game on the slate, but I could see it being a fun one to watch. The defending champion Waterdogs are 4-3, losing back to back games after last week’s 12-8 loss to the Cannons to close out the weekend in Baltimore. The Dogs have been a mid tier team on both ends of the field, averaging 12.6 scores per game and allowing an average of 12.3 scores per game. The Atlas have been pretty terrible this season, which is a big disappointment considering their preseason expectations. They’ve been decent offensively, scoring an average of 12.7 scores per game but they’ve really struggled on the back end of the field, allowing the most goals in the PLL, an average of 14.3 scores per game. They hope to add a spark after trading for Myles Jones from the Redwoods in exchange for Romar Dennis. When these teams played earlier this season in Week 3 in Columbus, the Waterdogs got a 19-18 win. The Waterdogs are the better team here and I think their defensive edge gets them the win again here, and I’ll take the defending champs for half a unit. I like the over in this game even more though, which I’ll take for 1.5 units.
Cannons vs. Redwoods (8/12 9:30)
Going into this season, I expected the Cannons to be the worst team in the league, but they’ve been fucking electric this season. They’re second in the league with a 5-2 record, and after opening the season with two straight losses, they’re the hottest team in the PLL on a five game win streak after a 12-8 win against the defending champion Waterdogs last week in Baltimore. The bomb squad has the best offense in the PLL, averaging an impressive 14.1 scores per game. The Redwoods on the other hand are struggling big time. Coming off a 14-12 loss to the Chaos last week, they’re on a three game losing streak with just one win in their last five games, dropping to 3-4 after a hot start to the year. The Woods, who just made a huge trade, sending Myles Jones to the Atlas in exchange for Romar Dennis, have really struggled offensively, averaging just 10.3 scores per game. Defensively they’ve been fine, allowing an average of 12.4 scores per game. These teams just played two weeks ago with the Cannons winning 16-10 in Dallas. I expect them to do it again. I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Bets
.5u Chaos +1.5 (-150)
1u Archers -2.5 (-120)
.5u Waterdogs ML (-145)
1.5u Waterdogs/Atlas over 24.5 (-125)
1u Cannons ML (-166)
Record: 13-12 (+1.68 units)
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A Town's Zone 