I had a really solid night on the NHL yesterday, going 5-1 to win 2.9 units, my only loss with the Panthers needing OT to get their win and I had them in regulation. Tonight we have a big ten game slate, let’s win again!
Canadiens vs. Lightning (7:00)
Last night the Lightning blew a 4-1 lead and went on to lose 6-5 in overtime to the Leafs (double winner for me). I’d lean they bounce back with a win on the road against the struggling Habs, but not enough to bet on it with them in the second half of a back to back. I’ll go right back to the over though for half a unit.
Hurricanes vs. Sabres (7:00)
My Sabres bounced back on Saturday night with a nice 6-4 win on the road in Toronto after a 5-1 loss at home to the Flyers on Friday. I don’t love this game though. We haven’t won on the road in Carolina since 2006 and I don’t really see that happening tonight. I’ll take the Canes in regulation for half a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Islanders vs. Wild (7:30)
This is an an interesting cross-conference matchup between the 5-2-3 New York Islanders and the 4-5-2 Minnesota Wild. Last season the Wild won both of the games between these teams, both low-scoring matchups, winning 3-1 at home and then 2-1 in overtime on the road. I broke this game down in depth as one of my final two NHL articles on StatSalt. The Minnesota Wild have the much better offense in this game and I’d lean they win this matchup on the road on Long Island. The Wild have been very good offensively to start this season. They’ve scored an average of 3.55 goals per game, the ninth-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.39) and the eighth-most high-danger shots in the league. Meanwhile, the Islanders’ offense has struggled. They’ve scored an average of 2.7 goals per game, the ninth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 31 shots per game. They’ve generated the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.88) and the sixth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. I like the price here with Minnesota as a +115 underdog, but not quite enough to bet on with how poorly their defense has performed, so I’ll stay off the side. I do like the over though. The over is 9-2 in Wild games this season and I expect that trend to continue tonight. The total on this game is low at 5.5, and I think it easily gets there. The Wild offense has been very good and I expect them to score tonight.T hey’ve scored an average of 3.55 goals per game, the ninth-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.39) and the eighth-most high-danger shots in the league. Despite the Islanders allowing just the seventh-fewest goals in the NHL, when you look at the underlying statistics behind that, they’ve given up a ton of chances, giving up the fifth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.47) and the eleventh-most high-danger shots in the league. Minnesota’s defense has really struggled. They’ve allowed an average of 4.18 goals per game, the second-most in the NHL, only behind the Sharks, on an average of 33.2 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 16th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.12) and the 13th-most high-danger shots. The Isles should be able to score enough here to get this game to at least six goals. I’ll take the over 5.5 here for half a unit.
Rangers vs. Red Wings (7:30)
This should be a fantastic matchup between the 8-2-1 New York Rangers and the 7-4-1 Detroit Red Wings. The Rangers went 1-1-1 last season against the Red Wings. They lost 3-2 in overtime at home, dominated in an 8-2 win in the next game at home, and then lost 4-1 in Detroit. I broke this game down in depth as one of my final two NHL articles on StatSalt. I’d lean the Rangers win here, giving edge defensively in this matchup and I expect them to bounce back from their shootout loss on Saturday with a win on home ice tonight. New York has one of the best defenses in the NHL this year. They’ve allowed an average of 2.09 goals per game, the third-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27.5 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the sixth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.85). Meanwhile, the Red Wings have struggled a bit on the back end. They’ve allowed an average of 3.08 goals per game, the 16th-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 30.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 14th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.14) and the 15th-most high-danger shots. I don’t like it enough to bet on though with how well the Red Wings offense has played. I’d lean the under in this matchup with the elite defense of the New York Rangers leading the way. The under in their games this season has gone 8-3. They’ve allowed the third-fewest goals in the NHL and the sixth-fewest expected goals. I expect them to limit the scoring opportunities of the Red Wings. Detroit’s defense has been around mid-tier in the NHL, but the Rangers offense has struggled a bit, scoring the 14th-fewest goals in the NHL. They’ve generated the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.76) and the fewest high-danger shots in the league. I don’t see this game getting over the 6.5 total and think this ends up being a defensive battle, but again I don’t like it enough to bet on. I’ll stay off this game entirely.
Blues vs. Jets (8:00)
This isn’t a great game and I probably won’t watch a minute of it. In the first game between these teams this year in Winnipeg I don’t think either of these teams are great, but I like the Jets to win this one again and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Flames vs. Predators (9:00)
This matchup stinks. I’d lean the Preds win on the road and would slightly lean the under but I’m not touching this game.
Coyotes vs. Kraken (9:00)
This should be a fun game. I don’t really have much of a lean on either side of this game. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet on it, so I’ll stay off this one completely.
Avalanche vs. Devils (10:00)
This one’s interesting. The Avalanche are coming off an embarrassing 7-0 shutout loss to Vegas on Saturday night in a game that I thought would be a decent preview of the matchup I expect to be the Western Conference Championship. That was their third shutout loss in their last four games. The Devils have played great but they’re still missing two of their best players in Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. It was fine on Sunday for them in their 4-2 win in Chicago, but this is much tougher matchup tonight. I like the Avs to bounce back here and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Ducks vs. Penguins (10:00)
On paper this doesn’t look like all that great of a matchup but I think this could actually be a really fun game. These teams just played a week ago in Pittsburgh with the Ducks getting a 4-3 win on the road. The Ducks are on an impressive six game win streak to improve to 7-4 on the year. They just upset the Golden Knights with a 4-2 win at home, coming back from down 2-0 to give Vegas their first regulation loss of the year. The Pens haven’t impressed me at all but just put up ten goals in San Jose. I’d lean the Penguins win cause they’re the better team in this matchup but to me there is just too much value on the Anaheim here at home at +162 to pass up, which I’ll take for half a unit. I like the over even better though, which I’ll take for a unit.
Sharks vs. Flyers (10:30)
The Sharks are the worst team in the NHL and can arguably be the worst in history. They still are looking for their first win of the year and have given up ten goals in each of their last two games. They’re an auto-bet against them every day, and even though the Flyers aren’t great, I’ll take them in regulation for a unit.
Game Bets
.5u Lightning/Canadiens over 6.5 (-130)
.5u Hurricanes in regulation (-135)
.5u Islanders/Wild over 5.5 (-127)
.5u Jets ML (-139)
.5u Ducks ML (+162)
1u Penguins/Ducks over 6.5 (-130)
1u Flyers in regulation (-120)
Futures
2u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
Record: 76-67-1 (-7.16 units)
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