This week the PGA Tour fall swing season continues as they go to TPC Summerlin just off the Las Vegas strip for the Shriners Children’s Open.

No video this week. It’s almost 1am, fuck it. But hey! I’m still writing and publishing this blog…you’re welcome.

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7255 yards, seven Par 4s between 400-450 yards, course plays a lot shorter due to the elevation so the ball goes 8-10% farther on average here (average drives 297 yards vs. tour average of 283 yards), two of the three Par 5s are reachable in two by the whole field and the other one is reachable by a lot of the field because of the extra length from the altitude, pretty wide tree lined bermuda fairways that tighten up a bit around 300 yards, fairways play firm which leads to extra rollout and even more distance off the tee, missing fairways isn’t very penal with trees spread out and the bermuda rough is pretty short (but can give tricky lies and tough to control distance out of it), rocky native areas if you miss wildly, large bentgrass greens with average speeds and a lot of sneaky slope and undulation with putts breaking more than they look like they will even though the greens look relatively flat, 50 greenside bunkers and 3 inch rough surrounding the greens, top ten hardest course on tour in scrambling and sand save % but that’s a bit misleading because of how the course plays, GIR % here is a lot higher than tour average (73% vs. 66%), birdiefest with the winning score around -20 unless the wind gets real bad

Tournament Notes

• This event has ended in a playoff 3 of the previous 7 years
• 12 of the last 22 winners here got their first PGA Tour victory at this event (6 of the last 15)
• 8 of the last 10 winners were T20 in driving accuracy for the week (Kevin Na, who putted lights out was the exception to that)

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 scoring: 400-450 yards (10%)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (24.8%), 125-150 and 150-175  yards (both 20.3%)

Field

132 golfers – pretty weak field strength

Defending Champion: Tom Kim (-24)

Runner Up Last Year: Patrick Cantlay, Matthew NeSmith (-21)

Players

Cameron Davis: 10300: +2500 – One of the top players in the field this week and his price is worth betting, was inconsistent last season but played in much stronger fields, 37,27,52,28 finishes here, 3,40,6,7,10,MC,17,33 finishes in his last eight events, 23rd in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 58th in Proximity 200+ yards, 4th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 22nd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 11th in SG: ARG, 76th in Putting, 57th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained

Eric Cole: 9800: +3500 – I’m riding this kid till he wins since it’s going to happen and it’lll likely be in the swing season, led the field a few weeks ago in SG: T2G (+12.3 SG) at the Fortinet where he finished fourth, MC here in his debut here last year, 5,4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24,MC,15,23,MC,5 finishes in his last 1 events, 6th in Approach,113th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 19th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 6th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 44th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 59th in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained

Adam Schenk: 9200: +3000 – First event since the Tour Championship, great course history here with 12,3,27,18,MC,20 finishes, 9,34,6,64,MC,4,7,MC,MC,7,2 finishes in his last eleven events, 2nd in Approach, 54th in SG: OTT, 32nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 33rd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 2nd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 39th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 19th in Par 5 Scoring, 93rd in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 39th in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained

Aaron Rai: 8800: +7000 – Really pops in my model this week, hasn’t played since the FedEx St. Jude in August, 49,MC,20,MC,9,24,3,MC,12 finishes in his last nine events, 20,MC finishes here the last two years, 8th in Approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 91st in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in Proximity 125-150 yards, 6th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 72nd in SG: ARG, 96th in Putting, 50th in Opportunities Gained, 39th in Birdie+ Gained

Alex Smalley: 8500: +5500 – Played his first event of the swing season last week with an 18th place finish at the Sanderson Farms, 16,65,MC,MC,2,47,9,25,MC,40,23,18 finishes in his last twelve events, 47th place finish here in his only time here in 2021, 5th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 23rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 29th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 15th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 33rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 48th in Par 5 Scoring, 53rd in SG: ARG, 106th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Birdie+ Gained

Doug Ghim: 7800: +7500 – First in my model AGAIN this week for the third straight week, he’s gotta win sometime with stats like that, 56,40,MC finishes here, MC,17,51,27,MC,26,33,15,12,19,27 finishes in his last eleven events, 9th in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 43rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 17th in Proximity 125-150 yards, 11th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 22nd in Par 5 Scoring, 18th in SG: ARG, 94th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Proximity 200+ yards (5%)

Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)

Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (10%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• Last year I hit the outright here on Tom Kim, who went bogie-free the entire week for his second career win
• I thought about betting Tom Kim again since I had a small card, but he’s just not worth +1200 with how long he’s been off

Bets

Outright

.4u Cameron Davis (+2500)

.4u Adam Schenk (+3000)

.3u Eric Cole (+3500)

.2u Alex Smalley (+5500)

.2u Aaron Rai (+7000)

.2u Doug Ghim (+7500)

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