The PGA Tour goes all the way to Japan this week for the ZOZO Championship at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club for a limited field, no cut event.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7041 yards, 5 Par 3s which are all relatively short (none over 191 yards) and 3 Par 5s with two of the Par 5s reachable in two by most golfers, 5 of the Par 4s are under 425 yards and the other 5 are over 480 yards with none in between, only one of the longer Par 4s has water in play and there isn’t much trouble off the tee on the long Par 4s, tight tree lined fairways that tend to get more narrow after the 280 yard range with fairway bunkers in the landing zones and water on two holes, rough isn’t too long but could have tricky lies and distance control out of the zoysia grass, tree line is about 15 yards from the edge of the fairways so there is some room for error if you miss the fairway, much lower driving accuracy here vs tour average (~55% vs. 62%), two greens on every hole which is standard for Japanese courses but only one green will be used for the entire tournament besides the 4th hole which will switch each round, size of greens will switch from hole to hole depending on which is used with one small green and one large green on each hole, larger greens are average to tour standard and for the most part most holes are using the smaller holes, bent grass greens with tons of slope and undulation but average in speed, numerous runoff areas and green side bunkers mostly on the front
Tournament Notes
- Small field no cut event
- This is a co-hosted event with the Asian Tour
- Because this event is taking place in Japan, it starts Wednesday evening rather than Thursday morning
- Fourth time this course has hosted this event
- No strokes gained data for this course
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained
Field
78 golfers – Much better strength field for a swing season event, no Korn Ferry Tour members but some members from the Asian Tour
Defending Champion: Keegan Bradley (-15)
Runner Up Last Year: Andrew Putnam, Rickie Fowler (-14)
Players
Collin Morikawa: 10800: +1200 – First in my model by a significant margin, T45,T50,T22 finishes here the last three years, coming off the Ryder Cup where he secured 1 point in his 4 matches, 6,25,13,MC,2,MC,14,29,26 in his last nine stroke play events, 3rd in Approach, 6th in SG: OTT, 4th in Fairways Gained, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 36th in SG: ARG, 56th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained
Rickie Fowler: 10000: +1600 – Coming off the Ryder Cup where he didn’t get a point in his two matches, T2,T57 finishes here the last two years, 16,25,58,23,42,1,13,5,9,8 finishes in his last ten stroke play events, 9th in Approach, 33rd in SG: OTT, 19th in Fairways Gained, 23rd in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained
Cameron Davis: 9500: +2200 – I decided to play him over Tom Kim last week but I’m going right back to him this week, finished T29 his only time here last year, was inconsistent last season but played in much stronger fields, 7,3,40,6,7,10,MC,17,33 finishes in his last ten events, 23rd in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 37th in Fairways Gained, 34th in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 5 Scoring, 9th in SG: ARG, 34th in Putting, 43rd in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained
Aaron Rai: 8000: +6000 – Came back last week after not playing since the FedEx St. Jude with a 28th place finish at the Shriners, pops in my model at his price, finished T36 his only time here last year, 28,49,MC,20,MC,9,24,3,MC,12 finishes in his last ten events, 8th in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 1st in Fairways Gained, 72nd in Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 27th in SG: ARG, 48th in Putting, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 27th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Fairways Gained (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 175-200 yards (10%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (15%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I have a bit smaller of a card this week with elevated odds because of the smaller field, so limiting a bit of exposure
Bets
Outrights
.9u Collin Morikawa (+1200)
.7u Rickie Fowler (+1600)
.5u Cameron Davis (+2200)
.2u Aaron Rai (+6000)
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