Last week I closed out the PLL regular season with a sweep, going 3-0 to win 4 units, extending my winning streak to five straight weeks. This week the league begins their playoffs with a loaded Labor Day slate in Boston for the quarterfinals.
Chaos vs. Redwoods (9/4 11:45am)
The Chaos will look to make their trip to their third straight PLL Championship game and it starts with a pretty favorable matchup for them against the Redwoods. The Chaos head into the playoffs with a 5-5 record, finishing the regular season with a big 13-7 win over the Chrome. They were a mid-tier team on both ends of the field this year, scoring an average of 12 scores per game and allowing an average of 11.6 scores per game. Andy Towers gets his team to turn it on in the playoffs though, as the last two years they limped into the playoffs and still made the championship game as a low seed and rode the best goalie in the world in Blaze Riorden. The Redwoods went into the playoffs on a three game winning streak to end the regular season 6-4, beating the Atlas 12-7 last week in Salt Lake City. The Woods have the second worst offense in the PLL, the worst of the teams that made the playoffs, averaging just 11.1 scores per game. Their defense has been mid tier, allowing an average of 11.9 scores per game. These teams played twice during the regular season this year, splitting those games, with the Redwoods winning 13-8 in Week 4 and the Chaos answering back with a 14-12 win in Week 8. I’m expecting Big Blaze and the Chaos advance here and will take them for half a unit. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Whipsnakes vs. Waterdogs (9/4 2:20pm)
This game’s extremely interesting to me. The Whipsnakes were such a dominant team in the first three years of this league, winning back to back championship and losing in the finals to the Chaos in 2021. This year though, they weren’t great, starting the year 1-4 and ending the regular season on back to back losses after a 15-11 loss last week to the Cannons, ending the regular season 4-5. Not great. Over the course of the season, they were pretty good offensively, despite plenty of injuries but struggled on the defensive side of the field, both scoring and allowing an average of 12.8 scores per game. The Waterdogs will look to defend their title this year and with a very good 7-3 regular season, they’re in good shape in the playoffs, but this is a tough draw for them in the first round. They finished the regular season last week winning 14-13 against the Archers on Friday night in Salt Lake City, in a game that really didn’t matter for either team. The Dogs were solid on both ends of the field this season. They averaged 12.9 scores per game, and allowed an average of 11.8. These teams met just once in the regular season this year, with the Waterdogs winning 16-13 in Week 5. I think the Whipsnakes keep this one close, but like the defending champs to come out on top with a win. I’ll take the Waterdogs for a unit. I also like the over, which I’ll take for half a unit here.
Atlas vs. Cannons (9/4 5:00pm)
This is such a huge mismatch to end the weekend, which to me makes me question why the PLL makes seven of their eight teams make the playoffs. In no way do the Atlas belong in the playoffs this season with what a disappointment of a year this has been for them, and they don’t stand a chance this week. They went into the playoffs on a four game losing streak, ending the regular season 2-8 after a 12-7 loss to the Redwoods in Salt Lake City. Their offense wasn’t horrible, averaging 12 scores per game, but their defense was god awful, by far the worst in the PLL, allowing an average of 14 scores per game. The Cannons going into the season were what I expected the Atlas (and Chrome) ended up being. Especially without Lyle Thompson playing this season, I thought the Bomb Squad would be awful, but boy was I wrong, and they were spectacular this season. They ended the season 7-3 with a 15-11 win last week over the Whips to close out the regular season with just one loss in their last seven games after opening the season 0-2. Asher Nolting, who is my pick for the Jim Brown player of the year, in his second season led the Cannons to have the best offense in the PLL, averaging 14.3 scores per game. Their defense wasn’t nearly as bad as I expected either, playing solid lacrosse, as they allowed an average of 11.9 scores per game. The Cannons won both games between these teams in the regular season this year, dominating in a 19-12 win in Week 4 and then winning a close one, 14-13 in Week 10. I’m expecting they turn it up and this week ends up looking a lot closer to that Week 4 win. I hate that the moneyline on this game is as high as -200, but I’m going to lay that for 1.5 units just because I don’t want to smash a -2.5 goal line. If this game was -1.5 on the Cannons or the moneyline was a bit cheaper, this would easily be a game of the year for me. I’ll also take the -2.5 for a unit. I like the over in this game a lot too, which I’ll take for 1.5 units as well. I really wish the books would start offering team totals for the PLL, cause I would be all over the Cannons on this one.
Bets
.5u Chaos ML (-130)
1u Waterdogs ML (-140)
.5u Waterdogs/Whipsnakes over 24.5 (-125)
1.5u Cannons ML (-200)
1u Cannons -2.5 (+105)
1.5u Cannons/Atlas over 26.5 (-110)
Record: 23-15 (+8.3 units)
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A Town's Zone 