After the Sentry and Sony in Hawaii, this week the PGA Tour starts the California swing with The American Express with the three course rotation at PGA West in La Quinta.

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Course Breakdown

PGA West Stadium Course (All Rounds)

Par 72, 7187 yards, Pete Dye designed, highest birdie+ % from the fairway for any course on tour, toughest of the three courses but still pretty easy compared to tour average, Par 5s are much longer and harder than the other two courses (some of the most difficult to reach in two on tour), very tough Par 3s, average fairways that get narrow at the landing areas, over 90 bunkers and a lot of water and dormant grass if golfers miss wildly off the tee, water in play on seven holes, less than driver on some holes with some forced layups, rough is pretty easy to make it easier for the Pro-Am golfers, lowest sand save percentage of any course on tour, small greens and huge bunkers (including the huge 20 feet deep bunker on 16 that is the fifth-toughest greenside bunker on tour), overseeded POA greens

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course (Rounds 1-3)

Par 72, 7147 yards, one of the top ten easiest courses on tour every year, all the Par 5s are reachable, average to large fairways with lots of bunkers and water, rough isn’t very thick, undulating multi-tiered large greens, overseeded POA greens, water in play on five holes, around 90 bunkers, there’s been multiple 59s shot on this course

La Quinta Country Club (Rounds 1-3)

Par 72, 7060 yards, one of the top three easiest courses on tour, tree-lined average sized fairways, 82 bunkers, water in play on seven holes, average speed greens with a little bit of trouble around them, average sized POA greens

Tournament Notes

• Formerly known as the Desert Classic, CareerBuilder Challenge and Bob Hope Classic
• Three-course rotation of this event with a 54-hole cut and the shitty Pro-Am format that makes this thing pretty much unwatchable till Sunday, since it takes forever with 6 hour rounds
• Course setup rounds 1-3 easier since normal people (usually a bunch of executives from PGA Tour sponsors, won’t see all the celebrities you see at Pebble) have to play with the pros
• Birdiefest, the winner of this event has never been worse than -20
• Longer players won’t hit drivers as often here
• The last two winners here, Jon Rahm and Hudson Swafford, both went to LIV the following season after they won
• A lot of long shots win this event (other than Rahm when he won in 2018 and last year) with guys over +10000 winning much more often than expected here
• 14 of the last 15 winners here have played in at least one of the two Hawaii events the year that they won
• 10 of the last 11 winners here have played this event before the year they won
• 9 of the last 12 winners have had a T15 in one of their last seven starts prior to winning here
• 7 of the last 11 winners here played the Sony Open the week prior to winning, 5 of them made the cut
• TV broadcast of this event is fucking awful, arguably worse than Pebble Beach with the Stadium Course being the only one with Shotlink and TV cameras
• Because only the Stadium Course has Shotlink data, all SG data historically is from just that course, besides scoring (birdie+, etc)
• Historical advantage of starting at La Quinta first but this is partially cause the best players start here since then they’re on TV at the Stadium Course on Saturday
• 80% of all Par 4s on these courses are in the 350-450 yard range

Key Stats

Approach, Good Drives, Proximity 150-175 yards

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (23.5% on the Stadium Course)

Field

156 golfers – Pretty solid field strength for this event with some solid stars at the top

Last Year Champion: Jon Rahm (-27) – not defending since he went to the LIV Tour

Runner Up Last Year: Davis Thompson (-26)

One and Done: Xander Schauffele

One and Done Considerations: Schauffele, Scheffler, Cantlay

Players

Xander Schauffele: 10900: +1200 – One of the top five players in the field, 10,38,2,8,24,17,42,19,10,24,18,2,4,10,19 finishes in his last 15 events, 3,MC,MC finishes his three times here (last year, 2017,2016), 2nd in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 43rd in Good Drives, 1st in Proximity 150-175 yards, 10th in Par 3 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 28th in Par 5 Scoring, 26th in Sand Saves, 61st in SG: ARG, 6th in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained

JT Poston: 9100: +3300 – Popped on the leaderboard last week at the Sony where he finished 6th with 5,44,3,22,24,7,2,41,6,6 in his previous ten events, 6,25,MC,36,7,MC,34 finishes here, 18th in Approach, 111th in SG: OTT, 46th in Good Drives, 44th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 22nd in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in Par 5 Scoring, 18th in Sand Saves, 7th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained

Chris Kirk: 9000: +5000 – After winning two weeks ago at Sentry, last week he gained on approach in all four rounds at the Sony but lost 4 strokes putting, 3,MC,16,MC,MC,21,56,MC,42,7 finishes here, 18,1,28,MC,29,16,MC,MC,21,14 finishes in his last ten events, 15th in Approach, 82nd in SG: OTT, 51st in Good Drives, 15th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 10th in Par 3 Scoring, 33rd in Par 4 Scoring, 86th in Par 5 Scoring, 53rd in Sand Saves, 64th in SG: ARG, 56th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained, 41st in Birdie+ Gained

Eric Cole: 8800: +4000 – I can’t stay off betting him, he’s going to win eventually and I’m still going to be down betting on him, played fantastic in the swing season, I rode him all fall and he wasn’t able to get a win but consistently played great, finished 36 in his only time here last year, 13,14,3,2,3,35,4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24 finishes in his last 17 events, 10th in Approach, 103rd in SG: OTT, 60th in Good Drives, 9th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 1st in Par 3 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 106th in Par 5 Scoring, 50th in Sand Saves, 56th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 6th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained

Aaron Rai: 7700: +12000 – Popping in my model for the second week in a row, 57,21,28,49,MC,20,MC,9,24,3,MC,12 finishes in his last twelve events, MC,59 finishes here the last two years, 7th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 7th in Good Drives, 36th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 109th in Par 3 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 106th in Sand Saves, 62nd in SG: ARG, 86th in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained, 19th in Birdie+ Gained, also added the T5

Sam Ryder: 7200: +20000 – Really pops in my model for his price, first start since the RSM Classic in the fall with 13,10,64,28,51,14,31,38,7 finishes in his last nine events, MC,49,47,29,40,50 finishes here, 4th in Approach, 97th in SG: OTT, 14th in Good Drives, 3rd in Proximity 150-175 yards, 31st in Par 3 Scoring, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 51st in Par 5 Scoring, 115th in Sand Saves, 61st in SG: ARG, 72nd in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, awesome price at 200:1 and I also added the T5

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Good Drives (10%)

Proximity 150-175 yards (10%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

Sand Saves (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained (15%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• Because of the 54 hole cut, missed cuts aren’t quite as detrimental to lineups, so being more aggressive with higher upside plays are a smart idea this week on DraftKings
• First round leaders typically will not start on the Stadium Course
• Showdown slates and some possible matchups might have some advantages based on the course golfers are on that day
• I meant to put both of the T5s in as .1u each to make the outright but screwed it up and doubled up on both of them, which I’m fine with

Bets

Outrights

.9u Xander Schauffele (+1200, FanDuel)

.4u JT Poston (+3300, BetRivers enhanced)

.3u Eric Cole (+4000, BetRivers enhanced)

.2u Chris Kirk (+5000, BetRivers enhanced)

.1u Aaron Rai (+12000, FanDuel)

.1u Sam Ryder (+20000, FanDuel)

T5

.2u Aaron Rai (+2000, DraftKings)

.2u Sam Ryder (+2800, DraftKings)

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