I had a profitable night heading into the Christmas break, going 7-4 to win 0.86 units. Tonight the NHL returns from the nice few days off with a gigantic 14 game slate.
Tread a bit lightly here today as a bunch of these guys are probably still on the Christmas hangover.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators (7:00)
The Battle of Ontario’s always fun. These rivals split their first two games this season, with the Sens winning 6-3 in Toronto on November 8th and the Leafs winning 4-3 in Ottawa on December 7th. The Leafs have been a bit up and down, but they’re still a solid team. They’ve struggled to win convincingly though, with a ton of OT wins and close games against opponents they should beat easily. Their offense has been incredible but the defense and goaltending has been a struggle, in typical Maple Leafs fashion. Toronto went into the Christmas break with a 4-1 win on Saturday night with a 4-1 win in Columbus. The Sens have been awful this season, in last place in the East. They ended a six game losing streak to go into the break on Saturday with a big 5-4 overtime win against the Penguins. Similar to Toronto, they’ve been good offensively, but have really been horrible defensively. I like the Leafs to win this one at home and I’ll take them for half a unit. I really like the over, which I’ll take (even at 7) for a unit.
Lightning vs. Panthers (7:00)
The rivalries continue with the Battle of Florida with these teams split by just a point in the standings. The Lightning have been on fire, going into the Christmas break with three straight wins after a 2-1 shootout win in Washington on Saturday and they have seven wins in their last ten games. They’ve been good offensively but have struggled defensively at times. The Panthers are in a bit of a slump right now, but still tied with Toronto for second in the Atlantic. They beat Vegas 4-2 to go into the break but have just two wins in their last six games. In the opposite fashion of Tampa, the Panthers have been great defensively, but have struggled a bit offensively. This game’s pretty much a coin flip to me. I think the Panthers are the slightly better team but I don’t see any value in betting them on the short trip down the road. I’d slightly lena the under, but not enough to bet that either with the Bolts trending over. I’ll stay off this game completely.
Devils vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
Pretty lousy matchup here in the Metro Division. The Devils have been a good team this season and their offense has been elite, but they’ve struggled defensively. They ended a three game losing streak going into the break with a 3-2 win against the Red Wings at home. They’re still out of the playoff picture and have some work to do. The Blue Jackets have sucked, in last place in the Metropolitan. They have just three wins in their last ten games, going into the break with a 4-1 loss to the Leafs. Columbus has been okay offensively but their defense has been one of the worst in the NHL. These teams split their first two games this season, with the Jackets winning 2-1 in Jersey and the Devils answering back with a 6-3 win in Columbus. I like the Devils to win this game tonight pretty easily. The moneyline is too expensive, but I’ll take them for half a unit in regulation. I also like the over a lot, which I’ll take at 6.5 for half a unit as well.
Rangers vs. Capitals (7:00)
This should be a solid matchup between these two Metro Division teams. The Rangers lead the Eastern Conference and have been on fire all year. They’ve been phenomenal on both ends of the ice. Going into the Christmas break they had four wins in their last five games, coming off a 4-3 overtime win at home against the Sabres on Saturday. The Capitals have been much better than my expectations this season, a point back from the Flyers for third in the Metro and currently in a Wild Card spot in the East. They’re on a four game point streak, having a three game win streak come to an end with their 2-1 shootout loss at home against the Lightning on Saturday night. Washington’s offense as struggled mightily, but their defense has been fantastic. The Caps won the first game between these teams at home with a surprising 4-0 shutout. I like the Rangers to answer back and win this game and will take them in regulation for half a unit. I really like the under too and will take the alternate under 6 for half a unit as well.
Sabres vs. Bruins (7:30)
Not a great matchup for my Sabres tonight. Going into the Christmas break, we lost 4-3 in overtime against the Rangers and have one win in our last four games (a dominant 9-3 win over the Leafs). We’ve sucked on both ends of the ice, especially defensively. The Bruins are in a big slump right now, despite leading the Atlantic. They went into the Christmas break on a four game losing streak after a 3-2 loss in Minnesota on Saturday. The B’s have been good this season though, especially defensively. We split our first two games against Boston, getting blown out 5-2 at home, in a game that looked a lot worse than the final score, then pulled off a surprisingly really good 3-1 win in Boston. I fully expect the Bruins to beat us here and the price is much cheaper than I thought it would be. I’ll take the B’s for half a unit. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Islanders vs. Penguins (7:30)
Interesting Metro Division matchup tonight. The Islanders, who went into the Christmas break with a 5-4 win in Carolina, have been hot lately, in second place in the Metro. They’ve picked up at least a point in 17 of their last 19 games. The Penguins have struggled this season, but have been pretty good lately with a 4-1-1 record in their last six games. They’ve been a solid team defensively and Jarry’s been great in goal but they have sucked offensively. I’d slightly lean the Isles at home and the over in this game, but I don’t like it enough to bet on it. I’ll stay off this matchup completely.
Blues vs. Stars (8:00)
A month ago this would’ve been one of the easiest bets on the Stars but this has actually become a decent matchup here. The Stars have been great this season, tied with the Avs in first place in the Central. Coming off a 3-2 win in Nashville, they’ve picked up at least a point in each of their last six games, with five wins in that span. The Blues looked completely dead early in the year, but they’ve been relatively decent lately and on a bit of a hot streak with four wins in their last five games, coming off a 7-5 win against the Blackhawks at home on Saturday. These teams needed overtime to determine both of their previous games, with the Stars winning 2-1 in a shootout at home and then the Blues answering back with a 4-3 overtime win at home. The Stars are the better team here and I full expect them to win tonight on the road. I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I’ll just stick with Dallas here.
