The PGA Tour season kicks off this week with the first fall swing season event of the year, the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Country Club in Napa, CA. I had a great season, finishing the year with three outright wins in last two weeks on Viktor Hovland and last year I had a fantastic swing season hitting four winners in eight weeks. Let’s capture that magic again!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7166 yards, most golfers should reach all the Par 5s in two, birdiefest especially if the course softens up, 6/10 Par 4s are 400-450 yards (and another is 453), two of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, tree lined tight fairways are hilly with a lot of roll and there are bunkers guarding the landing areas, driving accuracy is lower here than tour average (~52% vs. 62%), two cuts of rough which is not very penal with the first cut of rough being minuscule and easy to hit out of, resort course so the Kentucky bluegrass rough won’t get higher than 2.5 inches, there are several doglegs and missing on the wrong side of the fairway could be tougher to work around, large trees throughout the course are sporadic and not bunched together but they’re very tall and towering, firm average sized bentgrass with POA greens, slightly elevated greens with some slope and heavy undulation, green side bunkers guarding the front of most greens with some tightly mowed runoff areas
Tournament Notes
- Formerly called the Safeway Open
- First event of the 2023 PGA Tour season
- This course has hosted this event since 2015
- Putting is completely insignificant here
- A lot of the Korn Ferry Tour grads are in the field for the first time this week
- Six of the last nine winners have been good ball strikers who typically are lousy putters (Max last year is pretty good on both)
- 16-18 are three of the five easiest holes on the course so we can see some interesting finishes here
- The reshuffling of the fall swing season and the different FedEx Cup points values for these events could be why the field, like last year is weaker than previous years
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring (400-450 yards)
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (19%), 125-150 yards (18.4%), 100-125 yards (18.3%)
Field
156 golfers – Pretty weak field strength with a sharp drop off after Homa (and JT I guess from a career talent perspective)
Defending Champion: Max Homa (-16)
Runner Up Last Year: Danny Willett (-15)
Players
Stephan Jaeger: 10200: +2200 – Hasn’t missed a cut since the RBC Heritage in April, 43,MC,MC,30 finishes here, 20,14,30,13,9,64,24,68,50,11,27,18 finishes in his last twelve events, 25th in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 33rd in Driving Distance, 62nd in Good Drives Gained, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 40th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 98th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 42nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 21st in SG: ARG, 65th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained
Cameron Davis: 10100: +2500 – Was inconsistent last season but played in much stronger fields, MC,36,MC,17 finishes here, 40,6,7,10,MC,17,33 finishes in his last seven events, 23rd in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 25th in Driving Distance, 32nd in Good Drives Gained, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 85th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 1st in Proximity 125-150 yards, 39th in Proximity 200+ yards, 27th in SG: ARG, 100th in Putting, 35th in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Birdie+ Gained
Eric Cole: 9500: +3500 – I rode him all of last season and think he gets his first win in the swing season, 25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24,MC,15,23,MC,5 finishes in his last 15 events, MC his only time here last season, 13th in Approach, 108th in SG: OTT, 104th in Driving Distance, 85th in Good Drives Gained, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 1st in Proximity 100-125 yards, 19th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 8th in Proximity 200+ yards, 58th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
JJ Spaun: 9200: +3500 – Bringing back my old dfs darling here after years of not taking him (he was on the lineup of my biggest win ever in 2016), 59,MC,9,MC,41,MC,55 finishes here, 24,38,37,33,MC,30,63,MC,27,MC,22 finishes in his last eleven events, 8th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 101st in Driving Distance, 11th in Good Drives Gained, 27th in Par 4 Scoring, 28th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 38th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 10th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 23rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 55th in SG: ARG, 134th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 83rd in Birdie+ Gained
Chez Reavie: 8500: +6000 – Popped a good amount at the end of the season, MC,28,3,33,33,13,22,17 finishes here, 27,MC,35,29,4,25,58,40,40,MC,49,11,6 finishes in his last 13 events, 1st in Approach, 106th in SG: OTT, 135th in Driving Distance, 26th in Good Drives Gained, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 42nd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 9th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 37th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 28th in Proximity 200+ yards, 86th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 25th in Birdie+ Gained
Doug Ghim: 8000: +7000 – First in my model this week, 72,MC,14 finishes here, 51,27,MC,26,33,15,12,19,27 finishes in his last nine events, 7th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 83rd in Driving Distance, 2nd in Good Drives Gained, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 15th in Proximity 100-125 yards, 6th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 20th in Proximity 200+ yards, 20th in SG: ARG, 108th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained
Nate Lashley: 7400: +9000 – 51,57,21,56,MC,17,MC,23,27,39,31 finishes in his last eleven events, 55,16,MC,MC,17,MC finishes here, 10th in Approach, 88th in SG: OTT, 88th in Driving Distance, 19th in Good Drives Gained, 37th in Par 4 Scoring, 26th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 22nd in Proximity 100-125 yards, 55th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 15th in Proximity 200+ yards, 46th in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 53rd in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Proximity 100-125 yards (5%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds (including Korn Ferry Tour stats)
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- There will be a lot of football money in play this week and ownership will be heavier concentrated, so there’s a lot of good ways to differentiate from the field
- I really like Homa this week and could absolutely see him repeat here, but at +700, even with how weak the field is, I can’t bet him at that number
- This event (and the entire swing season for that matter) sucks, but someone has to win it…the money’s in the crumbs!
Bets
Outrights
.5u Stephen Jaeger (+2200)
.4u Cameron Davis (+2500)
.3u Eric Cole (+3500)
.3u JJ Spaun (+3500)
.2u Doug Ghim (+6000)
.2u Chez Reavie (+7000)
.2u Nate Lashley (+9000)
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