This week with a pretty lousy field, the PGA Tour heads down to Port Royal Golf Course in Bermuda for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 6828 yards, very short yardage course with most golfers hitting less than driver off the tee on most holes besides the Par 5s, the Par 5s are short with all three under 555 yards and they’re the three easiest holes on the course with the ability for the entire field including the shortest hitters to get there in two, six of the Par 4s are under 400 yards with only one on the course playing over 450 yards (and only from the back tee boxes), all four Par 3s are over 200 yards, average sized fairways with bunkers in the landing areas, lots of elevation changes throughout the course especially off the tee, Zoysia grass rough shouldn’t be too thick or penal, water in play on five holes, small to average sized Bermuda grass greens without much slope or undulation and are pretty soft and slow, weather is always a factor here with a ton of wind that changes the way the course plays out each year, driving accuracy here is much lower than tour average (~54% vs. 62%)
Tournament Notes
- This is only the fifth year of this event with the first year being an alternate field event the same week of the WGC-HSBC Championship, which no longer exists
- This area has gotten a ton of rain the last few weeks which should slow down the greens and the course even more
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 4 Scoring
Field
131 golfers – Horrible field strength, the worst of the year, including in the swing season
Last Year’s Champion: Seamus Power (-19)
Runner Up Last Year: Tomas Detry (-18)
Players
Lucas Glover: 9500: +2500 – First in my model this week, T63 here his only time here last year, last week at the World Wide Technology Championship where he finished 59th was his first event since the Tour Championship, 59,18,22,1,1,MC,5,6,4 finishes in his last nine events, 1st in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 5th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 15th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 1st in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 78th in SG: ARG, 29th in Putting, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance
Taylor Pendrith: 9100: +2500 – Despite his driving being the best part of his game he actually plays better on shorter courses, maps out well for this course, T5 his only time here in 2022, 15,3,MC,MC,MC,6,14 finishes in his last seven events, 25th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 89th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 6th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 9th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 67th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 63rd in SG: ARG, 61st in Putting, 30th in Opportunities Gained, 37th in Birdie+ Gained, 8th in Bogie Avoidance
Doug Ghim: 9000: +3300 – He need to finally win for me after riding him all swing season with how much he’s popped in my model every week, he needs to finally have a good putting week and his T2G game has been fantastic, MC,T14,MC finishes here, 15,MC,MC,17,51,27,MC,26,33,15,12,19,27 finishes in his last 13 events, 5th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 26th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 23rd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 53rd in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 40th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 19th in SG: ARG, 94th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 14th in Birdie+ Gained, 14th in Bogie Avoidance
Alex Smalley: 8900: +2500 – Plays better on shorter courses, T11,T12 finishes here, 61,16,65,MC,MC,2,47,9,25,MC,40,23,18 finishes in his last 13 events, 4th in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 8th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 14th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 82nd in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 59th in SG: ARG, 103rd in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained, 54th in Bogie Avoidance
Brandon Wu: 8100: +4500 – Pops in my model this week, T35,T34 finishes here, 54,51,62,37,58,57 finishes in his last six events, 14th in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 53rd in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 33rd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 54th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 48th in SG: ARG, 52nd in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 49th in Birdie+ Gained, 65th in Bogie Avoidance
Peter Kuest: 7900: +7000 – First time here, not sure if the course fit is great but his stats have been pretty good, popping up as fourth in my model, MC,MC,25,MC,45,50,MC,17,4,57,14 finishes in his last eleven events, 30th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 41st in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 3rd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 29th in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 37th in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, 115th in SG: ARG, 5th in Putting, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 12th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Proximity: 100-125 yards (5%)
Proximity: 200+ yards (10%)
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.4u Lucas Glover (+2500)
.4u Taylor Pendrith (+2500)
.4u Alex Smalley (+2500)
.4u Doug Ghim (+3300)
.3u Brandon Wu (+4500)
.2u Peter Kuest (+7000)
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