Had another winning night on the NHL yesterday, going 5-3 to win 1.43 units. Tonight we have just two games before almost every team is in action tomorrow night. Let’s make it three days in a row of wins!
Sabres vs. Flyers (7:00)
These teams just played the first half of the home and home of this series in Philly on Wednesday night. I had my last lacrosse game of my season, so I missed the game but was glad to see that my boys got a 5-2 win despite getting outshot 40-15 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 3.61-2.25. With the Sabres wearing the red and black goathead jerseys, I like Buffalo to get the win at home here. They were outplayed pretty significantly and still won 5-2 on Wednesday. I’ll take them for half a unit even at a kind of steep price of -178, but my hometown bias is kicking in a bit here. I really like the over even better though, and I’ll take the over 6.5 for a unit.
Blues vs. Devils (8:00)
Tonight we have have a pretty big mismatch in this cross-conference matchup as the 6-2-1 New Jersey Devils head to St. Louis to take on the struggling 3-4-1 Blues. Despite the Devils being the much better team last season, the Blues won both games between these teams last season, winning 5-3 at home and then 4-2 on the road in Jersey. The Devils are in the second half of a back-to-back after a 5-3 win in Minnesota last night (double winner for me). I broke this game down in depth in my article on StatSalt. The Devils offense has been phenomenal to start the year. They’re the second-highest scoring team in the NHL, averaging 4.13 goals per game on an average of 32.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.69) and the tenth-most high-danger shots in the league. Meanwhile, the Blues have the second-worst offense in the league, only behind the Sharks, scoring an average of 1.75 goals per game on an average of 25.1 shots per game. They’ve generated the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.2) and the fewest high-danger shots in the league. They have only two players on their roster with two goals so far this season. Even in the second half of a back-to-back, the Devils are the far better team offensively in this matchup and I expect them to win this game easily on the road and the -150 I think is well worth it. I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over, since it’s a perfect 9-0 in Devils games this season, but not quite enough to trust the Blues’ shitty offense to score, especially with how much their defense is over. I considered the Devils team total but I’ll just stick with their moneyline here.
Game Bets
.5u Sabres ML (-178)
1u Sabres/Flyers over 6.5 (-125)
1u Devils ML (-150)
Record: 67-55 (-3.99 units)
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A Town's Zone 