With just two games yesterday, I got reverse swept last night, going 0-3 to lose 3.63 units. Today we have a giant 15 game slate with almost every NHL team in action. Plenty of shots to bounce back.
Terrible scheduling by the NHL here already. I know people like huge slates but its so fucking annoying that last night we only had two games on a Friday night with nothing else on but then they have a loaded slate all bunch together with 15 games on Saturday where they have to go head to head with a huge college football slate. And to make matters worst these games are barely staggered so they’re pretty much all going on at once. This league can’t stay out of their own fucking way. No wonder people don’t watch hockey.
Oilers vs. Predators (3:00)
This is an interesting matchup to get the slate started. Both of these teams haven’t played well at all. I’d lean the Oilers win this one but don’t think they’re even close to worth betting on at the -185 price. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet on that either. I’ll skip this game.
Coyotes vs. Jets (4:00)
This doesn’t look like a great matchup on paper but I think this could be a pretty fun game today. I’d slightly lean the Coyotes get the win here at home at the Mullett and would slightly lean the under, but not enough to bet either. I’ll stay off both of the early games.
Senators vs. Lightning (7:00)
Tonight we have what should be a fun matchup in the Atlantic Division between the 4-3-3 Tampa Bay Lightning and the 4-5 Ottawa Senators. This is the second time these teams have met this season, with the Senators winning the first game between them 5-2 on the road in Tampa on October 15th. In the three games between them last year, the Sens went 2-1, losing 4-3 at home then winning 7-2 and 7-4 on the road. I broke this game down in depth in my article on StatSalt. As I said in that article, I’d lean Sens win at home. Ottawa has won three of the last four games between these teams and I expect that trend to continue and for the Senators to get out of their slump with a win at home in this game. The Sens have been really impressive offensively to start the season. They’re scoring an average of 3.78 goals per game, the fourth-most in the NHL, on an average of 33.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the 16th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.11). Ottawa should be able to score on a Tampa team that has given up the 14th-most goals in the NHL, on an average of 34.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fifth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.45) and the seventh-most high-danger shots in the league. Ottawa has been good at limiting chances for their opponents, given up the twelfth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3) and the fifth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. Tampa’s struggled to generate chances offensively. Despite scoring the ninth-most goals in the NHL, they’ve generated the eleventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.96) and the second-fewest high-danger shots in the league. I don’t like it quite enough to bet on though, with the slump that they’re in so I’ll stay off the side here. I like the over quite a bit in this matchup though. Both of these teams have been trending over with solid scoring but struggling defense and all four of their last four games have easily gone over the 6.5 total. The Lightning have scored the ninth-most goals in the NHL but have allowed the 14th-most in the NHL, on an average of 34.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fifth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.45) and the seventh-most high-danger shots in the league. The Senators have been really good offensively as I said above, but they’ve still allowed the tenth-most goals in the NHL, despite limiting offensive chances against them.
Maple Leafs vs. Sabres (7:00)
Last night my Sabres let me down, losing 5-1 at home (double loser for me), even in the red and black jerseys, dropping to 4-5 on the season. Statistically the game was a lot closer than the scoreboard read. Buffalo outshot the Flyers 22-19 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 2.77-2.57. The Leafs are one of the best teams in the East this season and come into tonight’s game with a 5-3-2 record. They’re in a bit of a slump, coming into tonight’s game on a three-game losing streak after a 3-2 shootout loss in Boston on Thursday night. Despite how close the game ended up becoming, the Leafs were outshot 40-35 and were dominated by the Bruins by an expected goal rate of 4.73-2.18.I broke this game down in depth in my article on StatSalt. Especially with the added fatigue of the Sabres playing in the second half of a back-to-back after last night’s loss to the Flyers, I expect the Leafs to bounce back from their three-game losing streak with a big win tonight on home ice. Toronto’s had the much better offense so far, having generated the eighth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.41) and the fourth-most high-danger shots in the league. Meanwhile, the Sabres have generated the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.79) and the fourth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. The moneyline is too expensive for me at -215, but I’ll bet against my boys and take the Leafs in regulation for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the under but no way am I betting it.
Red Wings vs. Bruins (7:00)
The Bruins have been incredible to start the season, still without a loss in regulation and with the best defense in the league. The Red Wings after a hot start to the year have since cooled off, with just one win in their last five games to drop to 6-4-1. I like the B’s to stay hot and get a win on the road tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the under here, which is 9-1 in Bruins games this year, but I’ll just stick to the Boston ML.
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
This matchup stinks. Both of these teams are lower tier, middle of the road teams that I don’t expect to make the playoffs. I’d give a slight edge to the Caps at home but not enough to bet on them. I’ll lay off this game completely.
