The PGA Tour heads to Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, one of the most iconic venues in golf this week for the Farmers Insurance Open, with an early start going from Wednesday-Saturday.
Course Breakdown
South Course (All rounds): Par 72, 7756 yards, one of the longest and most difficult courses on tour, the longest regular course (non-major) on the PGA Tour, plays 3-4 strokes more difficult on average than the North course, bombers course, seven of the Par 4s are longer than 450 yards, Par 5s are lengthy averaging 590 yards so most golfers won’t be able to reach all the greens in two, off the tee golfers will see narrow tree-lined fairways with a lot of bunkers and even thinner, only about 53% of fairways are hit on average here every year (vs. tour average ~62%), rough is pretty thick and gnarly, lot of holes have a slight dogleg right which favors righties that hit a cut off the tee, average to small sized POA (the only pure POA greens on tour, with most of the other courses we POA greens being blended) greens that are multitiered with undulation and false fronts that are very quick, a lot of the greens are narrow in width and longer front to back, lot of which are guarded in the front by large bunkers and thick but most holes leave an opening in front of the green so golfers have a chance to run up their approach shots with proper placement, tall rough, won’t be as tough as the setup was for the US Open
North Course (Only round 1 or 2): Par 72, 7258 yards, no player has shot their round over par here and won since 1983, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and there is a drivable Par 4 (really need to score on these five holes to even make the cut), off the tee golfers will see average sized fairways with thick-ish rough with some bunkers and trees, but a lot less than the South course, larger bentgrass greens with bunkers guarding them, no shot tracker, significantly lower driving accuracy here (~49% vs. tour average ~62%), higher GIR % here (~72% vs. tour average ~66%)
Both: Kikuya grass on the fairways and rough, across both courses: seven of the eight Par 3s are longer than 200 yards, six or seven long Par 4s of 400-450 yards each round, weather could play a large factor since it is near the ocean and affected by trade winds
Tournament Notes
- This tournament is running from Wednesday-Saturday instead of the usual Thursday-Sunday to not compete with the NFL Conference Championship rounds
- The last three winners here all showed good form early in the season. Homa had three T15s in his first four events of 2023, List had three T30s in his first four events, and Reed had two T6s in his first three events
- 15 of the last 17 winners here had a previous T10 at this event (beside Rahm in his first start here and Scott Stallings)
- 5 of the top 10 (all of the top 4) finishers last year, all of the top 10 finishers in 2022, 7 of the top 9 finishers in 2021 and all of the top 11 finishers in 2019 gained in proximity from 200+ yards
- 9 of the last 10 winners made at least one start in the calendar year prior to their win
- 11 of the last 18 winners finished that season T30 in Driving Distance and 10 of the last 18 winners have finished inside the T25 for the year (Rose was just outside of that at T28). The ones that didn’t had to putt lights out to win
- No winner has ever shot over par on the North Course since 1983
- Good players win here. There has only been 3 shitty winners here in the last 18 years: Scott Stallings (the year he got busted for PEDs) in 2014, Ben Crane in 2010 and Luke List in 2022
- Around 40% of winners here have had a connection to California (growing up here, living here or going to school here), mainly due to the POA greens
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards
Main proximity distance range on approach (South Course): 200+ yards (26.3%)
Field
151 golfers – Pretty strong field strength
Defending Champion: Max Homa (-13)
Runner Up Last Year: Keegan Bradley (-11)
One and Done: Collin Morikawa
One and Done Considerations: Xander, Morikawa
Players
Collin Morikawa: 10200: +1200 – From California, playing really well right now, my top pick to win, 5,1,6,25,13,MC,2,MC,14,29,26,MC,31,10,13 finishes in his last 15 events, 3 and 21 finishes his two times here (last year and 2020), 1st in Approach, 15th in SG: OTT, 115th in Driving Distance, 17th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 31st in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 18th in Par 5 Scoring, 21st in Proximity 200+ yards, 52nd in SG: ARG, 106th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance
Ludwig Aberg: 9700: +2100 – Elite player off the tee and this course should map out perfectly for him as he crushes the ball and is accurate, first time playing this event, 30,47,1,10,13,2,14,64,MC,4 finishes in his last ten events, 89th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 11th in Driving Distance, 39th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 41st in Par 5 Scoring, 95th in Proximity 200+ yards, 24th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 18th in Bogie Avoidance
Eric Cole: 9000: +4500 – I’m still chasing him as he’s still in the Top 5 in my model every single week, can’t stay off betting him, he’s going to win eventually and I’m still going to be down betting on him, played fantastic in the swing season, I rode him all fall and he wasn’t able to get a win but consistently played great, missed the cut in his only time here last year, 21,13,14,3,2,3,35,4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24 finishes in his last 18 events, 10th in Approach, 103rd in SG: OTT, 72nd in Driving Distance, 11th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 8th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 71st in Par 5 Scoring, 40th in Proximity 200+ yards, 25th in SG: ARG, 7th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 42nd in Bogie Avoidance, his price is way better this week than it has been the last few events
Sahith Theegala: 8700: +3000 – Went to college in California, has played well on California course including getting a win in the swing season, although his driving accuracy isn’t great his skill set should be able to make up for it, really good in his two times here the last two years with 4 and 25 finishes, MC,2,MC,19,1,15,13 finishes in his last seven events, 57th in Approach, 95th in SG: OTT, 44th in Driving Distance, 7th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 67th in Par 5 Scoring, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 16th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 99th in Opportunities Gained, 16th in Birdie+ Gained, 59th in Bogie Avoidance
Luke List: 7800: +8000 – Former winner here and I cashed in on him in 2022 at +8000, has had success here especially recently with 25,1,10,36,40,12,MC,MC,68 finishes here, 66,22,19,20,45,18,1,25,35,33,MC,16,57,34 finishes in his last 14 events, 17th in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 18th in Driving Distance, 14th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 76th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 19th in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 33rd in SG: ARG, 104th in Putting, 34th in Opportunities Gained, 10th in Birdie+ Gained, 30th in Bogie Avoidance
Stephan Jaeger: 7800: +8000 – Pops in my model again this week, 53,MC,66,MC finishes here, 52,18,28,45,25,45,20,14,30,13,9,64,24,68,50,11,27,18 finishes in his last 18 events, 31st in Approach, 8th in SG: OTT, 48th in Driving Distance, 78th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 100th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 7th in Par 5 Scoring, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 17th in SG: ARG, 86th in Putting, 53rd in Opportunities Gained, 20th in Birdie+ Gained, 11th in Bogie Avoidance, also taking the T5 on him
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- Stack guys on the North course for Showdown slates on DraftKings and target North course golfers for first round leader bets, since its the easier course and even more so, the guys that start on Hole 1 on the North course, since there’s a nice birdie streak possibility with a stretch of easy holes from 9-12
- Look to live bet guys that start on the South course after round 1 as they should be a few strokes back from the guys that start on the North course and you’ll be able to get nicer odds vs. pre-tournament
- I hit the winner on this event the last two years in a row, hitting Max Homa at 22:1 last year and cashing in on Luke List in 2022 at 80:1
Bets
Outrights
.9u Collin Morikawa (+1200, BetRivers enhanced)
.5u Ludvig Aberg (+2100, BetRivers enhanced)
.4u Sahith Theegala (+3000, FanDuel)
.3u Eric Cole (+4500, BetRivers enhanced)
.2u Luke List (+8000, BetRivers)
.2u Stephen Jaeger (+8000, FanDuel)
T6s
.2u Luke List (+1600, BetRivers each way)
T5s
.2u Stephen Jaeger (+1400, DraftKings)
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