A few weeks ago at the Fortinet Championship for the start of the fall swing season, I couldn’t hit the winner but got third and fourth place finishes with all seven of my picks making the cut (four finishing T17 or better). After a couple weeks off for the Ryder Cup, the PGA Tour is back with the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi.
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7461 yds, six Par 4s between 400-450 yards, strokes gained off the tee plays a significant factor here, average width tree lined fairways with bunkers guarding the landing zones, trees aren’t too dense and penal, much lower driving accuracy here vs. tour average (54% vs. 62%), higher GIR % here vs. tour average (69% vs. 66%), birdie rate on the Par 5s is in the bottom 15 of courses on tour each year so they aren’t as easy as on other courses, the 15th hole is a drivable Par 4, Bermuda rough is only around 2 inches so shouldn’t be too hard to hit out of but could have some tough lies, above average sized elevated Bermuda greens with a bit of slope and undulation, guarded by bunkers, water and runoff areas, greens are pretty receptive
Tournament Notes
- Prior to 2019, this used to be an alternative event played on the week of a major. In 2019, it moved to a full PGA event in the fall swing season
- This course have hosted this tournament since 2015
- Golfers with a big range of talents have won here and plenty of long shots have won here
- Three of the last seven winners here were tour rookies
- Five of the last eight winners got their first PGA win here
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring (400-450 yards)
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (22.2%), 125-150 yards (19.6%)
Field
144 golfers – pretty poor field strength, typical swing season event
Defending Champion: Mackenzie Hughes (-17 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Sepp Straka (-17)
Players
Stephan Jaeger: 10400: +2000 – Hasn’t missed a cut since the RBC Heritage in April, 30,26,MC,14,51,MC finishes here, 45,20,14,30,13,9,64,24,68,50,11,27,18 finishes in his last 13 events, 28th in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 27th in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 1st in Par 5 scoring, 110th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 25th in Proximity 200+ yards, 19th in SG: ARG, 70th in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities gained, 7th in Birdie+ gained
Eric Cole: 10300: +2200 – I rode him all the regular season and think he ends up getting his win in the swing season, I don’t love his odds but I’m betting it anyway, second in my model this week, led the field a few weeks ago in SG: T2G (+12.3 SG) at the Fortinet where he finished fourth, 4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24,MC,15,23,MC,5 finishes in his last 16 events, MC his only time here last year, 6th in Approach, 105th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 47th in Par 5 scoring, 20th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 37th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities gained, 1st in Birdie+ gained
Doug Ghim: 9100: +5500 – First in my model this week and looks great stat wise as a course fit (same as a few weeks ago at the Fortinet), 58,34,MC,71 finishes here, 17,51,27,MC,26,33,15,12,19,27 finishes in his last ten events, 7th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 20th in Par 5 scoring, 5th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 34th in Proximity 200+ yards, 21st in SG: ARG, 90th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities gained, 3rd in Birdie+ gained
Alex Smalley: 8900: +4500 – Hasn’t played since the FedEx St. Jude in August, MC and 31 finishes here the last two years, 65,MC,MC,2,47,9,25,MC,40,23,18 finishes in his last eleven events, 1st in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 30th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 60th in Par 5 scoring, 19th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 14th in Proximity 200+ yards, 44th in SG: ARG, 119th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities gained, 24th in Birdie+ gained
Akshay Bhatia: 7900: +6000 – His putting has been awful lately but he’s been pretty good T2G, MC,MC,9,35,MC,68,MC,56,43,4,MC,46,24,MC,2 finishes in his last 15 events, MC his only time here in 2019, 17th in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 61st in Par 4 scoring, 24th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 4th in Par 5 scoring, 7th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 39th in Proximity 200+ yards, 80th in SG: ARG, 132nd in Putting, 9th in Opportunities gained, 21st in Birdie+ gained
Callum Tarren: 7500: +5500 – Gained strokes in every category a few weeks ago in his 7th place finish at the Fortinet, 7,MC,13,MC,MC,29,33,43,MC,29 finishes in his last ten events, 13 and MC finishes here the last two years, 35th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards, 39th in Par 5 scoring, 100th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 51st in Proximity 200+ yards, 96th in SG: ARG, 94th in Putting, 24th in Opportunities gained, 28th in Birdie+ gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Par 4 scoring (10%)
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Par 5 scoring (10%)
Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities gained (5%)
Birdie+ gained (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.5u Stephen Jaeger (+2000)
.5u Eric Cole (+2200)
.3u Alex Smalley (+4500)
.2u Doug Ghim (+5500)
.2u Callum Tarren (+5500)
.2u Akshay Bhatia (+6000)
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