After not hitting Tom Kim when he won, the following week I hit the outright on Collin Morikawa as he won the ZOZO Championship. After a nice off week, the PGA Tour goes to a new Tiger Woods designed course, El Cardonal Golf Course at Diamante in Cabo for the World Wide Technology Championship.
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7452 yards, Tiger Woods designed, resort course that Tiger himself said was designed for weekend warriors and not designed for championships, wide fairways with an average width of 60 yards, 48 bunkers, water in play on one hole, every hole basically has an open front as to be able to run the ball up if you like, giant paspalum greens
Tournament Notes
- First year this course has hosted this event
Key Stats
Approach, Birdie+ Gained
Field
134 golfers – Pretty weak field strength
Players
Ludvig Aberg: 11200: +900 – I think the kid finally gets his first win here this week, best player in the field this week, 13,2,14,64,MC,4,40,24,25,61,24 finishes in his last eleven events, 70th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Distance, 41st in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 12th in SG: ARG, 29th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, I know the odds suck at +900 but I have to bet him with the conviction that I have that he wins this week
Stephan Jaeger: 10200: +2800 – One of the top players in this lousy field, hasn’t missed a cut since the RBC Heritage in April, 25,45,20,14,30,13,9,64,24,68,50,11,27,18 finishes in his last 14 events since then, 12th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 33rd in Driving Distance, 58th in Par 3 Scoring, 19th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 10th in SG: ARG, 82nd in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained
Lucas Glover: 10100: +3000 – First in my model this week, this is his first event since the Tour Championship, had two wins in a row before the season ended with 18,22,1,1,MC,5,6,4 finishes in his last eight events, 1st in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 87th in Driving Distance, 1st in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 5 Scoring, 81st in SG: ARG, 30th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained
Chris Gotterup: 8200: +6000 – Pops in my model this week, first PGA Tour event since the Memorial in June, but I think he’s worth a shot here, 26th in Approach, 23rd in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Distance, 30th in Par 3 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 60th in Par 5 Scoring, 99th in SG: ARG, 32nd in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 32nd in Birdie+ Gained
Doug Ghim: 7700: +6600 – I don’t have a ton of faith in him winning but I’ve rode the Ghim Reaper every week of the swing season and just can’t stop with the price on him vs. how much he pops in my model every week, just need him to figure out the putting, MC,MC,17,51,27,MC,26,33,15,12,19,27 finishes in his last twelve events, 5th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 68th in Driving Distance, 39th in Par 3 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, 15th in SG: ARG, 103rd in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Birdie+ Gained
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (15%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
1.2u Ludvig Aberg (+900)
.4u Stephan Jaeger (+2800)
.4u Lucas Glover (+3000)
.2u Chris Gotterup (+6000)
.2u Doug Ghim (+6600)
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A Town's Zone 