Last week the 2024 PGA season started in Hawaii and this week it continues with the first full field event of the season with the Sony Open hosted at Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Course Breakdown
7044 yards, Par 70, resort course, winning score should be around -20, lowest driving accuracy course on tour (~53% vs. tour average ~62%) but isn’t really a huge factor here at all historically with plenty of golfers winning and having success from the rough, guys could still go real low with crappy driving accuracy because the fairways are very narrow but the rough is not penal at all, slightly higher than average driving distance here (~290 yards vs. tour average ~282) with a lot of rollout, both Par 5s can easily be eagle’d by all which are the two easiest Par 5s on tour, fourth most eagles here of every course on tour despite only having two Par 5s, all Par 3s under 200 yards, off the tee golfers will see tree lined fairways that are firm, flat and fast, rough isn’t very high but could get thick and gnarly to hit out of with bad lies and last year they raised the rough from 2.5 to 3 inches, bunkers on a few fairways and water is in play on two holes, average to above average sized firm and flat Bermuda greens that are well protected by deep bunkers and the rough around the greens is a lot tougher than off the fairways, wind could play a big factor but as long as the wind is down its a birdiefest
Tournament Notes
- First event of the 2024 One and Done season!
- First full field event of the year with a cut (Top 65 and ties)
- Course history here correlates with yearly success here only second-most on tour behind Augusta, guys that play well here continue to succeed
- Only four winners here since 2010 have been in their 20s, so experience on Tour matters
- 9 of the past 11 winners (17 of last 25) played at the Tournament of Champions the week before (Cam Smith, Russell Henley, and Si Woo Kim were the only ones, Henley was also the 1st player since the 1970 to win their first time there), but their results at the TOC seem to not matter at all (Na and Kuchar sucked at TOC the years they won here)
- Prior to Si Woo last year, the last twelve winners here had a T15 in one of their last three starts before this tourney (Si Woo did in his last four starts before he won)
- Prior to Cam Smith in 2020 and Kevin Na in 2021, the last 9 winners prior to that had a T6 in one of their last 3 starts before this tourney
- 26 of the last 28 winners have played in at least two previous Sony Opens
- 20 of the last 21 winners here have had at least one previous PGA Tour win
- 9 of the last 12 winners ranked inside the top-50 on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting in the season leading up to their win
- Last year Si Woo led the field by over a stroke in approach and led the field in SG: T2G
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie+ Gained, Good Drives Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (25.4%), 175-200 yards (23.3%)
Corollary Courses
- El Camaleon Golf Club (Mayakoba Golf Classic) – two of the last six winners, Matt Kuchar and Patton Kizzire won these two tournaments back to back, Mayakoba in the fall and then Sony the same season
- Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions)
Field
144 golfers – Few talented golfers at the top but not a great field
Defending Champion: Si Woo Kim (-18)
Runner Up Last Year: Hayden Buckley (-17)
One and Done: Ludvig Aberg
One and Done Considerations: Justin Rose, Eric Cole, Ludvig Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton
Players
Eric Cole: 9700: +3300 – I can’t stay off betting him, he’s going to win eventually and I’m still going to be down betting on him, played fantastic in the swing season, I rode him all fall and he wasn’t able to get a win but consistently played great, finished 14th last week at the Sentry with 3,2,3,35,4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24 finishes in his previous 15 events, finished 61st in his first time here last year before he started to pop on leaderboards, 6th in Approach, 109th in SG: OTT, 79th in Good Drives, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 49th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 6th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 4th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 39th in SG: ARG, 8th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained
JT Poston: 9100: +3300 – Finished 5th at the Sentry last week with 44,3,22,24,7,2,41,6,6 finishes in the nine events prior to that, 21,42,MC,MC,20,64 finishes here, 17th in Approach, 97th in SG: OTT, 51st in Good Drives, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 51st in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 70th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 50th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 7th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained
Justin Rose: 8200: +4000 – Pops in my model this week, plays his best golf on short courses, hasn’t played here since 2017 with 2,13,12,MC,20 finishes here, finished 40th at the Sentry last week with 22,20,MC,MC,MC,8,12,9,25,16,36,6,MC,MC,1 finishes in his last 15 events prior, 16th in Approach, 90th in SG: OTT, 52nd in Good Drives, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 12th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 74th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 9th in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 39th in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained
Lucas Glover: 7700: +6600 – Finished 29th at the Sentry last week with 45,59,18,22,1,1,MC,5,6,4 finishes in his ten prior events, MC,5,50,76,MC,MC,64 finishes here, 1st in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 3rd in Good Drives, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 4th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 16th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 84th in SG: ARG, 29th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 11th in Birdie+ Gained, also playing the T5
Adam Svensson: 7700: +5000 – Finished 33rd at the Sentry last week with 33,5,45,41,18,16,15,37,7,37,21,40 finishes in his eleven prior events, 41,7,43 finishes here, 20th in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 22nd in Good Drives, 13th in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 116th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 17th in Proximity 175-200 yards, 36th in SG: ARG, 50th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained, also playing the T5
Aaron Rai: 7500: +8000 – Did not play last week but he pops in my model, 61,MC finishes here the last two years, 21,28,49,MC,20,MC,9,24,3,MC,12 finishes in his last eleven events, 7th in Approach, 27th in SG: OTT, 8th in Good Drives, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, 10th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 61st in Proximity 175-200 yards, 49th in SG: ARG, 83rd in Putting, 48th in Opportunities Gained, 30th in Birdie+ Gained, also playing the T5
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (5%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (10%)
Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)
Proximity 175-200 yards (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- On DraftKings showdown slates, guys that start on the front 9 have an easier chance at getting 3+ birdie streaks, giving a slight edge
Bets
Outrights
.4u Eric Cole (+3300, BetRivers enhanced)
.4u JT Poston (+3300, BetRivers enhanced)
.3u Justin Rose (+4000, BetRivers enhanced)
.2u Adam Svensson (+5000, FanDuel)
.2u Lucas Glover (+6600, BetRivers enhanced)
.2u Aaron Rai (+8000, FanDuel)
T5s
.2u Adam Svensson (+900, DraftKings)
.2u Lucas Glover (+1000, DraftKings)
.2u Aaron Rai (+1400, DraftKings)
DraftKings Lineups
Lineup 1: Eric Cole, JT Poston, Justin Rose, Lucas Glover, Adam Svensson, Aaron Rai
Contests:
$12 – $40K Albatross (Single Entry) GPP
$5 – $25K Caddie (Single Entry) GPP
$3 – $60K Birdie (20 Max) GPP
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