I went 1-2 last night on the NHL, losing 1.2 units. Tonight we have a smaller four game slate before a loaded one tomorrow. Let’s bounce back here!
Flyers vs. Sabres (7:00)
This could surprisingly be a really fun game. The Sabres are coming off by far their best game of the year so far as UPL shut out the Avs in a 4-0 win at home on Sunday afternoon. Hopefully that continues for Buffalo. Devon Levi is expected to return from his injury and get the against Carter Hart. The Flyers after an impressive hot start to the season have started to sink back down to what I had expected of them, with just one win in their last five games. They’re still playing pretty well on the back end though as Tort’s Flyers have given up the fewest expected goals in the NHL. That said, I think the Sabres are the better team here and I’ll back my boys on the road for half a unit. The trends don’t really fit it all that well but I also like the over in this matchup, which I’ll take for half a unit as well.
Flames vs. Stars (8:30)
I’m shocked the Stars are so cheap in this matchup. Dallas is a fantastic team and they’re off to a fantastic 5-1-1 start. The Flames on the other hand have all kinds of issues, coming into tonight with a 2-6-1 record on a five game losing streak and just one win in their last eight games. I expect the Stars to win this one pretty easily on the road and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over at 5.5, but not enough to bet it.
Avalanche vs. Blues (9:30)
Although both of these teams are coming off shutout losses, this is a huge mismatch. The Avs are coming off shocking back to back 4-0 shutout losses on the road in Pittsburgh and Buffalo after opening the season 6-0. The Blues aren’t a great team at 3-3-1, coming off a 5-0 shutout loss to the Canucks. This is as get-right of a spot you’ll see this early in the season. I expect the Avs to win this game easily to bounce off those two shutouts and dominate the Blues at home tonight. I’ll go with a unit each on the Avs in regulation and the Avs team total over 3.5.
Ducks vs. Coyotes (10:00)
Tonight we have a fun matchup to start off November with the the Anaheim Ducks hosting the Arizona Coyotes. These were two of the worst teams in the NHL last season and they’ve both improved and have been fun to watch in the start to this year. This is the second game between these teams this season after the Coyotes won the first game 2-1 at home on October 21st. In the three games between these teams last season, the Yotes went 1-1-1, losing 5-2 on the road, losing 2-1 in overtime, and then winning 5-4 in overtime. I broke this game down in depth in my article on StatSalt. As I said in that article, I give the Coyotes a pretty big defensive edge in this matchup and I expect them to get their second win against the Ducks this season, this time on the road. Arizona’s been impressive defensively this season. They’ve allowed just the seventh-fewest goals in the NHL, the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.72) and the fewest high-danger shots in the league. Meanwhile, Anaheim has allowed the 13th-fewest goals but they’ve given up given up the third-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.64) and the eleventh-most high-danger shots. I think the price is right here at -120 and I like the Yotes to end the Ducks win streak with a win. I’ll take the Yotes to win on the road here for half a unit. I also like the over in this game as both of these teams have been good offensively to start the season and their games have trended over. The Coyotes have scored the eleventh-most goals in the NHL, on an average of 28.4 shots per game. They’ve generated the twelfth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.22). The Ducks have scored the 14th-most goals in the NHL, on an average of 28 shots per game. They’ve generated the 14th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.98) and the eleventh-most high-danger shots in the league. I expect both teams to be able to score here to put this matchup over the 6.5. I’ll take the over for half a unit as well.
Game Bets
.5u Sabres ML (-105)
.5u Sabres/Flyers over 6.5 (-130)
1u Stars ML (-130)
1u Avalanche in regulation (-145)
1u Avalanche TT over 3.5 (-130)
.5u Coyotes ML (-120)
.5u Coyotes/Ducks over 6.5 (-110)
Record: 56-51 (-9.34 units)
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