We’ve reached the final event of the PGA Tour fall swing season with The RSM Classic this week at Sea Island Golf Club in Georgia. Let’s close it out with a winner!
Course Breakdown
Seaside Course (Rounds 1-4)
Par 70, 7005 yards, in dry conditions most golfers should be able to reach both Par 5s in two if the wind isn’t in their face, traditional links style course where wind is the biggest defense on this course, nine Par 4s between 400-450 yards, average sized fairways that get more narrow as you get closer to the hole, lot of golfers will go less than driver off the tee (average driving distance ~276 yards vs. tour average ~283 yards), ~71% of fairways hit here (vs. ~62% tour average), ~74% GIR percentage which is much higher than ~66% tour average, fairly tough and thick rough but the course is so short that it isn’t too penal, bunkers, sandy native areas, seaside vegetation, water and marshland if you miss the fairway, fairways are rolling and hilly and should play firm, large overseeded Bermuda greens, most greens are elevated with lots of slope and undulation, bunkers and thick rough guarding the greens
Plantation Course (Rounds 1-2)
Par 72, 7058 yards, redesigned a few years back and played more difficult than it used to be but is still the slightly easier course of the two, all the Par 5s are reachable in two with none being longer than 560 yards, wide tree lined fairways and way more bunkers than the Seaside course, the trees should make wind less of a factor than the seaside course, fairways are relatively flat with a good amount of roll, much smaller greens than the Seaside course with more bunkers guarding them than Seaside, greens are firm with a lot of slope added with golfers forced to hit certain quadrants of the green to have a shot at birdie
Tournament Notes
- Last PGA Tour event of the 2023 calendar year
- This has been a two course rotation since 2015 with all the events prior just taking place on the Seaside course
- SEC Championship is usually played on this course
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (23.3% on Seaside Course)
Corollary Courses
Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage), Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) – six of the last 13 winners here have a T5 or better on one of these two courses prior to their win here (Svennson, who won last year had a 7th place finish at the Sony previously)
Field
155 golfers – pretty terrible field strength to close out the year
Last Year’s Champion: Adam Svensson (-19)
Runner Up Last Year: Callum Tarren, Sahith Theegala, Brian Harman (-17)
Players
JT Poston: 9300: +3000 – 21,MC,MC,14,MC,MC,MC finishes here, 3,22,24,7,2,41,6,6 finishes in his last eight events, 13th in Approach, 107th in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 85th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 44th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 43rd in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Eric Cole: 9000: +3000 – He’s my pick to finally get his first win this week, hasn’t missed a cut since the Charles Schwab in May, finished 39th his only time here last year, 2,3,35,4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24 finishes in his last 14 events, 5th in Approach, 116th in SG: OTT, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 7th in SG: ARG, 17th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 65th in Bogie Avoidance
Stephan Jaeger: 8800: +4500 – Hasn’t missed a cut since the RBC Heritage in April, 46,MC,MC,29 finishes here, 45,25,45,20,14,30,13,9,64,24,68,50,11,27,18 finishes in his last 15 events, 15th in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 27th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 115th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 17th in SG: ARG, 97th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained, 8th in Bogie Avoidance
Doug Ghim: 7400: +8000 – Once again pops in my model cause everything besides his putting is great stat-wise, has missed the cut in three of his last four events, 40,18,65 finishes here, MC,15,MC,MC,17,51,27,MC,26,33,15,12,19,27 finishes in his last 14 events, 8th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 16th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 10th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 25th in SG: ARG, 121st in Putting, 8th in Opportunities Gained, 38th in Birdie+ Gained, 26th in Bogie Avoidance, I rode him the whole swing season, I can’t stop now on the last one of the year,
Callum Tarren: 7300: +12000 – Finished 2nd here last year after missing the cut the year prior, MC,31,23,43,7,MC,13 finishes in his last seven events, 22nd in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 29th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 71st in SG: ARG, 107th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 33rd in Birdie+ Gained, 28th in Bogie Avoidance
Sam Ryder: 7200: +11000 – Pops in my stats and he’s cheap enough to bet, terrible course history here with MC,MC,MC,MC,MC,61 finishes here, 10,64,28,51,14,31,38,7 finishes in his last eight events, 3rd in Approach, 93rd in SG: OTT, 28th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 7th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 42nd in SG: ARG, 91st in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 61st in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (5%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (15%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Let’s hit the winner this week to close the season
- I have a bit of a smaller card this week with bigger long shots
Bets
Outrights
.4u JT Posten (+3000)
.4u Eric Cole (+3000)
.3u Stephan Jaeger (+4500)
.2u Doug Ghim (+8000)
.1u Sam Ryder (+11000)
.1u Callum Tarren (+12000)
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