Great night on the NHL for me yesterday, going 6-1 to win 3.9 units, almost sweeping the night with the Yotes losing in OT to close out the night with a loss. Tonight we have a huge twelve game slate. Let’s crush it again!
Rangers vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
This should be a great game in the Metro Division. Both of the these teams come into tonight’s game on win streaks as they sit at the top of the Metro. Last season in the four games these divisional teams played, the Rangers went 3-1, winning 5-3 on the road, 6-2 at home, losing 3-2 on the road, and then winning again 2-1 at home. I broke it down in depth in my article on StatSalt. As I said in that article, I’d slightly lean the Rangers win at home, but not enough to bet on it in what I think will be a very close game that’s pretty much a coin flip. I’d also lean the under, but not quite enough to bet on it at 5.5 or pay the extra juice to buy it up to 6. The Rangers have had one of the best defenses in the NHL to start this year. They’ve allowed just the second fewest goals in the league, having given up the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.63) and the twelfth-fewest high-danger shots. The Hurricanes have done a good job at limiting chances, giving up the eleventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.95). With the matchup in goal of Shesterkin and Andersen, this should be a low-scoring grind of a game. I’ll stay off this game completely but it should be a fun one to watch.
Senators vs. Kings (7:00)
I don’t really get how this game is so close to a pick em price. I feel like the Kings are the far better team in this matchup, coming off their 4-1 win in Toronto on Tuesday night. The Sens are coming off a solid 5-2 win in Pittsburgh on Saturday and they’ve been decent at 4-4, but I still don’t get why the price on LA is so cheap here. I’ll take a shot for half a unit. I really like the over though, which I’ll take for a unit.
Red Wings vs. Panthers (7:00)
This should be a really fun matchup. I’d slightly lean the Red Wings win at home and the over, but don’t see any value on betting either side of it. I’ll skip it entirely.
Capitals vs. Islanders (7:00)
This might be the most boring game on the slate in the Metro Division. I’d lean the Isles win on the road and the would lean the under, but not enough to bet on it so I’ll completely lay off this game.
Blue Jackets vs. Lightning (7:00)
This matchup isn’t all the great. The Blue Jackets suck and without Andrei Vasilevskiy I’m not sold on the Lightning. Backup Jonas Johansson has been good in his role as the starter to start the season but tonight third string backup Matt Tomkins is making his second start against Elvis Merzlikins. I’d lean the Bolts still win here but with Tomkins in goal on the road, I don’t quite trust Tampa enough to bet the -165 on them. I like the over though, which I’ll take for half a unit.
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs (7:30)
This is a fantastic matchup between two really solid teams in the Atlantic and should easily be the best game on tonight’s slate. I’d lean the Bruins win this one and would slightly lean the under, but not enough to bet either.
Wild vs. Devils (8:00)
These cross-conference teams are in the second half of a home and home after a close 4-3 win for the Devils at home on Sunday. I cashed in on both NJ and the over in that game and I’m going right back to both of those same bets tonight. I’ll take the Devils for half a unit and the over for a unit.
Oilers vs. Stars (9:00)
With Connor McDavid coming back for the Heritage Classic, the Oilers offense that were in complete disarray finally came alive with a 5-2 win outdoors against the Flames. I think the Stars are still the better team right now and I’d lean they win on the road tonight. That being said, this feels like a game that I’m much better off just skipping. I’ll stay off it completely. I’d slightly lean the over, but I have even less conviction to bet that.
Coyotes vs. Canadiens (10:00)
This cross conference matchup, although when you look at it initially doesn’t seem great, should actually be a blast of a game. I broke it down in depth in my article on StatSalt. The 4-4-1 Arizona Coyotes host the 5-2-2 Montreal Canadiens. Both of these teams were horrible last season but have significantly improved so far this year and have been fun to watch. Last season the Habs won both games between these teams last season, winning 6-2 on the road in Arizona and 3-2 in overtime at home. Even in the second half of a back-to-back, I expect the Coyotes to bounce back from their overtime loss last night and get the win on home ice at the Mullett. They’ve been much better defensively than the Habs have been so far this season. Arizona’s been shockingly good defensively, allowing the seventh-fewest goals in the NHL, giving up just the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.72) and the fewest high-danger shots in the league. Meanwhile, Montreal has allowed the 14th-fewest goals in the NHL, but have given up plenty of scoring chances. They’ve given up the seventh-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.43) and the ninth-most high-danger shots. With them in the second half of a back-to-back though, I just don’t think they’re worth betting on as I’m not really sold on the Yotes yet and Montreal’s played well recently. I do like the over though. Both of these teams have trended over this season and especially with the Coyotes in the second half of a back-to-back, I like that trend to continue tonight. Arizona’s offense has been quite good to start this season. They’re scoring the eleventh-most goals in the NHL, generating the twelfth-most expected goals. Montreal’s improved a bit as well offensively from last year. With the added fatigue of the Yotes in the second half of a back-to-back, I expect them to score enough to supplement the scoring of the Coyotes at home to put this game over. I’ll take the alternate over 6 for half a unit.
Golden Knights vs. Jets (10:00)
Another rematch here of the first round series of last year’s playoffs where the Jets won Game 1 and the Knights then cruised through the rest of that series, winning in five games before going on to lift the Stanley Cup. In the first game this season between these teams the Vegas won 5-3 on the road. I’d expect a similar result here. Both of these teams have played good hockey, especially Vegas who’s 9-0-1 to start this year. We’re getting a nice price on the Golden Knights at home and I’ll take them for a unit.
Kraken vs. Predators (10:00)
This is a pretty gross matchup. I feel like its a coin flip and I’d give Seattle a slight edge at home, but I have no real lean on either side of this. I’d slightly lean the under but not enough to bet that either. I’ll skip this game completely.
Sharks vs. Canucks (10:30)
The Sharks are by far the worst team in the NHL, and arguably could become the worst team in NHL history. I’ve been betting against San Jose every game and especially against a pretty solid Canucks team, I have no reason to stop that tonight. The moneyline is a bit too expensive, but I’ll take Vancouver in regulation for a unit.
Game Bets
.5u Kings ML (-109)
1u Senators/Kings over 6.5 (-125)
.5u Lightning/Blue Jackets over 6.5 (-130)
.5u Devils ML (-111)
1u Devils/Wild over 6.5 (-134)
.5u Coyotes/Canadiens over 6 (-134)
1u Golden Knights ML (-139)
1u Canucks in regulation (-140)
Record: 62-52 (-5.44 units)
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