Last week I started off the PLL playoffs beautifully, going 5-1 to win 4.9 units for my sixth winning week in a row! Crushing this season!! This week the Top 4 teams in the league head to Long Island for the semifinals, the penultimate week of the season.
Archers vs. Redwoods (9/10 3:00)
The Archers had an incredible regular season, earning the first seed in the playoffs with their 8-2 year, and getting the week off with a bye as the rest of the league battled it out in Boston in the first round. The Archers were incredible this season on both ends of the field, winning games effortlessly. They had the second-best offense in the league (just slightly behind the Cannons), averaging 13.8 scores per game and the best defense in the PLL, allowing an average of just 11.1 scores per game. The Redwoods went into the playoffs on a three game winning streak to end the regular season 6-4. They followed it up with a solid 15-9 win over the Chaos last week in Boston in the first round (my only loss of the weekend) to extend that win streak. On the season, the Woods have struggled offensively, with the second worst offense in the PLL, the worst of the teams that made the playoffs, averaging just 11.1 scores per game. Their defense was decent enough, allowing an average of 11.9 scores per game. The first time these teams played this season back in Week 5, the Archers won 10-3, setting a record for the fewest goals allowed in a game in PLL history. Although I expect this game ends up being closer than that first game and I don’t see the Redwoods getting limited to only three goals, I still expect an easy win for the Archers here. I’ll take them for 1.5 units, laying the -190. I’d slightly lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Cannons vs. Waterdogs (9/10 5:30)
This is going to be an incredible matchup to watch and could be the best game of the season. The Waterdogs will look to defend their title this year and with a very good 7-3 regular season and then a 15-12 win over the Whipsnakes last week, they’re a game away from making their second straight trip to the finals. The Dogs were solid on both ends of the field this season. They averaged 12.9 scores per game, and allowed an average of 11.8. The Cannons had a cake walk last week, dominating the Atlas with a 20-11 win. Especially without Lyle Thompson playing this season, I thought the Bomb Squad would be awful, but boy was I wrong, and they were spectacular this season. They ended the regular season 7-3, relying on their fantastic offense. The Cannons have the best offense in the PLL this season, averaging 14.3 scores per game. Their defense wasn’t nearly as bad as I expected either, playing solid lacrosse, as they allowed an average of 11.9 scores per game. In the regular season, these teams met in week 8 with the Cannons winning 12-8. I’d slightly lean they win again but this game feels like pretty much a coin flip to me. Although that first game stayed under the total, I really like the over in this one, which I’ll take for 2 units.
Bets
1.5u Archers ML (-190)
2u Waterdogs/Cannons over 26.5 (-115)
Record: 28-16 (+13.2 units)
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A Town's Zone 