Last week I pretty much broke even on college football conference championship weekend, going 7-3 but only winning 0.04 units. This weekend its only one classic game on the NCAA football slate before bowl season, Army vs. Navy, this year at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts with a 3 pm kickoff. The only game in sports where the guys playing on the field are willing to die for those watching the game.
This year this matchup’s very close with both teams coming into this week with 5-6 records and playing very similar football, relying on the run offensively and playing solid defense.
The Army Black Knights are 5-6 on the season, coming into this week on a three game winning streak after a 28-21 win over Coastal Carolina on November 18th. Their offense has been horrendous this season, averaging just 20.8 points per game, ranking 111th in the nation. Their passing offense has been horrible, averaging just 107.3 yards per game and they’ve rushed for an average of 208.3 yards per game. Defensively the Black Knights been pretty solid though, ranking 38th in the nation as they’ve allowed an average of 22 points per game. They’ve given up an average of 188.7 passing yards and 180.5 rushing yards per game.
The Navy Midshipmen are 5-6 as well, coming off a 59-14 blowout loss at SMU on November 25th. The Navy offense has been arguably even worst than Army’s, ranking 122nd in the nation as they’ve scored an average of just 18.3 points per game. They’ve thrown for an average of only 99 yards per game and have rushed for an average of 200.5. The Midshipmen have given up an average of 22.9 points per game, ranking 46th in the country. They’ve allowed an average of 240.4 yards in the air and 121.9 yards on the ground.
After Navy won 14 straight games between these teams, Army has since won five of the last seven games. Last year Army won 20-17 in OT, in a game that saw a total of 53 passing yards. My bets on that game went 0-2, losing on Navy and losing on the under which was trending way under all game until overtime.
I’d slightly lean Army wins this game, but no way am I betting the side in this game, which is way too close for me.
Prior to last year’s game, that trended under the entire time and needed (double) overtime to hit the over by 4.5 points, every single one of the prior 16 games between these teams hit the under, no matter how low the total was. That makes sense since both teams rely heavily on the run game so this game flys by with very few passing yards with the clock continuing to tick down. Neither team is great offensively either, but they’ve both been decent defensively so I expect the under to hit again this year which is pretty much an auto bet, even at the very low 27.5 total. This game is going to be a grind.
I feel like this is a close game though, and I like a teaser on this too with Navy +8.5 and the under 33.5, which I’ll take for half a unit.
This game’s always so much fun to watch and I can’t wait to see it play out this season.
Bets
1u Under 28
.5u Teaser: Navy +8.5/Under 33.5 (-120)
Record: 193-159-8 (+3.01 units)
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A Town's Zone 