Last night I went 1-1-1 on the NHL, losing 0.76 units as Vegas took their first regulation loss, giving up four goals in the third period to the Ducks to blow a 2-0 lead and lose 4-2. Tonight we have four games, let’s bounce back!
I added my first future of the season. I think the Vegas Golden Knights are easily the best team in the NHL this year and they’re my pick to repeat and win the Cup on back to back years. I thought the +1000 price on Fanduel for them to lift Lord Stanley has great value, and it’s already between +700-750 on other books. I’ll take the Knights for 4 units, and I think worst case there should be good cash out or hedge equity on them in the playoffs.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning (7:00)
This should be a fun game in a rematch of the first round of the playoffs the last two years. The Leafs are in a pretty big slump right now, coming into tonight’s game on a four game losing streak after a 6-4 loss at home against my Sabres on Saturday night. The Bolts have played pretty well this season. In the first game between these teams, they needed overtime for the Leafs to win 4-3 in overtime on the road in Tampa. I like the Leafs to bounce back and end their losing streak with a win at home tonight, which I’ll take for half a unit. I like the over even better though, which I’ll take for a unit.
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
This isn’t a great matchup. I was shocked that the Panthers lost 5-2 in Chicago on Saturday and gave me a loss, but I’m going right back to them tonight against just as bad of a Columbus team. I’ll take Florida in regulation for half a unit.
Stars vs. Bruins (8:00)
Tonight we have what should be a phenomenal cross-conference matchup between the 7-2-1 Dallas Stars and the 9-1-1 Boston Bruins. Both of these teams have played fantastic hockey so far this season and they’re both coming off losses in their last game. The B’s are coming off their first regulation loss of the year, a 5-4 loss in Detroit on Saturday night, getting outscored 3-1 in the third period while the Stars are coming off a 2-0 shutout loss on the road in Vancouver to the Canucks. Last year the Bruins won both games between these teams, winning 3-1 on the road in Dallas and then 3-2 in overtime at home in Boston. I broke this game down in depth in my article on StatSalt. I like the Bruins to get the win here tonight and bounce back from their first regulation loss of the season with a win on the road in Dallas. The price on this game is fantastic with Boston as a +123 underdog. I give them an edge offensively in this matchup. The B’s have scored an average of 3.18 goals per game, the 15th-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.8 shots per game. They’ve generated the 16th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.13) and the 15th-most high-danger shots in the league. Meanwhile, the Stars have scored an average of 2.9 goals per game, the twelfth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 29.2 shots per game. I feel like that’s too much value to pass up on and I’ll take them for half a unit. The play I like even more though is the under with both of these teams having two of the best defenses in the NHL. Boston has been the best team in the NHL defensively this season. They’ve allowed an average of 1.91 goals per game, the fewest in the NHL, on an average of 30.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.68) and the sixth-fewest high-danger shots. Dallas has been fantastic on the back end as well. They’ve allowed an average of 2.5 goals per game, the fifth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 33.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 14th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.14) and the fifth-fewest high-danger shots. This should be a fantastic goaltending matchup between two of the best goalies in the league to start the year in Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman. Swayman has a 5-0 record this season with a 1.38 GAA, a .954 save percentage, and a shutout while Oettinger has a 5-1-1 record, a 1.97 GAA, and a .938 save percentage. I’ll take the alternate under 6 for a unit.
Canucks vs. Oilers (10:00)
The Oilers are broken. They’re off to an atrocious 2-7-1 to start the year and their offense hasn’t been able to do anything to start the season, even with McDavid back from his injury. Meanwhile the Canucks are flying high with their 8-2-1 start to the year and they’re 4-0-1 coming off a 2-0 shutout win against a solid Stars team on Saturday to extend their win streak. These teams played a home and home to start the season, with the Canucks winning both of those games, 8-1 at home and then 4-3 on the road. I expect them to win again with Edmonton in complete disarray, and with great value at -104, I’ll take Vancouver for half a unit.
Game Bets
.5u Maple Leafs ML (-152)
1u Maple Leafs/Lightning over 6.5 (-130)
.5u Panthers in regulation (-143)
.5u Bruins ML (+123)
1u Stars/Bruins under 6 (-141)
.5u Canucks ML (-104)
Futures
4u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
Record: 71-66-1 (-10.06 units)
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