Blues vs. Canadiens (7:00)
Last night the Blues shocked me with a 4-1 win at home against the Devils (big loser for me). They’re still a terrible team though, with one of the worst offenses in the NHL. I’d lean the Habs win this game on the road tonight with St. Louis in the second half of a back-to-back, but not enough to bet on it
Flyers vs. Kings (7:00)
I broke this game down with an article I wrote on StatSalt. The Flyers are off to a better start than a lot of people thought to start the season, coming into tonight’s game with a 5-5-1 record, which still isn’t all that great. Last night they picked up their second win in their last seven games, winning 5-1 on the road in Buffalo. They scored twice in the opening 1:31 of the game on their way to the victory and but were outshot 22-19 and were outplayed by the Sabres by an expected goal rate of 2.77-2.57. Especially with the Flyers in the second half of a back-to-back, I love the Kings to get a win here on the road. They’re the far better team in this matchup. LA’s offense is spectacular, scoring an average of 4.2 goals per game, the third-most in the NHL, on an average of 33 shots per game. They’ve generated the fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.74) and the most high-danger shots in the league. I expect the added fatigue of Philly in the second half of a back-to-back to lead LA to an easy win on the road here. I’ll take the Kings for a unit at a pretty good -162 price on the road. I like the over in this game, expecting both teams to score. The Kings offense is one of the best in the NHL, scoring the third-most goals in the league, having generated the fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.74) and the most high-danger shots. They should be able to score at ease on a fatigued Flyers team that’s on the second half of a back-to-back and giving up the ninth-most goals in the NHL. Philly’s offense hasn’t been bad, scoring the 14th-most goals in the NHL, on an average of 33.3 shots per game. They’ve generated the tenth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.29) and the eighth-most high-danger shots in the league. I expect them to score a few goals to put this game over the 6.5 total. I’ll take the over for half a unit.
Islanders vs. Hurricanes (7:30)
This is a defensive grind of a game on Long Island tonight between two very good defenses. I’d lean the Canes win this one on the road as the much better team but they haven’t really proven enough to me in their 6-5 start for me to warrant betting on them. I do like the under and I’ll take the alternate under 6 here for half a unit.
Blackhawks vs. Panthers (8:00)
The Blackhawks stink, even with Bedard. After their rookie party in Vegas, they got dominated 8-1 in Arizona on Monday night. I’d expect the Panthers win this game on the road and although the moneyline is a bit too expensive for me at -195, I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit.
Wild vs. Rangers (8:00)
The price on this game doesn’t make much sense to me. The Rangers are on fire with one of the best defenses in the NHL, coming into tonight’s game on six game win streak to improve to 8-2 on the season. The Wild meanwhile are on a four game losing streak with pretty terrible value. I don’t understand why Minnesota is favored at home in this game and I’ll take the Rags to win on the road as an even money dog for half a unit.
Canucks vs. Stars (10:00)
This should be a really good game tonight in Vancouver. Both of these teams have been fantastic to start off the year and I think it ends up being a pretty close matchup. I’d slightly lean the Stars win this one on the road and would lean the over as well, but this is pretty close to a coin flip to me and I’ll lay off it entirely.
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche (10:00)
This should be an incredible game, which I think should be a preview of the Western Conference Finals. This one’s pretty much a coin flip. I’d lean the Golden Knights win it at home in the Fortress and the under, but not enough to bet either. Sit back and enjoy the best hockey game of the season so far.
Kraken vs. Flames (10:00)
The Flames have been horrible to start the year, far underperforming as they’re 2-7-1 on the season and on a six game losing streak with just one win in their last nine games. The Kraken after their slow start seem to have picked it up. I like Seattle to win this one at home and I’ll take them for half a unit in a pick’em.
Sharks vs. Penguins (10:00)
The Penguins have really struggled to start the season but they’re not even close to the level of how bad the Sharks are. San Jose is easily the worst team in the NHL this season and could end up being one of the worst in history. They just got completely shit pumped 10-1 by the Canucks on Thursday night. I keep smashing teams playing against them and I’ll continue that tonight with a unit on the Pens in regulation on the road. I’m going to start looking at alt -2.5 spreads and even some -3.5 spreads against the Sharks for nice + money prices, but tonight I’ll just stick with the unit on Pittsburgh in regulation.
Game Bets
.5u Senators/Lightning over 6.5 (-134)
.5u Maple Leafs in regulation (-122)
.5u Bruins ML (-129)
1u Kings ML (-162)
.5u Kings/Flyers over 6.5 (-112)
.5u Hurricanes/Islanders under 6 (-145)
.5u Panthers in regulation (-120)
.5u Rangers ML (+100)
.5u Kraken ML (-110)
1u Penguins in regulation (-152)
Record: 67-58 (-7.62 units)
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