I keep crushing the PLL, winning for the fourth week in a row last week in Washington as I went 4-1 to win 2.04 units, with my only loss coming with the Redwoods winning by just a goal and not covering the -1.5. We’re onto the last week of the regular season in Salt Lake City this week!
Archers vs. Waterdogs (8/25 8:00)
Last week the Archers locked up first overall with a blowout win over the Whipsnakes, where they got out to a 12-2 lead less than two minutes into the third quarter and just cruised to a 16-11 victory. That makes this game meaningless to the 8-1 Archers, who already clinched a bye next week for the first round of the playoffs. Their easily the best team in the league, with the stats on both sides of the field showing that, as they’re second in the PLL in scoring (behind the Cannons by just three goals on the season), averaging 13.9 scores per game and have the best defense in the PLL, allowing an average of just 10.8 scores per game. The Waterdogs have their spot in the playoffs clinched with a 6-3 record, just playing for seeding this week. They’re coming off a big win last week, beating the Chaos 13-8 to close out the weekend in Seattle. The defending champs have been good on both ends of the field this year. They’ve scored an average of 12.8 scores per game and they’ve allowed an average of 11.7 scores per game. These teams played an awesome game in Week 7 in Dallas with the Archers getting a 19-18 win. With the lack of motivation for both teams in this game, I’m going to stay off a side in game. If it was still mid season, I would be betting the Archers for sure here, but without this meaning anything to them, I’ll skip it. I love the over though, which I’ll take for two units.
Atlas vs. Redwoods (8/25 10:30)
Not a great matchup here, but it might end up being a fun game. The Atlas technically haven’t locked their spot in the playoffs, but it’s pretty much impossible for them to miss it, ahead of the Chrome by a game and a 17 goal differential. So it would take a colossal collapse for them to miss it. This season has not been good for them though. The Atlas are 2-7, coming off a close 14-13 loss to the Cannons last week and they’re on a three game losing streak. They’ve struggled on both ends of the field. They’ve averaged 12.6 scores per game, which isn’t completely awful, even though they’re in the bottom three in the league. The Atlas has been absolutely horrendous defensively though, allowing easily the most goals in the league, an average of 14.2 scores per game. I know the regular season doesn’t really matter in the PLL unless you’re in dead last, but not a chance this team makes it past the first round of the playoffs. The Redwoods are in the playoffs with a 5-4 record, but they’re not great either. They’ve won their last two games in a row, but dealt me my only loss of last week in Washington since they needed overtime to beat the shitty Chrome 11-10 and couldn’t cover the -1.5 after blowing a 10-7 lead in the fourth quarter, not scoring at all in the second or fourth quarters of the game. The Woods have the second worst offense in the PLL by a significant margin, averaging just 11 scores per game. Their defense has been mid tier, allowing an average of 12.4 scores per game. These teams played a close game in Week 1 to open the season, with the Redwoods winning 13-12 in Albany. I’d lean the Redwoods and the over in this game but not a chance I’m touching this shitty matchup of two teams that won’t be playing lacrosse in two weeks.
Cannons vs. Whipsnakes (8/26 7:00)
This is a great matchup for seedings to close out the regular season. The Cannons are having a great season, especially with the expectation going into the season that they would suck. They’re 6-3 and after having their five game win streak come to an end in overtime two weeks ago against the Redwoods, they bounced back in Washington last week with a 14-13 win over the Atlas. The bomb squad offense leads the PLL in scoring, averaging 14.2 scores per game and they’ve been really solid defensively too, allowing an average of 12 scores per game. The Whipsnakes had a poor start to the year, but had their three game win streak to fix their record come to an end last week with a 16-11 loss in Seattle against the Archers. They’re now 4-5, playing for seeding and could make some noise in the playoffs. The Whips offense has been good this season, averaging 13 scores per game but their defense has struggled a bit, allowing an average of 12.6 scores per game. Last season these teams played in Week 11, with the Whipsnakes winning 11-9. I’d lean the Cannons offense gives them the edge to get the win here, but not enough to bet it. I like the over though, which I’ll take for a unit.
Chaos vs. Chrome (8/26 9:30)
Shitty matchup to finish the weekend and the regular season. The Chaos are 4-5, looking to avenge their championship loss last season and make their third championship game appearance in a row. They’re coming off a 13-8 loss to the Waterdogs last week. The Chaos are a mid-tier team on both ends of the field, scoring an average of 11.9 scores per game and allowing an average of 12.1 scores per game. The Chrome on the other hand are by far the worst team in the PLL, and although it’s technically not official with their 1-8 record, it’s pretty much impossible for them to make the playoffs, needing more than a miracle. It ain’t happening. Last week they lost 11-10 in overtime to the Redwoods after outscoring them 3-0 in the fourth quarter to tie it up and force OT. They have by far the worst offense in the PLL, averaging just 8.2 scores per game. Their defense isn’t awful, allowing an average of 11.8 scores per game, but I don’t think that’s gonna matter with how shitty their offense is. Last season these teams split their two games, with the Chrome winning 13-9 in Week 9 and then the Chaos answering back with an 11-3 blowout win in Week 11. I’m expecting a similar blowout this week and I’ll take the Chaos -1.5 for a unit.
Bets
2u Archers/Waterdogs over 25.5 (-120)
1u Cannons/Whipsnakes over 25.5 (-110)
1u Chaos -1.5 (-145)
Record: 20-15 (+4.3 units)
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