Predators vs. Hurricanes (8:00)
This should be a fun cross conference game. The first game between these teams on December 15th was determined by a shootout, with the Predators winning 6-5 on the road in overtime. The Preds have been surprisingly really good this season. They’ve been hot lately, with 14 wins in their last 19 games. The Hurricanes have been a pretty big disappointment this year. I had expectations on them winning the East, but they might struggle to even make the playoffs. They’ve been in a slump big lately too with just three wins in their last eleven games. I do think the Canes are the better team here, but I don’t see any edge in betting anything on this game. If anything, there’s probably value in the Preds as a home dog, but realistically the best play on this game is nothing at all. Best to stay off it.
Wild vs. Red Wings (8:00)
This is an interesting cross conference game here. The Wild have been to lately while not being a great team. They went into the Christmas break with three straight wins and six in their last seven games (ten in their last 13). The Red Wings on the other hand have been a decent team but have struggled lately, going into Christmas in a big slump. Coming off a 3-2 loss in Jersey, they have just one win in their last six games and two in their last ten. Detroit won the first game between them 4-1 at home on November 26th. This game’s a complete toss up here to me since the Red Wings are the better team but the Wild are on a much hotter run. I’ll stay off it. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Blackhawks vs. Jets (9:00)
Huge mismatch here in the Central. The Jets have been phenomenal on both ends of the ice this season and have been the biggest shock of the year. With a 5-1 win over the Bruins on Friday night, they’ve picked up at least a point in all but one of their last ten games with an 8-1-1 record in that span. The Blackhawks on the other hand are one of the worst teams in the leagues. Coming off a 7-5 loss in St. Louis on Saturday, they have just one win in their last seven games and five wins in their last 21 games. The Jets won the first game between these teams 3-1 at home on December 2nd. I like them to win in dominant fashion again. I’ll take the Jets in regulation for a unit.
Coyotes vs. Avalanche (9:00)
This may not look like the best game in the Central Division tonight but its actually a lot more interesting to me. These teams just played each other on Saturday to go into the Christmas break with a 4-1 win by the Avs at home. That evened the season series after in the first game between these teams at the Mullett, the Yotes got a 4-3 win in overtime. The loss on Saturday ended Arizona’s four game win streak. The Avs have heated up a bit as well, with three wins in their last four games. Colorado’s the better team here and I’d lean they win on the road, but the Yotes are a pain in the ass to play against and have been really solid at home in their little college rink, where they’re 11-5. I’d lean the over, but Arizona’s defense has played surprisingly well and the Avalanche offense has been a bit up and down, so I’ll just stay off this game completely.
Flames vs. Kraken (9:30)
Pretty boring matchup in the Pacific. These teams both haven’t been great this season but they’re both playing their best hockey right now and they’re tied in points, far out of the playoff picture. The Flames are coming off a 5-3 loss in LA on Saturday that ended their three game win streak. The Kraken have picked up at least a point in each of their last six games and have won four games in that span. Neither of these teams have been good by any means on either end of the ice. The Flames won both previous games between these teams in Seattle, winning 6-3 and then 4-3 in overtime. I like the Flames to win this game tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit (I think betting them for the first time this year). I’d slightly lean the under, but I’m not touching the total here.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights (10:00)
Huge mismatch here in the Pacific tonight. The Golden Knights, despite being in a slump right now have been one of the best teams in the NHL all season this year and one of the favorites to defend and win the Cup again. They are in a pretty bad skid though. Coming off a 4-2 loss in Florida on Saturday night, they’re on a three game losing streak and have just one win in their last five games. The Knights have been a very good team though on both ends of the ice. The Ducks on the other hand are struggling this season, just three points ahead of the Sharks and Blackhawks for the worst record in the league. They only have three wins in their last 18 games. This team’s bad. These teams split their first two games, with the Golden Knights winning 4-1 at home on October 14th and the Ducks answering back with a 4-2 win at home on November 5th. I see this as a fantastic get right spot for Vegas. I’ll take them in regulation for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it.
Kings vs. Sharks (10:00)
Another gigantic mismatch in the Pacific Division. The Kings have been a very good team this season and I think they’re a team that could contend for the Cup. They come into tonight’s game with three wins in their last four games and have played really well on both ends of the ice. The Sharks, coming off a 7-4 loss in Vancouver on Saturday, have been the worst team in the NHL, coming into tonight on a five game losing streak after their little hot run. LA won the first game between these teams easily just eight days ago, winning 4-1 on the road. I’d expect another pretty easy win for them tonight. I’ll take them on the puck line in this expensive matchup for a unit.
Game Bets
.5u Maple Leafs ML (-166)
1u Maple Leafs/Senators over 6.5 (-115)
.5u Devils in regulation (-150)
.5u Devils/Blue Jackets over 6.5 (-148)
.5u Rangers in regulation (-130)
.5u Rangers/Capitals under 6 (-132)
.5u Bruins ML (-148)
.5u Stars ML (-167)
1u Jets in regulation (-141)
.5u Flames ML (-143)
1u Golden Knights in regulation (-139)
1u Kings -1.5 (-137)
Futures
4u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
Record: 240-230-4 (-51.86 units)
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